Wildcard chances...

SteadyFreddy · Post by **SteadyFreddy** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:55 pm

I know most likely the Pirates are probably done as far as having a realistic shot of being the 2nd wildcard. They are just about 5 games out with 37 games remaining and have about 4 or 5 teams to jump over in the standings. I will not officially say they are done until I see what they do this week in these 6 games they have with the Braves and in Milwaukee this weekend since they have had so much success against them this season going 8-2 so far through 10 games. It’s probably going to take a 5-1 week and definitely no worse then 4-2 to keep things realistically alive for another week. I think 87-88 wins is what will ultimately win you the 2nd wildcard so if that is indeed the case the Pirates need to go either 24-13 or or 25-12 in their final 37 games and I just don’t know if that is realistically possible at this point. Splitting the 4 games in San Fran last weekend against a very mediocre Giants team and losing both games against a bad Twins team last week really really hurt the Pirates chances. One more win in the Giants series and even just one win in the Twins series would put the Pirates at 65-60 right now and 3 games out as opposed to 5.5 where they are now.

CarolinaBucco · Post by **CarolinaBucco** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:04 pm

I think they are just about toast. Unfortunately they really should have 3 extra wins at this point:

1. The game in SF that they basically forfeited

2. 1 win in Minnesota

3. Win 1 of the 1-0 games vs. the Cubs

If the Pirates had just done that, which is a pretty low bar, they'd be only 2.5 games out right now.

Instead, at 5.5 out, it will take a minor miracle.

I actually think it may take 90 wins to get the second wild card. That would take a 27-10 finish and that ain't happening.

gileszee · Post by **gileszee** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:23 pm

Maybe they have one more crazy streak left in them in September? I would not be surprised if they make it interesting. That has been their identity in 2018...streaky. I dont believe they will get in the playoffs, but it will be close.

mouse · Post by **mouse** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:04 pm

I would expect one more good streak. They seem to rise to the level of their competition, so playing better teams brings out the best in them. I'm happier to see them with a difficult schedule than with one that (based on records) should be easy. The easy ones never are, but the tough ones can surprise you.

SammyKhalifa · Post by **SammyKhalifa** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:06 pm

4F4D575147220 wrote: I would expect one more good streak. They seem to rise to the level of their competition, so playing better teams brings out the best in them. I'm happier to see them with a difficult schedule than with one that (based on records) should be easy. The easy ones never are, but the tough ones can surprise you.

I think that points to the difference between good and bad ML teams being so slight. Bad teams win 4/10 and good 6/10, not really that large until you get to sample sizes as large as a big league season.

BenM · Post by **BenM** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:06 pm

They are four games behind the Dodgers. They would need to climb over them, the Cards, the Brewers and the Rockies.

I don't see it happening.

SteadyFreddy · Post by **SteadyFreddy** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:36 pm

We’ll see how they do this week. I think they need to go 5-1 which is asking a lot but if you’re realistically going to stay in the race here that is what might need to happen. You can’t tread anymore water every week like the Pirates have been doing the last few weeks when you are approaching 30 games remaining. The Braves have lost 4 in a row so maybe they are catching them at the right time to start this series tonight.

SammyKhalifa · Post by **SammyKhalifa** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:56 pm

1A3D2C282D300F3B2C2D2D30490 wrote: We’ll see how they do this week. I think they need to go 5-1 which is asking a lot but if you’re realistically going to stay in the race here that is what might need to happen. You can’t tread anymore water every week like the Pirates have been doing the last few weeks when you are approaching 30 games remaining. The Braves have lost 4 in a row so maybe they are catching them at the right time to start this series tonight.

Besides that, it's always nice to stab the Braves in the heart . . .

ArnoldRothstein · Post by **ArnoldRothstein** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:40 pm

I expect one more hot streak, but only after the horse has left the barn and has run far, far away.

ChitownBucco · Post by **ChitownBucco** » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:58 pm

5.7% chance to get wildcard according to fangraphs