OnlyBucs

That's what the Pirates need to find to make the playoffs next year. According to an article I checked on Baseball Reference, a team of replacement level players would win 48 games. According to Fangraphs, the Pirates as a team had 32.5 WAR this year. That would give them 81.5 wins, right at the 82 they had in reality. Let's assume they would have won their rainout game with Miami (they went 4-1 against the Marlins, after all,) and they "stole" 1.5 wins. Still, 83-79 is a winning record, but they still finished 8 games out of the WC. Most years, 90 wins is enough to get in the playoffs. The Rays this year won 90 and didn't qualify, but let's just for the sake of ease, say 90 wins gets the Bucs in the playoffs next year. That means they need to find seven wins. Where do they come from?



Right off the bat, the schedule is going to get more difficult. In interleague play, the Pirates went 15-5, including a ridiculous 12-1 against the AL Central bottom feeders of Detroit, Chicago, and Kansas City. We go from six games against the Tigers to four next year, and swap in the AL West for the Central. That means games with Houston and Oakland (2018 playoff teams), Seattle (89 wins), and the Angels (perpetual underachievers who still boast the best player on the planet). The Pirates also cleaned up against the Brewers (12-7) and Reds (14-5).



The good news is there is lots of room for improvement in the schedule, going a combined 5-21 against Arizona, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Washington.



Mercer and Harrison combined for 1.3 WAR. Frazier was 1.9. Newman and Kramer combined for -1.2. Could a full year of Frazier produce 4.0 WAR? That would have made him statistically the best player on the team this year. I think 3.0 is a more realistic figure. If Newman/Kramer/Moroff can at least be replacement level, IOW 0.0 WAR, that's still a net improvement from the middle infield.



Bell, Freese, and Moran combined for 2.8 WAR (1.2 coming from Freese). If Bell and Moran can both become 2.0 WAR players, and let's say Kang can add 1.0, that's 5 from the corner infield. A 2.2 win improvement.



Catching was our strong suit on the year. Cervelli and Diaz combined for 5.3 WAR. That's pretty impressive. Lavarnway and Stallings added 0.1, for a 5.4 WAR total for the position. I can't see much improvement coming there. Probably a net drop-off realistically speaking.



Our projected starting rotation combined for 10.1 WAR on the year. I think a full year of Archer and a full year of a healthy Musgrove can add a net improvement to our starting pitching WAR. I think they could get to 13 as a staff.



Taillon 4

Williams 3

Musgrove 2

Archer 3

Nova 1



So, there's roughly seven wins. And that's without any outside help. It's Frazier/Newman/Kramer/Moroff being an upgrade over Mercer/Harrison, the pitchers each taking a small step forward, and Moran and Bell showing some improvement, with a bit of Kang thrown in as a smattering.



If all that comes to fruition, I think the Pirates can make the playoffs next year. But, that's a lot of "ifs." It would make me feel a lot better if they went out and got some outside help. An outfielder. Another option at a corner infield spot. A veteran MIFer. Another option for the rotation. Some bullpen help to take Santana's and Kuhl's innings.



Here's the point...there's a lot of work to do on this team. But, I see a lot of reason to actually have legit hope for next year. I really thought this was a 90 loss team this year. They weren't. Not on paper, and not in actuality. They just need to take one more step forward, and a year from now, we're in the WC game at worst.

What is it with you IAbucco? Even in bad times you always seem to have the "a glass more than half-full" attitude.



This has been a great day for me knowing that the Cubs and Dodgers are out of the playoffs and hoping that the A's can pull the upset. And your attitude about the Bucs as stat confusing as it is to me, caps of the great day!

I have little use for WAR. We know who the good, average and bad players are without a number being assigned to them, which only confirms our conclusions. And I don't believe we can reliably calculate expected wins based on individual WAR scores.



That being said, they do need to win about 7 more. It's difficult to assume the same number of wins this year (82) is a given and base the number of additional needed wins on that. Harrison, Mercer, Freese and Meadows all contributed to some of those 82 wins and they won't be there next year. And Polanco could be out until June. To improve on 82 wins, others will have to do substantially more than they did this year. Bell needs to be a much better run producer. Ditto for Moran unless he's replaced by an upgrade. Frazier needs to have a full year of effective hitting. Dickerson needs to be retained and become more of a run producer. He needs to be more like the 27 HR guy of a year ago. The catchers need to repeat what has so far been the career year for both of them. Newman or someone else needs to solidify SS. A Kang-like Kang would be an asset. Both the starting pitchers and the BP began poorly but ended up well. Even Vazquez got off to a bad start. They can't have a big chunk of the season next year with the pitching staff struggling. They can't give away numerous runs because of wild pitchers and bad defense. Or sloppy fundamentals including base running. If what we saw from Reyes is legit from a SSS, he should be a huge upgrade over what S-Rod gave them this year.



The good news is that 90 wins can be attained with only Newman (?), Moran and Reyes having to do things they've never done before (more power for Moran and the same play but a larger sample size from Reyes). And Hurdle and NH have to do a better job of maximizing or upgrading what they have. I certainly don't look at this team and conclude that 90 wins is unrealistic. But they'll have to play--and manage--at peak efficiency throughout the season.

As a passing note, the Dodgers are still in the playoffs. They play the Braves tomorrow in the first wildcard game.

604D40515647501013220 wrote: I have little use for WAR. We know who the good, average and bad players are without a number being assigned to them, which only confirms our conclusions. And I don't believe we can reliably calculate expected wins based on individual WAR scores.



