OnlyBucs

in MLB Trade Rumors chat today the question was asked, Besides MadBaum what starters can we expect to get traded?



I'm wondering if we should throw Chris Archer into the possible mix. Otherwise, Stroman, Mike Minor, Matt Boyd, Lynn, and a slew of others.





I think this is very unlikely to happen unless fans turn on Archer and he doesn't want to be on the team.



He seems to have a good attitude, really hope he can become a good starter for the Bucs.

I can't see them throwing in the towel on him already, given how well the pieces we traded for him are doing. I know sunk cost isn't an objective reason to not do a trade, but it might apply here.

0E0A0235233306212E400 wrote: I can't see them throwing in the towel on him already, given how well the pieces we traded for him are doing. I know sunk cost isn't an objective reason to not do a trade, but it might apply here.


I think they would need to receive an offer they couldn't refuse.

A couple things to consider about Archer:



He hasn't had an outstanding season since 2015. So the Archer we have seen as a Pirate is fairly consistent with how he has pitched the past few years.



In the AL facing slugging DHs instead of pitchers, ERAs are generally higher than in the NL. Prior to 2018, his worst ERA for TB was 4.07. At the time of the trade, he had an ERA of 4.31 for TB, his career worst ERA. For the Pirates the reminder of 2018, he had a 4.30 ERA. That's even worse considering he wasn't facing DHs anymore.



This year so far he has compiled a new career worst ERA (4.33), tied his career worst BB/9 (4.0), has a career worst FIP, a career worst HR/9 (1.7), and his SO/9 (9.7) ranks 6th out of 8 MLB seasons.



So what we are seeing so far is a bad start for him. Not representative of his ability and probably likely to improve. On the other hand, we should temper our expectations because he has not been dominant since 2015 and when acquired last July 31, he was having arguably his worst season for TB and it has carried over. He's not the pitcher he was in his best seasons (2013-2015) and probably never will be again. But he also should get better than what we've seen so far this season.

6B464B5A5D4C5B1B18290 wrote: A couple things to consider about Archer:



He hasn't had an outstanding season since 2015. So the Archer we have seen as a Pirate is fairly consistent with how he has pitched the past few years.



In the AL facing slugging DHs instead of pitchers, ERAs are generally higher than in the NL. Prior to 2018, his worst ERA for TB was 4.07. At the time of the trade, he had an ERA of 4.31 for TB, his career worst ERA. For the Pirates the reminder of 2018, he had a 4.30 ERA. That's even worse considering he wasn't facing DHs anymore.



This year so far he has compiled a new career worst ERA (4.33), tied his career worst BB/9 (4.0), has a career worst FIP, a career worst HR/9 (1.7), and his SO/9 (9.7) ranks 6th out of 8 MLB seasons.



So what we are seeing so far is a bad start for him. Not representative of his ability and probably likely to improve. On the other hand, we should temper our expectations because he has not been dominant since 2015 and when acquired last July 31, he was having arguably his worst season for TB and it has carried over. He's not the pitcher he was in his best seasons (2013-2015) and probably never will be again. But he also should get better than what we've seen so far this season. 


Yep , that was my opinion last year when we gave up 3 of our best prospects for him. I guy that had seen his best years .



As I said then , a stupid trade that was done to dupe the fan base into thinking they were going all in to win. I guess Nutting liked this better than moving the payroll to 100 mill . Thing is it's going to blow up in their faces as it will just sour the base even more. Too bad they had such a bad take on Meadows and Glasnow. Bad will probably bite them in them in the as too.

I noted it on a prior message, but I think the Bucs should permit Archer to throw 115 to 118 pitches. Since he was acquired last year his pitch count is something that I have watched. Due to strikeouts, and a few full counts during his outing he is close to 100 pitches around the fifth or sixth inning. The new policy in baseball for a starting pitcher to throw about 100 pitches does not work for Archer. Let him throw some additional pitches to see whether he can get through the 7th inning, and then turn the game over to the bullpen.

