Consistently inconsistent

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Bobster21

Consistently inconsistent

Post by Bobster21 »

Keller has made 9 starts:



1. 3.0 IP; 3 ER

2. 5.0 IP; 1 ER

3. 3.1 IP; 7 ER

4. 5.0 IP; 2 ER

5. 2.1 IP; 4 ER

6. 5.2 IP; 0 ER

7. 3.1 IP; 7 ER

8. 5.0 IP; 2 ER

9. 5.0 IP; 5 ER



At least we know that his next start will be 5 innings with 2 or less ERs.



The Pirates announcers critique his every pitch. They fall all over themselves praising the good pitches and suggest he can stop throwing the bad ones if he just does this or that. They seem locked into the "Keller as future ace" narrative. I just don't see it.



Every MLB pitcher can throw the occasional good pitch. That's how they got there. What separates pitchers is the ability or lack thereof to to it consistently while avoiding a slew of bad pitches. Too often, Keller's good pitches are rare and he looks like a BP pitcher. You don't have games as bad as he has if your arsenal consists of "good stuff." And if you have "good stuff" your better games aren't limited to 5 innings. And in 2 of those games he gave up 2 runs in 5 innings which equates to an ERA of 3.60. So 2 runs in 5 innings is okay but nothing to brag about. I just don't see any reason to believe Keller will become significantly better.
SyrBucco
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:00 pm

Consistently inconsistent

Post by SyrBucco »

Sad but true, Bobster. I have to rank Mitch Keller as the #1 disappointment on the Pirates.
SCBucco
Posts: 1791
Joined: Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:47 am

Consistently inconsistent

Post by SCBucco »

Three things ...



1. We do not have what we call an innings eater. Anderson was brought in to serve in that role, but my fear is from here on out, he will be at best a five innings guy. He is getting tagged now. They should be trying to unload him now for whatever.



2. We do not have a starter that will give the Pirates a chance to win. Now that Brubaker and Anderson have come back to earth with their last two starts each ...



3. We should be trying to unload RichRod now. The LAD lost another arm to the bullpen and there are some good matches for him to be dealt. He won't have many opportunities for the Bucs from here on out with this pitching.
GermanTownship

Consistently inconsistent

Post by GermanTownship »

Totally agree ,SC. Would demand a top five prospect from any team before I would deal him.
mouse
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:46 pm

Consistently inconsistent

Post by mouse »

I don't see the Dodgers as a trade partner. They are so loaded that Rodriquez would be a nice extra but isn't a piece they need to make it over the top. We need a team with a legitimate shot at the playoffs but a weak bullpen - one which perhaps is a touch desperate.
Bobster21

Consistently inconsistent

Post by Bobster21 »

I don't know what would constitute an innings eater in this day and age of 100 pitch counts, not facing a lineup a 3rd time, 9 man BPs and specialists from the 7th inning on. Currently there are 63 NL pitchers with at least 7 starts and only 17 of them are averaging more than 5 innings. And 14 of those 63 are averaging less 5 innings.



The innings eater might be coming a lost art. And that term was never used for good pitchers. It referred to serviceable pitchers who at least often pitched deeper into games even if not particularly well. These days managers don't seem to want pitchers going more than 6 innings and usually settle for less than that.
2drfischer@gmail.c

Consistently inconsistent

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

406A61516670707C130 wrote: Sad but true, Bobster. I have to rank Mitch Keller as the #1 disappointment on the Pirates.


You're right, Keller has been disappointing. But I wonder if it's because he was overhyped by the previous Front Office and we've been expecting more? Maybe he was never more than a bottom-half-of-the-rotation pitcher, talentwise, and he's just pitching to that talent.



I don't think were going to know, though, until he's pitched every five days for the rest of the season. If he shows no signs of improving after 25-30 starts then we have a better idea of what he's going to be. There's nothing to lose because this season is a lost one, anyway.



I do wonder, though, if Keller had been drafted by the Dodgers what kind of pitcher he'd be today.
Bobster21

Consistently inconsistent

Post by Bobster21 »

1C4A5C48475D4D464B5C6E49434F4742004D2E0 wrote: Sad but true, Bobster. I have to rank Mitch Keller as the #1 disappointment on the Pirates.


You're right, Keller has been disappointing.  But I wonder if it's because he was overhyped by the previous Front Office and we've been expecting more?  Maybe he was never more than a bottom-half-of-the-rotation pitcher, talentwise, and he's just pitching to that talent. 



I don't think were going to know, though, until he's pitched every five days for the rest of the season.  If he shows no signs of improving after 25-30 starts then we have a better idea of what he's going to be.  There's nothing to lose because this season is a lost one, anyway.



I do wonder, though, if Keller had been drafted by the Dodgers what kind of pitcher he'd be today.


I think he was overhyped by a regime that was reeling from the Kingham and Glasnow disasters and needed to sell the fan base on the idea that they still had another top pitching prospect on the way. Keller's AAA stats are troublesome. A mixture of very good and very bad starts with an unimpressive ERA of 3.98 and almost as many hits (153) as innings (156). He couldn't dominate AAA batters and it's only worse at the MLB level.
2drfischer@gmail.c

Consistently inconsistent

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

557875646372652526170 wrote: Sad but true, Bobster. I have to rank Mitch Keller as the #1 disappointment on the Pirates.


You're right, Keller has been disappointing.  But I wonder if it's because he was overhyped by the previous Front Office and we've been expecting more?  Maybe he was never more than a bottom-half-of-the-rotation pitcher, talentwise, and he's just pitching to that talent. 



I don't think were going to know, though, until he's pitched every five days for the rest of the season.  If he shows no signs of improving after 25-30 starts then we have a better idea of what he's going to be.  There's nothing to lose because this season is a lost one, anyway.



I do wonder, though, if Keller had been drafted by the Dodgers what kind of pitcher he'd be today.


[highlight]I think he was overhyped by a regime that was reeling from the Kingham and Glasnow disasters and needed to sell the fan base on the idea that they still had another top pitching prospect on the way.[/highlight] Keller's AAA stats are troublesome. A mixture of very good and very bad starts with an unimpressive ERA of 3.98 and almost as many hits (153) as innings (156). He couldn't dominate AAA batters and it's only worse at the MLB level.


It looks more and more to be the case with each passing start. The statistics you pointed out seem to bear it out. I'm still willing to give him the remainder of the season to see if he can improve. There's nothing to lose and everything to gain. He might end up being a useable 4th or 5th starter over the next few years.
mouse
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:46 pm

Consistently inconsistent

Post by mouse »

I thought most of the rating services showed him as a top prospect. They wouldn't be influenced by the old regime. It could be everyone was fooled; it could be it takes time for a pitcher to develop, even at the ML level. Another reason to look to a position player in the draft.
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