OnlyBucs

1. Have you seen the lefty/righty splits for Cole Tucker last year? .715 OPS vs. RHP, .429 vs. lefties. The right handed Michael Chavis has a .547 OPS vs.  RHP but .804 vs. lefties. Due to the lockout, I’m finding it difficult to check if these are statistical outliers. But on the surface, these numbers cry out for a 2022 platoon at 2B. Tucker played some awesome D at 2B last year.



I know the grand scheme had him at SS and Newman at 2B, but my eyes ain’t lying: it’s better the other way around.



2. Without Adam Frazier, I wondered if the Bucs had anyone who could be a decent leadoff hitter. I’m going with Ben Gamel vs. RHP. He had a solid .777 OPS vs. RHP last year, and an outstanding .370 OBP. I haven’t found him a solid platoon mate, and he needs one with a .623 OPS and .283 OBP vs. lefties. Ex-Yankee Greg Allen is a possibility. He had awesome stats vs. lefties (.500 AVG, .667 OBP, 1.367 OPS) but it’s a small sample size.



3. Trying to figure out what our 2022 starting rotation might be? I did a statistical deep dive today on our 2021 staff and good Lord was it ugly. Let’s consider one stat across several 2021 pitchers: OPS against, first time through the order. Relief pitchers are expected to be good at this, and our 2021 top 3 were good:

David Bednar  .577

Rich Rodriguez  .619 (please re-sign him)

Chris Stratton  .680



However, our starting pitchers were almost uniformly bad at, well, starting:



JT Brubaker  .791 (age 28) 2nd time thru:  .829

Mitch Keller  .812 (age 26)  2nd time thru:  .908

Bryse Wilson  .858  (age 24)  2nd time thru:  .742

Wil Crowe  .876  (age 27)  2nd time thru:  .806



So, is there a failed starter there who might make a decent reliever? Brubaker gets a “maybe”, but the others don’t look like good candidates. Bryse Wilson is the youngest and actually improves as the game progresses.



4. There were two Pirate starters with small sample sizes as starters that did very well at the “OPS against, first time through the order” stat:

Dillon Peters  .424 (age 29)  2nd time thru:  .934

Max Kranick  .494 (age 24)  2nd time thru:  1.190



Compare Peters, a lefty, with our principal 2021 bullpen lefties:

Sam Howard  .732  (age 29)

Anthony Banda  .813  (age 28)



Conclusions: Dillon Peters should be moved to the bullpen. It’s probably too soon to give up on Max Kranick as a starter, but compare him to this guy:

Duane Underwood  .795  (age 27)

If Underwood, who has no options, stumbles out of the gate, replace him with Kranick and don’t look back.



5. Are there any other stats that jumped out at me? Consider ERA at PNC Park:

JT Brubaker  3.79

Wil Crowe  4.57

Bryse Wilson  5.59

Mitch Keller  7.91



Conclusions: Who in this sorry lot will join newcomers Zach Thompson and Jose Quintana in the rotation? By my analysis, the best cases can be made for JT Brubaker and Bryse Wilson. And this means that the last spot may go to Miguel Yajure (age 23). Wil Crowe is what we thought he was: a low cost long reliever/spot starter.



Finally, because this post is already too long, what do we do with Mitch Keller? If ever a case could be made for a change of scenery trade, Mitch Keller’s your guy. He’s been incredibly erratic, and I apologize that my stats don’t show it. But it seems that there is potential there. Maybe he just needs to wear a different uniform. I say forget about Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz and trade Keller while he still has some value. If no deal is there, start 2022 with him in the rotation and cut him loose if he fails (again).



If this post generates some discussion, I’ve got 4 more takes to share with my Bucco-loving buds here.

The Pirates definitely have a pitching problem.



I would just roll with Keller to start the year and let Contreras and Yajure start in AAA. Keller is almost 26, so his value is extremely low. He does have an option left, so I guess they could let him start out in AAA as well.



Brubaker really struggled as the season went on, so hopefully the issue was stamina, and not talent. Long balls was his main problem. Of the options, he is probably the most likely to settle into a mid rotation spot. The rest are more spot starters/bullpen types to me. Maybe one can end up as a solid back of the rotation option.



The Pirates have 8 middle infielders, so one of those will probably end up playing in the OF, which is not great. Or DH, which is even less great. On the bright side, plenty of ABs to figure out which one will work. Chavis can play some at 1B too against lefties.



Hoy Park walked at a good rate, so maybe he can be an option at leadoff.

The really depressing thing about the starting rotation is that they didn't disappoint. Looking at them before the season began, this was basically what was expected.



Kranick is a AAA pitcher with no business in an MLB rotation. Keller has struggled against all competition since he left Altoona. He has no out pitch and is at best a #5 starter. Brubaker is probably a #4 at best as is Crowe. Is Peters going to finally establish himself as a legit MLB pitcher at age 29? Everyone in the Pirates rotation is someone you don't want anywhere but the bottom of the rotation. Hopefully, the rotation will look very different by the 2nd half of 2022. 