353938636A636B66617E64530 wrote: I noted it on a prior message, but I think the Bucs should permit Archer to throw 115 to 118 pitches. Since he was acquired last year his pitch count is something that I have watched. Due to strikeouts, and a few full counts during his outing he is close to 100 pitches around the fifth or sixth inning. The new policy in baseball for a starting pitcher to throw about 100 pitches does not work for Archer. Let him throw some additional pitches to see whether he can get through  the 7th inning, and then turn the game over to the bullpen.
I agree. There has never been evidence that 100 pitches is the ideal number for health reasons. It's merely a nice round number. Usually. it's only enough for 5 or 6 innings, which taxes the BP. 120 is also a nice round number, and it would enable an effective pitcher to remain in the game another inning or 2. 

505C5D060F060E03041B01360 wrote: I noted it on a prior message, but I think the Bucs should permit Archer to throw 115 to 118 pitches. Since he was acquired last year his pitch count is something that I have watched. Due to strikeouts, and a few full counts during his outing he is close to 100 pitches around the fifth or sixth inning. The new policy in baseball for a starting pitcher to throw about 100 pitches does not work for Archer. Let him throw some additional pitches to see whether he can get through  the 7th inning, and then turn the game over to the bullpen.


this makes sense to me. Another reason I thought he might do better in NL is that he wouldn't be facing the Yankees and Red Sox as often.

4B666B7A7D6C7B3B38090 wrote: I noted it on a prior message, but I think the Bucs should permit Archer to throw 115 to 118 pitches. Since he was acquired last year his pitch count is something that I have watched. Due to strikeouts, and a few full counts during his outing he is close to 100 pitches around the fifth or sixth inning. The new policy in baseball for a starting pitcher to throw about 100 pitches does not work for Archer. Let him throw some additional pitches to see whether he can get through  the 7th inning, and then turn the game over to the bullpen.
I agree. There has never been evidence that 100 pitches is the ideal number for health reasons. It's merely a nice round number. Usually. it's only enough for 5 or 6 innings, which taxes the BP. 120 is also a nice round number, and it would enable an effective pitcher to remain in the game another inning or 2. 




I would think that there is good evidence that pitchers are less effective throwing pitch number 115 the 4th time through the order. Hence the BP usage is different than it was 10-20 years ago. I have no direct evidence you guys are wrong but I believe you are . His ERA would IMO sell even higher if he was just left out there until he finished 7 innings . Bottom line is he's just not that good ?

5C5B4A594A1B162F0 wrote: I noted it on a prior message, but I think the Bucs should permit Archer to throw 115 to 118 pitches. Since he was acquired last year his pitch count is something that I have watched. Due to strikeouts, and a few full counts during his outing he is close to 100 pitches around the fifth or sixth inning. The new policy in baseball for a starting pitcher to throw about 100 pitches does not work for Archer. Let him throw some additional pitches to see whether he can get through  the 7th inning, and then turn the game over to the bullpen.
I agree. There has never been evidence that 100 pitches is the ideal number for health reasons. It's merely a nice round number. Usually. it's only enough for 5 or 6 innings, which taxes the BP. 120 is also a nice round number, and it would enable an effective pitcher to remain in the game another inning or 2. 




I would think that there is good evidence that pitchers are less effective throwing pitch number 115 the 4th time through the order. Hence the BP usage is different than it was 10-20 years ago. I have no direct evidence you guys are wrong but I believe you are . His ERA would IMO sell even higher if he was just left out there until he finished 7 innings . Bottom line is he's just not that good ?
In most cases he has not even come close to seeing the batting order flip for a fourth time. He is probably lucky to see the entire 9 guys three times through the order. There have been several games he is at twenty pitches in the first inning. He ends up with full counts, batters foul off several pitches and his pitch count becomes elevated.