767A737E69356F7276746F7362292B5B7C761B0 wrote: Chad Hermansen was a can't miss prospect, and that was when he was a lot older than 19.
Yep, you take a chance on anyone this young . That is why GM"s are really good or really bad . I wonder if Ben has a 5-year contract .
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
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D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
At this time nobody knows if these two 19 year old prospects will make it to the Majors. I have trust that both Ben Cherington and his assistant Steve Sanders have the ability to locate and develop young prospects into very good major league players. As it has been said teams have become very reluctant to trade high end prospects who are close to the major leagues, so in many cases when a player like Marte gets traded the return are younger players with high upside such as the 2 players the Pirates received.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
I am not a regular reader of the Pirates' Official Site. Further, I believe WAR, as a statistic, has many faults. That said, the following statement on the official site perhaps sums up the state of this franchise very succinctly.
"Consider this. The Pirates’ 98-win team in 2015 featured four players who posted 4-plus WAR, according to Baseball-Reference: Marte, McCutchen, Cole and Jung Ho Kang. Since then, they’ve had two 4-WAR players in four years: Marte in '16 and Jameson Taillon in ’18"
Most teams win because they have one or more superstars on the team and a strong cast of supporting talent. The Bucs now lack any superstar talent, and the supporting cast is quite thin.
I don't know if Malone and Peguero will ever become major league players let alone someone who can provide a 4+ WAR value. Peguero, however, is rated as someone who could reach that level. If the Bucs ever want to become a break-out team that can again compete for the play-offs, they will need more high-end talent. And, the only way they are going to acquire such is to draft it, sign it (international slots) or pick it up in trades, because there is no way that they are going to be signing top free agents.
Cherington, in some measures, took a risk. However, as the current team was likely going no where, the risk was really quite low in trading one of your better players. I am hoping at some point that the Bucs have so many talented shortstops - Cruz, Peguero, Cole and Newman - for the major league level that they can fill out half of the on-field team: CF, LF, 2nd, and SS, or one or more can be used to acquire other talent that is needed.
And, trying to build up some enthusiasm for what is likely to be a very long year at the ML level --- Go Bucs!
"Consider this. The Pirates’ 98-win team in 2015 featured four players who posted 4-plus WAR, according to Baseball-Reference: Marte, McCutchen, Cole and Jung Ho Kang. Since then, they’ve had two 4-WAR players in four years: Marte in '16 and Jameson Taillon in ’18"
Most teams win because they have one or more superstars on the team and a strong cast of supporting talent. The Bucs now lack any superstar talent, and the supporting cast is quite thin.
I don't know if Malone and Peguero will ever become major league players let alone someone who can provide a 4+ WAR value. Peguero, however, is rated as someone who could reach that level. If the Bucs ever want to become a break-out team that can again compete for the play-offs, they will need more high-end talent. And, the only way they are going to acquire such is to draft it, sign it (international slots) or pick it up in trades, because there is no way that they are going to be signing top free agents.
Cherington, in some measures, took a risk. However, as the current team was likely going no where, the risk was really quite low in trading one of your better players. I am hoping at some point that the Bucs have so many talented shortstops - Cruz, Peguero, Cole and Newman - for the major league level that they can fill out half of the on-field team: CF, LF, 2nd, and SS, or one or more can be used to acquire other talent that is needed.
And, trying to build up some enthusiasm for what is likely to be a very long year at the ML level --- Go Bucs!
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
366076626D77676C6176446369656D682A67040 wrote: NH's approach was to look for players who are major league ready. That's how you get Moran at third and Gonzalez at wherever. That's also building a 500 team. If you want to improve you have to have higher ceiling talent and the only way you get that is to take players farther from the majors. Only in the rarest situations are GM's willing to trade high-ceiling players ready for majors (and a goof there can get you fired - witness NH). I like the idea that Cherrington is willing to go for it, even as I realize it means two years of watching younger players learn at the ML level (on the other hand, some of them may surprise us).
If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too?
I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to. I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels. And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran. Some end up to be better.