Thanks Bellevue and Bobster for your comments! I guess that most of the Board has gone into hibernation, waiting for the lockout to end before they return.



How about those Penguins!

735952625543434F200 wrote: Thanks Bellevue and Bobster for your comments! [highlight]I guess that most of the Board has gone into hibernation[/highlight], waiting for the lockout to end before they return.



How about those Penguins!


Speaking for myself, I'm just frustrated. Without anything to talk about, it forces us to turn to other things. If it goes on too long, fans will lose interest or simply turn away in anger. I don't want to do either but these guys aren't helping.



One good thing is that mlb.com has had some interesting articles about past players and historical events. It's been fun and informative reading many of them.

IMO, the only significant thing that the strike's affected on the board is The Off-Season Thread, and even that was affected more by internal matters than the strike.



It's the off-season. We're not all that active in any off-season, at least when it comes to "name" players. I've seen ardent fans return near Opening Day.



It's NFL playoff time. It's NBA time. It's NHL time, and in a few weeks, NCAAT time.



It's the same here in the winter as it was on two or three other boards I've participated on.

Regarding the infield (assuming there is a season): I believe they would like to see Chavis win the 2B job and get a season's worth of ABs. He has shown some power in the minors and hit 18 HRs in 347 ABs for Boston in 2019. And this team desperately needs power. If he can supply it, he could move to the OF (where he already has some experience) in a year or 2 when Nick Gonzalez is ready to take over 2B.



Newman's job security is perilous. Two of their best prospects are SSs with Cruz and Peguero. And with each passing year Newman's .308 BA in 2019 looks more like a fluke. He seems like a good field/no hit SS who will likely be traded and replaced by Cruz before the season is over.



As for Tucker, I think the fans like him more than the Pirates front office does. He's likeable and energetic and came onto our radar as a #1 draft pick earmarked to be the SS of the future. That's a lot to like. But the reality is that he's a switch hitter who doesn't hit well from either side of the plate. And despite all the experimenting they've done with young players the past few years, Tucker has never been given a chance to win the starting SS or 2B job despite excellent fielding. So it seems the organization has made up its mind about him. He will likely make the team as a light hitting utility INF/OF type. But such players are easily replaceable, and I doubt he has more than 1 more year in then organization, if that.

7B2D3B2F203A2A212C3B092E24282025672A490 wrote: Thanks Bellevue and Bobster for your comments! [highlight]I guess that most of the Board has gone into hibernation[/highlight], waiting for the lockout to end before they return.



How about those Penguins!


Speaking for myself, I'm just frustrated.  Without anything to talk about, it forces us to turn to other things. If it goes on too long, fans will lose interest or simply turn away in anger.  I don't want to do either but these guys aren't helping.



One good thing is that mlb.com has had some interesting articles about past players and historical events.  It's been fun and informative reading many of them.
I do expect some movement very soon. Too much money at stake on both sides

4977727A6971717A5A7F687B2C1E0 wrote: Thanks Bellevue and Bobster for your comments! [highlight]I guess that most of the Board has gone into hibernation[/highlight], waiting for the lockout to end before they return.



How about those Penguins!


Speaking for myself, I'm just frustrated.  Without anything to talk about, it forces us to turn to other things. If it goes on too long, fans will lose interest or simply turn away in anger.  I don't want to do either but these guys aren't helping.



One good thing is that mlb.com has had some interesting articles about past players and historical events.  It's been fun and informative reading many of them.
I do expect some movement very soon. Too much money at stake on both sides


The '94 strike that spilled into the next season is the most recent work stoppage in baseball. Neither party seemed concerned with the money that was being lost as the playoffs and World Series, their big money-makers, were cancelled. I know a lot of money stands to be lost again but, when egos get in the way, I don't trust these guys to do the prudent thing.

2375637778627279746351767C70787D3F72110 wrote: Thanks Bellevue and Bobster for your comments! [highlight]I guess that most of the Board has gone into hibernation[/highlight], waiting for the lockout to end before they return.



How about those Penguins!


Speaking for myself, I'm just frustrated.  Without anything to talk about, it forces us to turn to other things. If it goes on too long, fans will lose interest or simply turn away in anger.  I don't want to do either but these guys aren't helping.



One good thing is that mlb.com has had some interesting articles about past players and historical events.  It's been fun and informative reading many of them.
I do expect some movement very soon. Too much money at stake on both sides


The '94 strike that spilled into the next season is the most recent work stoppage in baseball.  Neither party seemed concerned with the money that was being lost as the playoffs and World Series, their big money-makers, were cancelled.  I know a lot of money stands to be lost again but, when egos get in the way, I don't trust these guys to do the prudent thing.
I just looked at a ST schedule and the Bucs are about 7 weeks out until the first weekend of ST games. I am hoping both sides soon get together to resume negotiations. On the other hand I do want to see some change in the balance between large and small market teams, so if the lockout takes longer to reach that resolution than I am fine if they lose ST games, or whatever it takes to begin to even the playing field.