Buy-Low Trade Candidate: Chris Archer

[gileszee]

Interesting read...relates to Archer and how Uncle Ray and his 2 seam/sinker philosophy no longer is as successful in today's game.



https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/6/17 ... philosophy



I think one or more of you have mentioned that it might be time to move on from Ray.  I am starting to think this as well.

[Bobster21]

Very interesting. Including the linked Fangraphs article on Archer. It's ironic that article suggests Archer needs to get away from Searage and go to the Astros because they have the success with reclamation projects that Searage no longer has. And if the stats demonstrate Archer's failure with the 2-seamer, why is he encouraged by Searage to use it more?

[gileszee]

It makes no sense, outside of the fact that the Pirates brass are just plain stubborn. Over the last couple of years NH and his crew boasted how analytical they are, well if they are looking at the wrong analytics that is problematic.



It is well documented how Morton and Cole have succeeded outside of the Burgh. And now this year Glasnow, before his injury, was for intents and purposes lights out. I do want to see more from Glasnow before passing total judgment on the Pirates.



Nonetheless, could you imagine if they traded Archer to the Astros and he turned it around like the others before him?



I mean, how embarrassing would the FO and ownership be if that happened?



I guess it would just reinforce, what a lot of us already know, and that is the leadership of the Pirates are incapable to take responsibility of their miscues. And more importantly, willing to make changes for the betterment of the organization.

[Bobster21]

It always seems to me that NH thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He knows his hands are tied by Nutting's refusal to spend anything even remotely approaching an average payroll so he wants to compensate by being a shrewd drafter, developer, trader and strategist. He was at the forefront of shifting and analytics. I'm sure he's behind Hurdle's NBA player rest program. But what he perceives as thinking outside the box often looks like foolishness. He's not an exceptional drafter and the organization isn't doing a particularly good job of developing the prospects they've got. He seems to underrate his own players and overrate players he trades for. Everyone shifts now so there's no advantage anymore. Key players get rested in key games to follow the NBA formula which sometimes results in unnecessarily weak lineups even though the demands of the NBA are completely different from MLB. Last year he killed momentum by inexplicably promoting Holmes to start a game after a 3 game win streak that led to losing 6 of 7 when Holmes failed miserably. And the Pirates embrace a pitching philosophy that now appears to be counterproductive, as evidenced by the success his failing pitchers find when they go elsewhere and learn a different philosophy. The Pirates seem to value just about everything other than actual performance. They're always looking at the analytical data rather than the on-field results. Maybe that's why their pitchers always seem to feel very positive about their worst outings (comments from Kingham and Archer come to mind).



NH does need to give the Pirates every possible advantage since they won't have the talent other teams are willing to pay for. There's nothing wrong with analytics. But I think they put way too much emphasis on it and too little emphasis on results. If something isn't working, it needs to be changed. It shouldn't be continued just because it looks good on a spreadsheet.

[JollyRoger]

587578696E7F68282B1A0 wrote: It always seems to me that NH thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. He knows his hands are tied by Nutting's refusal to spend anything even remotely approaching an average payroll so he wants to compensate by being a shrewd drafter, developer, trader and strategist. He was at the forefront of shifting and analytics. I'm sure he's behind Hurdle's NBA player rest program. But what he perceives as thinking outside the box often looks like foolishness. He's not an exceptional drafter and the organization isn't doing a particularly good job of developing the prospects they've got. He seems to underrate his own players and overrate players he trades for. Everyone shifts now so there's no advantage anymore. Key players get rested in key games to follow the NBA formula which sometimes results in unnecessarily weak lineups even though the demands of the NBA are completely different from MLB. Last year he killed momentum by inexplicably promoting Holmes to start a game after a 3 game win streak that led to losing 6 of 7 when Holmes failed miserably. And the Pirates embrace a pitching philosophy that now appears to be counterproductive, as evidenced by the success his failing pitchers find when they go elsewhere and learn a different philosophy. The Pirates seem to value just about everything other than actual performance. They're always looking at the analytical data rather than the on-field results. Maybe that's why their pitchers always seem to feel very positive about their worst outings (comments from Kingham and Archer come to mind).



NH does need to give the Pirates every possible advantage since they won't have the talent other teams are willing to pay for. There's nothing wrong with analytics. But I think they put way too much emphasis on it and too little emphasis on results. If something isn't working, it needs to be changed. It shouldn't be continued just because it looks good on a spreadsheet.


Excellent synopsis Bobster!

[SammyKhalifa]

The Searage interview postgame the other day was rather interesting.  Part of it was about how they wanted him to throw more of a certain pitch (can't remember what) and he wouldn't.  Which seems odd to me, why does he call his own pitches?  But if true, it seem more on the pitcher than the coach in this case.



EDIT--I found a link:

https://937thefan.radio.com/articles/du ... arage-odds



The article is fine, but I suggest listening to the audio too if you get a chance.

[DemDog]

Listening to The Fan this afternoon and they had Jason Mackey the new PG Pirates writer. He did not confirm or deny the fact that Archer and Uncle Ray do not see eye to eye. He seemed to think that the 2-seamer was not a good pitch among Archer's repertoire and Archer should use his other pitches more and forgo the 2-seamer. That is what the article linked about is saying too.

[MaineBucs]

So ---- If Searage (who swears he is not) is telling him to throw more two-seamers, then the pitching coach is using an out-moded approach to pitching in today's world.



But, if Archer is choosing to throw the 2 seamer against Ray's advice, and the result is a pitch that is getting pounded, then the Pirates have an even greater problem because Archer is following his own drummer instead of doing what may position him to win more games.



Regardless, most of Archer's performances this year have been really substandard. They need to fix the problem so Archer and the time have more of a likelihood of seeing some success.

[Ecbucs]

456961666D4A7D6B7B080 wrote: So ---- If Searage (who swears he is not) is telling him to throw more two-seamers, then the pitching coach is using an out-moded approach to pitching in today's world.



But, if Archer is choosing to throw the 2 seamer against Ray's advice, and the result is a pitch that is getting pounded, then the Pirates have an even greater problem because Archer is following his own drummer instead of doing what may position him to win more games.   



Regardless, most of Archer's performances this year have been really substandard.  They need to fix the problem so Archer and the time have more of a likelihood of seeing some success.


I don't understand the Archer situation. If his 2 seamer is getting pounded why does he want to keep throwing it? Does he think it only gets hit hard when he misses his spot? Does the evidence really show that his 2 seamer gets pounded?

[SammyKhalifa]

6F49485F49592A0 wrote: So ---- If Searage (who swears he is not) is telling him to throw more two-seamers, then the pitching coach is using an out-moded approach to pitching in today's world.



But, if Archer is choosing to throw the 2 seamer against Ray's advice, and the result is a pitch that is getting pounded, then the Pirates have an even greater problem because Archer is following his own drummer instead of doing what may position him to win more games.   



Regardless, most of Archer's performances this year have been really substandard.  They need to fix the problem so Archer and the time have more of a likelihood of seeing some success.


I don't understand the Archer situation.  If his 2 seamer is getting pounded why does he want to keep throwing it?  Does he think it only gets hit hard when he misses his spot?  Does the evidence really show that his 2 seamer gets pounded?


Yeah, the whole thing sounds weird.