High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.
But not all major league-ready talent is like Moran. Some are worse but some are better. My point is that, generally, more is known about the players who are closest to playing in the major leagues. They've already conquered the things that can go wrong at the various minor league levels.
Ok but they aren't in the window it appears the Pirates feel they can compete. Also MLB ready above average talent is going to be much harder to acquire.
If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too?
I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to. I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels. And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran. Some end up to be better.
High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.
But not all major league-ready talent is like Moran. Some are worse but some are better. My point is that, generally, more is known about the players who are closest to playing in the major leagues. They've already conquered the things that can go wrong at the various minor league levels.
Ok but they aren't in the window it appears the Pirates feel they can compete. Also MLB ready above average talent is going to be much harder to acquire.
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2drfischer@gmail.c
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
3F3E2534226265510 wrote: NH's approach was to look for players who are major league ready. That's how you get Moran at third and Gonzalez at wherever. That's also building a 500 team. If you want to improve you have to have higher ceiling talent and the only way you get that is to take players farther from the majors. Only in the rarest situations are GM's willing to trade high-ceiling players ready for majors (and a goof there can get you fired - witness NH). I like the idea that Cherrington is willing to go for it, even as I realize it means two years of watching younger players learn at the ML level (on the other hand, some of them may surprise us).
If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too?
I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to. I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels. And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran. Some end up to be better.
High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.
But not all major league-ready talent is like Moran. Some are worse but some are better. My point is that, generally, more is known about the players who are closest to playing in the major leagues. They've already conquered the things that can go wrong at the various minor league levels.
Ok but they aren't in the window it appears the Pirates feel they can compete. Also MLB ready above average talent is going to be much harder to acquire.
I should clarify that I'm not against the acquisition of these two players. If BC's plan is to build for 2023, then he's done the right thing. I was just hoping for guys who are ready to play in Pittsburgh now. Guys who're major league-ready now would still be here in 2023, with three years of experience under their belts, that would not only serve them but also the younger players who need veterans to help them acclimate.
If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too?
I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to. I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels. And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran. Some end up to be better.
High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.
But not all major league-ready talent is like Moran. Some are worse but some are better. My point is that, generally, more is known about the players who are closest to playing in the major leagues. They've already conquered the things that can go wrong at the various minor league levels.
Ok but they aren't in the window it appears the Pirates feel they can compete. Also MLB ready above average talent is going to be much harder to acquire.
I should clarify that I'm not against the acquisition of these two players. If BC's plan is to build for 2023, then he's done the right thing. I was just hoping for guys who are ready to play in Pittsburgh now. Guys who're major league-ready now would still be here in 2023, with three years of experience under their belts, that would not only serve them but also the younger players who need veterans to help them acclimate.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
Color me VERY skeptical. I think Marte is a fantastic accessory talent, but not a foundational talent, so I do not have a strategic problem with the trade. I believe going to Arizona will be good for him, and wish him the best. The talent we received in the trade may well be elite, and so this could be a win on paper. But even if the players we get are great, so what? The word is, trade Bell now, we won't keep him if we have to pay market value. What's the point of developing talented ballplayers, if as they reach their prime, they walk? If we won't even keep Marte, how are we going to build a competitive team? If we won't keep players like Marte or Bell, then we certainly won't acquire better players (and their salaries), so where does that leave us?
Are we diehard fans crossing our fingers waiting for a perfect storm, or chumps? I'm all for a rebuild, I want to watch this team open some eyes and be the target for the Cards and Cube. I'd love to see us develop strategies that make other clubs question their methods, but I'm not real excited about developing players only to watch them excel in other markets.
Are we diehard fans crossing our fingers waiting for a perfect storm, or chumps? I'm all for a rebuild, I want to watch this team open some eyes and be the target for the Cards and Cube. I'd love to see us develop strategies that make other clubs question their methods, but I'm not real excited about developing players only to watch them excel in other markets.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
18343C3B3017203626550 wrote: I am not a regular reader of the Pirates' Official Site. Further, I believe WAR, as a statistic, has many faults. That said, the following statement on the official site perhaps sums up the state of this franchise very succinctly.
