OnlyBucs

Here's what worries me about this team.



Everyone is talking about Pirates starting pitching and how good or great it's going to be.



But is it really that good ... or is it just good compared to every other aspect of the Pirates, which are all pretty bad (offense, power, defense, etc...)



Let's look at from a wider lense, compared to the rest of baseball, and not as viewed internally by the Pirates:



Taillon -- I would classify him as a proven No. 2 with "potential" to become a No.1. He's a legit MLB starter.



Archer -- I would also classify him as a proven No. 2 caliber who has reached a No. 1 and could maybe get back to that level. But let's just call him a No. 2. (Some would argue a No. 3).



Williams -- He was had an untouchable second half last year. Incredible. Pitched like a No. 1 for 2+ months. But is that the real Williams? Is it really sustainable? I doubt it. He has more to prove. I'll call him a No. 3 caliber starter with No. 2 potential.



Musgrove -- So many questions here. He has talent. He has potential. But he's never really proven anything for an extended period. He is an unknown. I think he classifies as a No. 4 at this point.



5th Starter -- This spot is a big mess, thanks to the Pirates -- for trading Nova for nothing just to save a few dollars, and for NOT going out and signing someone like Gio Gonzalez or Wade Miley, who are both available and easily affordable. To me it's just inexcusable they are going this route and entering spring training without any version of a legit No. 5 starter.



So there you have it ...



Two No. 2 caliber guys

One No. 3 guy

One No. 4 type guy.



AND THAT'S IT. Not great, and no depth, and you know there will be injuries, etc.



So is our rotation really that good ... compared to other contending teams that are TRYING to win? I don't think so, and that scares me.



If the Pirates are going to have any chance to compete, the rotation had better be not only be good but great ... because we know we're not going to win games by scoring tons of runs and hitting HRs. And we're not going to win with defense.



And I just don't see this rotation winning many 2-1 and 3-2 games.



As usual ... hope I'm wrong.

I've seen a few non-Pirates related sources say they think the Bucs have the best overall rotation in the division. I'm not so sure about that, but I think it's pretty good. I still want another good starter though--what we did with the fifth spot still really annoys me.

What bothers me most is that we have little depth even if our "Big 4" get most of their starts. Nova was arguably a #4 starter with a distinct advantage as a #5. Lyles is a prayer. Kingham is my favorite horse in the #5 competition. I believe that Brault will begin the year at AAA because he has an option. Hope that he and Holmes can get us through any early season injuries before Keller is pronounced ready.



As has been posted by so many, our failure to get a reasonably priced LHSP is inexcusable. Liriano vs. Lyles should produce a decent second lefty for our bullpen but they are extreme longshots to start.

My concern with Pirates pitching over the last few years at least is that "pitching" is more than just the guy throwing the ball. A ball that rolls by an infielder with no mobility counts against the pitcher. It's not only a hit but can require half a dozen more pitches to get out of the inning. A double play--which you can't assume--not made . . .



If NH wants to focus on pitching, I think it would be helpful to shore up the defense. Otherwise, I've seen the same third party comments suggesting the Pirates pitching is the best in the division.

I have the same questions because it's too soon in their careers to see sustained success, if that's going to happen. But I don't think it's going out on a limb to be optimistic. Taillon has always been expected to become a star pitcher. It took longer because of all the health issues but last year he showed what we've been waiting for. He was one of the NL's top pitchers. The surprise was Williams, who lacks great "stuff" but was also one of the NL's best last year. As Pirate fans always waiting for the other shoe to drop whenever we see something positive, I think we have doubts as to whether Williams can repeat that success. But if he had pitched that way for any other team that already had a Taillon of their own, we would be saying how tough it will be to face those 2 pitchers in this upcoming season. So I'm going to believe in Williams until there is reason not to. Archer has a track record. He was very good 2013-2015 but has struggled the last 3 years. He has shown he has the ability but needs to find a way to get to back to how he pitched several years ago. He's still only 30 and might only need to be a #3 here. So it's not too much of a stretch to expect the top 3 to be pretty effective. Musgrove pitched very well into mid-August and a month later he was shut down with an injury. It's fair to expect that a healthy Musgrove can be a legitimately effective starter. So until/unless they prove otherwise, I'm expecting #1-4 to be one the most solid rotations in the NL. Of course, TBMTIB didn't even make an effort to have a legit #5 so that shapes up as a disaster. But #1-4 look strong.

I think it's a close race between the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals for best rotation in the division, with no clear favorite. If Mikolas repeats and Martinez returns, the Cards would clearly be the best, but those are question marks. I think that the advantage the Pirates have is that they have a deeper bullpen than the other NL Central teams. And they likely have the best closer, setup guy combo in the division. Your starters' effectiveness is boosted by playing 7 inning games.

The Bucs starting rotation has the potential to be best in Division but it certainly isn't a lock.



I am optimistic about Taillon, Williams and Archer.



Musgrove could come through too, hoping he has an injury free season.



I have no confidence in whoever the fifth starter will be (expect that spot to be worse than what Nova did last year).



I can see Williams regressing some but still being solid. Taillon and Archer improving on what they did last year.



Still there isn't much depth. Taillon Williams and Archer are going to need to make 95 starts.

We'd be better with Nova. He was frustrating but we torpedoed out own depth. I get the whole production/$ thing and don't even blame them as much as most here, but then go get another guy then.

31030F0F1B290A030E0B0403620 wrote: We'd be better with Nova.  He was frustrating but we torpedoed out own depth.  I get the whole production/$ thing and don't even blame them as much as most here, but then go get another guy then.


Exactly! I didn't mind losing Nova. He was a weak spot in the rotation and overpaid for how little he produced. Seemed like it wouldn't be hard to replace him with a cheaper version of the same lack of production or hopefully someone better. And with their minuscule payroll there was certainly room to get someone. Instead, the decision was to save as much money as possible by assembling candidates consisting of a castoff (Davis), reclamation projects (Lyles, Liriano) and the struggling Brault and Kingham.

I see 5th. starter with many options in Kingham, Brault, Lyles, and now Rookie Davis and if they don't work out you have them in combination with a "starter" like Liriano, etc.



The other point is Kingham and Brault are young home grown under control prospects that deserve a shot as well as Holmes and the pick ups like Lyles and Davis. I'm ok with this and not a fan of Gio.