OnlyBucs

Based on production last two seasons, KATOH predicts WAR during first 6 seasons. Conservative insofar as Acuna is #1 with 13.3 WAR:

18. Hayes 8.0 WAR

19. Tucker 7.9 WAR

27. Meadows 7.2 WAR

46. Kellar 5.5 WAR

57. Stallings 5.0 WAR

73. Lolo Sanchez 4.4 WAR

89. Moran 4.2 WAR

Small sample darling: Martin 4.9 WAR

WAR is a stats only evaluation.

I understand Stallings is a good defensive catcher. His hitting holds him back. Last year he started to hit a little. If he could keep that up, he might well be a good player for us.

23213B3D2B4E0 wrote: I understand Stallings is a good defensive catcher. His hitting holds him back. Last year he started to hit a little. If he could keep that up, he might well be a good player for us.


Stallings is why WAR is a terrible stat. Way too much emphasis on defense and base running, which are both opinions/estimates.



Gary Sanchez was at 4.1 and Buster Posey was at 4.0 in 2017. Posey has had two seasons with a 5.0+ WAR in his career.

4D464E4247465D181E695048414646074A46290 wrote: I understand Stallings is a good defensive catcher. His hitting holds him back. Last year he started to hit a little. If he could keep that up, he might well be a good player for us.


Stallings is why WAR is a terrible stat.  Way too much emphasis on defense and base running, which are both opinions/estimates. 



Gary Sanchez was at 4.1 and Buster Posey was at 4.0 in 2017.  Posey has had two seasons with a 5.0+ WAR in his career.








I don't understand how the Stallings prediction or the Posey/Sanchez numbers are indicative of WAR being a bad stat.  Not saying you are wrong, but I'm completely missing what you are trying to illustrate by pointing out those numbers.  How is 0.8WAR/Season for the next six seasons an unreasonable estimate for a catcher with a slightly above average BA, below average power, and above average defense?

5B474A5C5C562F0 wrote: I understand Stallings is a good defensive catcher. His hitting holds him back. Last year he started to hit a little. If he could keep that up, he might well be a good player for us.


Stallings is why WAR is a terrible stat.  Way too much emphasis on defense and base running, which are both opinions/estimates. 



Gary Sanchez was at 4.1 and Buster Posey was at 4.0 in 2017.  Posey has had two seasons with a 5.0+ WAR in his career.








I don't understand how the Stallings prediction or the Posey/Sanchez numbers are indicative of WAR being a bad stat.  Not saying you are wrong, but I'm completely missing what you are trying to illustrate by pointing out those numbers.  How is 0.8WAR/Season for the next six seasons an unreasonable estimate for a catcher with a slightly above average BA, below average power, and above average defense?


Quick side note venting about this sort of predicting stuff.  Gary Sanchez was mentioned above.  It is ridiculous how much he and Judge have over performed.  There is nothing in their minor leagues stats to suggest that they'd explode like this.  They were both 15-20 HR a year guys with a .250-.270 average.  They go up to the hardest level and significantly outperform those numbers.  We rail on our prospects with phrases like "there's nothing in their minor league stats that would indicate a being a difference maker."  Both of those guys looked like solid MLB players.  Not MVPs.  And yet...  Figures it happens to the Yankees.

3F232E3838324B0 wrote: I understand Stallings is a good defensive catcher. His hitting holds him back. Last year he started to hit a little. If he could keep that up, he might well be a good player for us.


Stallings is why WAR is a terrible stat.  Way too much emphasis on defense and base running, which are both opinions/estimates. 



Gary Sanchez was at 4.1 and Buster Posey was at 4.0 in 2017.  Posey has had two seasons with a 5.0+ WAR in his career.








I don't understand how the Stallings prediction or the Posey/Sanchez numbers are indicative of WAR being a bad stat.  Not saying you are wrong, but I'm completely missing what you are trying to illustrate by pointing out those numbers.  How is 0.8WAR/Season for the next six seasons an unreasonable estimate for a catcher with a slightly above average BA, below average power, and above average defense?


I read that as a season average of their WAR stats in their first six years. Meaning, Stallings would be a 5.0 WAR for the next six seasons, not overall combined. Sorry, if I was incorrect.



Even though I read that wrong, WAR is still a bad stat based on too many opinions and estimates.

WAR is a total projection for first 6 seasons. As noted KATOH is very conservative estimate given the number one KATOH is only 13.3. Perhaps Stallings is more than we thought.

I don't understand the ratings

For Stallings to meet those expectations, he would have to be an everyday starter. I don't think Stallings is an everyday catcher. Those projections are bad.

5C617F727D777C5E7661707677130 wrote: For Stallings to meet those expectations, he would have to be an everyday starter. I don't think Stallings is an everyday catcher. Those projections are bad.


not necessarily. That projection is less than 1 WAR per season.



Chris Stewart earned 1 WAR with Bucs in 2014 in 49 games (using Fangraph stats)