"Consider this. The Pirates’ 98-win team in 2015 featured four players who posted 4-plus WAR, according to Baseball-Reference: Marte, McCutchen, Cole and Jung Ho Kang. Since then, they’ve had two 4-WAR players in four years: Marte in '16 and Jameson Taillon in ’18"
Most teams win because they have one or more superstars on the team and a strong cast of supporting talent. The Bucs now lack any superstar talent, and the supporting cast is quite thin.
I don't know if Malone and Peguero will ever become major league players let alone someone who can provide a 4+ WAR value. Peguero, however, is rated as someone who could reach that level. If the Bucs ever want to become a break-out team that can again compete for the play-offs, they will need more high-end talent. And, the only way they are going to acquire such is to draft it, sign it (international slots) or pick it up in trades, because there is no way that they are going to be signing top free agents.
Cherington, in some measures, took a risk. However, as the current team was likely going no where, the risk was really quite low in trading one of your better players. I am hoping at some point that the Bucs have so many talented shortstops - Cruz, Peguero, Cole and Newman - for the major league level that they can fill out half of the on-field team: CF, LF, 2nd, and SS, or one or more can be used to acquire other talent that is needed.
And, trying to build up some enthusiasm for what is likely to be a very long year at the ML level --- Go Bucs!
My enthusiasm is based on who is expected to be the top overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. This will come down between us, Detroit and Baltimore, maybe Florida.
"Consider this. The Pirates’ 98-win team in 2015 featured four players who posted 4-plus WAR, according to Baseball-Reference: Marte, McCutchen, Cole and Jung Ho Kang. Since then, they’ve had two 4-WAR players in four years: Marte in '16 and Jameson Taillon in ’18"
Most teams win because they have one or more superstars on the team and a strong cast of supporting talent. The Bucs now lack any superstar talent, and the supporting cast is quite thin.
I don't know if Malone and Peguero will ever become major league players let alone someone who can provide a 4+ WAR value. Peguero, however, is rated as someone who could reach that level. If the Bucs ever want to become a break-out team that can again compete for the play-offs, they will need more high-end talent. And, the only way they are going to acquire such is to draft it, sign it (international slots) or pick it up in trades, because there is no way that they are going to be signing top free agents.
Cherington, in some measures, took a risk. However, as the current team was likely going no where, the risk was really quite low in trading one of your better players. I am hoping at some point that the Bucs have so many talented shortstops - Cruz, Peguero, Cole and Newman - for the major league level that they can fill out half of the on-field team: CF, LF, 2nd, and SS, or one or more can be used to acquire other talent that is needed.
And, trying to build up some enthusiasm for what is likely to be a very long year at the ML level --- Go Bucs!
My enthusiasm is based on who is expected to be the top overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. This will come down between us, Detroit and Baltimore, maybe Florida.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
My first reaction on this deal is that BC wants to get high end talent and doesn't think he can put together a contending team for at least 3 or 4 years.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
103637203626550 wrote: My first reaction on this deal is that BC wants to get high end talent and doesn't think he can put together a contending team for at least 3 or 4 years.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
I think the plan is pretty much set to punt the next three or four years. A year from now, our offseason will look a lot like this, except it will be Bell that is dealt. We signed Robbie Erlin to our pen today.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
I think the plan is pretty much set to punt the next three or four years. A year from now, our offseason will look a lot like this, except it will be Bell that is dealt. We signed Robbie Erlin to our pen today.
D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)
1D0D0C3B2D2D214E0 wrote: My first reaction on this deal is that BC wants to get high end talent and doesn't think he can put together a contending team for at least 3 or 4 years.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
I think the plan is pretty much set to punt the next three or four years. A year from now, our offseason will look a lot like this, except it will be Bell that is dealt. We signed Robbie Erlin to our pen today.