That being said, they do need to win about 7 more. It's difficult to assume the same number of wins this year (82) is a given and base the number of additional needed wins on that. Harrison, Mercer, Freese and Meadows all contributed to some of those 82 wins and they won't be there next year. And Polanco could be out until June. To improve on 82 wins, others will have to do substantially more than they did this year. Bell needs to be a much better run producer. Ditto for Moran unless he's replaced by an upgrade. Frazier needs to have a full year of effective hitting. Dickerson needs to be retained and become more of a run producer. He needs to be more like the 27 HR guy of a year ago. The catchers need to repeat what has so far been the career year for both of them. Newman or someone else needs to solidify SS. A Kang-like Kang would be an asset. Both the starting pitchers and the BP began poorly but ended up well. Even Vazquez got off to a bad start. They can't have a big chunk of the season next year with the pitching staff struggling. They can't give away numerous runs because of wild pitchers and bad defense. Or sloppy fundamentals including base running. If what we saw from Reyes is legit from a SSS, he should be a huge upgrade over what S-Rod gave them this year.



The good news is that 90 wins can be attained with only Newman (?), Moran and Reyes having to do things they've never done before (more power for Moran and the same play but a larger sample size from Reyes). And Hurdle and NH have to do a better job of maximizing or upgrading what they have. I certainly don't look at this team and conclude that 90 wins is unrealistic. But they'll have to play--and manage--at peak efficiency throughout the season.   


I mostly agree with this. I don’t think we need Dickerson to hit 27 dingers. I think more than anything we need someone to step up and be a star. 2013-15 happened because Andrew McCutchen put the Pirates on his back and carried them. We need someone to do that again. Marte has the talent to do it, but as is often lamented, he doesn’t always have the brain or heart. He produced 3.7 WAR. I think the potential is in there for him to be a 5 WAR player.



I think Taillon was also 3.7 WAR. I think with another year of growth and maturity, 4 is expected, and 5 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.



But, we’re naive if we think there won’t be injuries or regression. Taillon could have a down year and be a 2 WAR player. Somebody will have a down year. It’s a given.



I realize you may not put stock in WAR, and I don’t think it’s the end all, be all of stats. But, I do think it offers the most comprehensive view of the overall value a player brings to his team.



My point is, whether you’re figuring it on a paper or in terms of actual wins and losses, the Pirates need to win seven more games next yea than they did this year.

3A38222432570 wrote: As a passing note, the Dodgers are still in the playoffs. They play the Braves tomorrow in the first wildcard game.


Thanks for the correction mouse. It's hell to be bald and on Medicare! Too many brain farts with those qualities! :'(

I just assumed it was wishful thinking. I made the same mistake earlier in the week - went to ESPN to verify that they were still there.

I'm too lazy to do this anymore, but it'd be interesting to find the seven losses where the team had the highest likelihood of winning at some point.

192A3637343C0A372C302B2C3D3136580 wrote: I'm too lazy to do this anymore,  but it'd be interesting to find the seven losses where the team had the highest likelihood of winning at some point.


That's easy...I could think of about ten off the top of my head. On the flip side, I can only think of a few where we won when we should have lost. The first game of the year against St. Louis where we scored three in the bottom of the ninth to tie it, the White Sox game where I think Moran homered in the ninth, the fifth game of the five game sweep against the Brewers, and probably opening day against the Tigers. I'm sure there are others, and I suppose it's human nature to remember the ones where you get stung rather than the ones where you do the stinging, but I've got to believe that we got burned a few more times than was our fair share.

577A77666170672724150 wrote: I have little use for WAR. We know who the good, average and bad players are without a number being assigned to them, which only confirms our conclusions. And I don't believe we can reliably calculate expected wins based on individual WAR scores.



That being said, they do need to win about 7 more. It's difficult to assume the same number of wins this year (82) is a given and base the number of additional needed wins on that. Harrison, Mercer, Freese and Meadows all contributed to some of those 82 wins and they won't be there next year. And Polanco could be out until June. To improve on 82 wins, others will have to do substantially more than they did this year. Bell needs to be a much better run producer. Ditto for Moran unless he's replaced by an upgrade. Frazier needs to have a full year of effective hitting. Dickerson needs to be retained and become more of a run producer. He needs to be more like the 27 HR guy of a year ago. The catchers need to repeat what has so far been the career year for both of them. Newman or someone else needs to solidify SS. A Kang-like Kang would be an asset. Both the starting pitchers and the BP began poorly but ended up well. Even Vazquez got off to a bad start. They can't have a big chunk of the season next year with the pitching staff struggling. They can't give away numerous runs because of wild pitchers and bad defense. Or sloppy fundamentals including base running. If what we saw from Reyes is legit from a SSS, he should be a huge upgrade over what S-Rod gave them this year.



The good news is that 90 wins can be attained with only Newman (?), Moran and Reyes having to do things they've never done before (more power for Moran and the same play but a larger sample size from Reyes). And Hurdle and NH have to do a better job of maximizing or upgrading what they have. I certainly don't look at this team and conclude that 90 wins is unrealistic. But they'll have to play--and manage--at peak efficiency throughout the season.   


Like you, I have little use for WAR. You know who generally si good and who sucks; who helps and who doesn't. I'm somewhat bullish on our starting rotation next year. The major question I have is Williams' performance sustainable? I think we can get improvement from Archer. Not throwing Feliz and Lithuanian guy and Brault makes us better. But, we need a bat or two. I'm not talking about this year's Jeremy Burnitz type who is on his last legs. If the brass is worried about losing Stallings (I have no idea why they are worried because he is very replaceable and is a dime a dozen), Marwin Gonzales would be a good add with this versatility deal Pittsburgh has. Newman/Kramer have to figure out a way to hit. We need a 4th OF, because I have zero faith in Luplow. Fix those parts and we have a punchers chance. Of course, the Cubs will blow more money now they their season is a failure.