OnlyBucs

I checked out Nate Silver's website for the Pirate's chances the next seven games:

Reds: 48%,44%, 46%

Cub: 34%, 40%, 36%

Mets: 57%

That averages out to 43.57% over seven games. Multiply by 7 and Nate says we should expect to win 3.05 games. Nate is one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus, so take it seriously.

In my view the Bucs need to take 5 of 7 in order to not be sellers at trade deadline, and have an outside, albeit slim hope of a wild card. The Reds have been playing good ball, but I was surprised that we are underdogs against them.

It's actually at Reds (3), at Indians (3), home to Mets (4).



Reds have been hot for about 6 weeks, and at the Indians will be difficult. I don't have a great feeling.



If we could come out of the break 5-5 (1-2 at Cincy, 1-2 at Cleve and then 3-1 vs. the Mets) I'd actually be ok.



As I've said so many times ... DO NOT GET SWEPT. Sweeps are killers.

Trying to speculate on the Pirates' chances of winning upcoming games is very difficult due to the seeming indifference of the manager toward winning. I know that sounds awful and as if I'm just blasting Hurdle but it has to be considered. We can assess the roster in terms of how we think they will do but then we have to also consider that there will be games where Hurdle will bench productive players because he thinks resting them is of the utmost importance even if they have just had or will soon have a day off. Or just because he thinks it's a lesser productive player's turn to play. Or he will pull an effective pitcher because it's someone else's inning to pitch. Or he will put in a Tanner Anderson when the rest of the BP is looking at a 4-day all-star break. I'm not trying to bash Hurdle but I don't know how to assess the team's capabilities without also considering Hurdle's bizarre method of managing them. I suppose that if I were to compare rosters for the next 7 games, I would subtract 1 potential win due to mismanagement.

Five Thirty Eight only projects seven games out. I would be happy with 7 or 8 wins over next ten games.