This is the right approach. It's not fun, but it's what needs to happen. It should have happened after 2016. They arguably started after 2015 with the Walker and Morton trades. They just didn't go far enough. Excuse my bluntness, but halfassing it is what gets you 75 wins. It's far better to win 55 games than 75. 95 is best, but far better to be horrid than mediocre. Mediocre breeds mediocre. At least horrid gives you hope that you can become the Astros. Cheating aside, that team was built from tanking, trades, and signing the right IFAs. There weren't very many stud FA signings that won them a title. It was drafting Correa and Springer, and finding Keuchel in the 7th round. It was signing guys like Altuve and Gurriel, and then trading for Cole at the bottom of his value, knowing that he was underperforming.
Point is though...tanking works. The years you're going through it are no fun, and frankly, I'll probably get a lot more reading and golf done this summer than years past. But if it yields a team that can win 95+ games, it's worth it.
Trading Marte for average "ML ready" guys is a DL strategy, and and NH one. The right approach is to trade for high ceiling guys, far from the majors, and irrespective of position. If we someohow become the first team in MLB history to have too many good players, we can trade them away.
I don't know anything about the guys they got from Arizona, but that's beside the point. Presumably, the people scouting them do know something about them, and if their track record in Boston and Toronto is any indicator, we'll be ok. Maybe not on this one trade, but overall, they'll get more right than they get wrong.
Maybe he thinks that because of a review of the talent in the system, or maybe it is a combination of what the talent is in the system and the constraints he has in bringing additional talent into the system quickly.
It looks to me like he is not going to count on more than a few of the players that were contributors last year to be contributors when he thinks the team can contend (Keller, Reynolds and Newman).
Musgrove, Archer, Williams, Taillon, Bell, Frazier will all be gone if they are consistently good ballplayers. They will play themselves out of the Bucs price range. If Reynolds keeps it up he may be gone by then too unless the Bucs payroll changes. Reynolds may still be arbitration eligible but lets say he is Mookie Betts light. I will believe the Bucs will pay someone $20 million a year when it happens.
If BC is successful, the Bucs could have a great young team by 2024 and then it will be his job to keep it great.
One way to do that is for the team to be a lot more successful in signing young international players. In order to replenish the team, international players and the draft are going to have to produce a lot more players than they have in the past and more players with high ceilings.
As the past few years have shown, projections often fall short so you need to have a lot of people in the pipeline to replace those who fade away either due to injury or just topping out on their talent.
As an older fan, I was hoping BC would come in and think he could produce a winner by 2022 but it looks like his evaluation of the team's talent at this point has made him look further down the road.
I think the plan is pretty much set to punt the next three or four years. A year from now, our offseason will look a lot like this, except it will be Bell that is dealt. We signed Robbie Erlin to our pen today.
This is the right approach. It's not fun, but it's what needs to happen. It should have happened after 2016. They arguably started after 2015 with the Walker and Morton trades. They just didn't go far enough. Excuse my bluntness, but halfassing it is what gets you 75 wins. It's far better to win 55 games than 75. 95 is best, but far better to be horrid than mediocre. Mediocre breeds mediocre. At least horrid gives you hope that you can become the Astros. Cheating aside, that team was built from tanking, trades, and signing the right IFAs. There weren't very many stud FA signings that won them a title. It was drafting Correa and Springer, and finding Keuchel in the 7th round. It was signing guys like Altuve and Gurriel, and then trading for Cole at the bottom of his value, knowing that he was underperforming.
Point is though...tanking works. The years you're going through it are no fun, and frankly, I'll probably get a lot more reading and golf done this summer than years past. But if it yields a team that can win 95+ games, it's worth it.
Trading Marte for average "ML ready" guys is a DL strategy, and and NH one. The right approach is to trade for high ceiling guys, far from the majors, and irrespective of position. If we someohow become the first team in MLB history to have too many good players, we can trade them away.
I don't know anything about the guys they got from Arizona, but that's beside the point. Presumably, the people scouting them do know something about them, and if their track record in Boston and Toronto is any indicator, we'll be ok. Maybe not on this one trade, but overall, they'll get more right than they get wrong.