Rocker vs Leiter as it now stands.
Posted: Sat May 22, 2021 7:40 pm
7A575A4B4C5D4A0A09380 wrote: Rocker and Leiter were virtually identical in their starts against Kentucky.......
Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs........
Seriously. I think Bobster said it would almost be better picking 3rd or so - one would fall into our lap.
I’m trying to think like a GM for the Pirates. I’ve really intrigued by Lawlar but the Pirates need a player before Lawlar would be available. And a HS player is ultimately riskier. The pitchers seem obvious, but it’s clear they have “come back to the pack” a bit. I would love to have a true #1, somebody that can dominate a wildcard game. But our track record is pretty bad. Even Cole - we got about one really outstanding season. As much as I want that dominate #1, I don’t have confidence in pitchers.
If Davis does indeed pull into that very top of the list, then I think he has to be #1 - the thing I would be watching is how far along he is in truly managing the staff. If he can do that, given the younger pitchers this staff will have, I can’t think of a better option for the Pirates.
But I get the temptation of a pitcher.
One thing I do know - the Pirates must not wiff on another 1st round.
The problem with drafting pitchers is that because of the FA system you can pick the right guy and still essentially whiff on your #1 pick. Very few pitchers dominate as rookies. Even the best take several years to reach their ceiling. But free agency kicks in after 6 years and if you don't want the player to walk while receiving nothing in exchange, you have to deal him with 1-2 years of control left. So the window of having them at their best is very small. Two examples:
Gerrit Cole-Pirates waited until June to bring him up in 2013 so it didn't count as a service time year. So he was not a FA until after 2019. He had 2 reasonably good seasons in 2013-14 before having an outstanding one in 2015. Injuries limited his games and his performance in 2015 and he was disappointing in 2016 (12-12, 4.26 ERA). With 2 years of control left he was dealt to get a better return. In service years 5.5 (2017) and 6.5 (2018) he reached his ceiling with Houston and then walked as a FA. The Pirates suffered thru his growing pains and injuries and got 1 truly good year from him in 4.5 seasons before the window closed before there would not have been enough control to make it worth Houston's time to give up much for him. And even then, the return on the trade was not great.
Stephen Strasburg-Nats waited until June in rookie year of 2010 to get an extra year of service. So FA would kick in after 2016 season. Before his rookie season was over he needed TJS and then missed most of 2011. Had good but not great seasons after that and then Nats gave him a contract extension in 2016 thru 2019 and then signed him as a FA after 2019 season. This is now his 12th year with them and they've gotten a lot from him but most of that was after the extension and now into free agent years. But if they had not extended him and instead had dealt him before he would walk, his career with the Nats would have been similar to Cole's with the Pirates.
The moral of the story is that if you are going to endure the growing pains and the injuries you better believe you have a good chance to keep the pitcher into his FA years to get the benefit of his best seasons. Otherwise you are only warming him up for some other team to reap the rewards. In Cole, the Astros got and the Yankees are getting what you would expect of the #1 overall draft pick. But in the short window the Pirates had at the beginning of his career, they got little from him. The Nats got little from Strasburg initially but eliminated the small window and held onto him and won a WS in which he was MVP several years after he could have left as a FA but didn't.
The Pirates can't afford to take a pitcher and spend his short period with them training him to excel for his next team. That's not much better than whiffing altogether on the pick.
Yes the Pirates need a high level catching prospect in their system.
Although I do want to see how Endy Rodriguez develops. I will admit that I do not know much about Davis. I do know however that we whiffed on Sanchez previously.
In football you typically draft for positional need. Baseball is different and it is truly a crapshoot. But the fact remains that pitching gets you to the playoffs and wins you titles. That is why it is so expensive to even pay an average pitcher.
At some point Nutting will need to keep a prospect that has developed into a star or contention will just be a pipe dream.
This draft has 2 dominant pitchers; you have to get one of them.
I like the pitching depth that BC has been collecting in our Minors.
Having pitching depth will allow you to get other positional players.
Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs........
Seriously. I think Bobster said it would almost be better picking 3rd or so - one would fall into our lap.
I’m trying to think like a GM for the Pirates. I’ve really intrigued by Lawlar but the Pirates need a player before Lawlar would be available. And a HS player is ultimately riskier. The pitchers seem obvious, but it’s clear they have “come back to the pack” a bit. I would love to have a true #1, somebody that can dominate a wildcard game. But our track record is pretty bad. Even Cole - we got about one really outstanding season. As much as I want that dominate #1, I don’t have confidence in pitchers.
If Davis does indeed pull into that very top of the list, then I think he has to be #1 - the thing I would be watching is how far along he is in truly managing the staff. If he can do that, given the younger pitchers this staff will have, I can’t think of a better option for the Pirates.
But I get the temptation of a pitcher.
One thing I do know - the Pirates must not wiff on another 1st round.
The problem with drafting pitchers is that because of the FA system you can pick the right guy and still essentially whiff on your #1 pick. Very few pitchers dominate as rookies. Even the best take several years to reach their ceiling. But free agency kicks in after 6 years and if you don't want the player to walk while receiving nothing in exchange, you have to deal him with 1-2 years of control left. So the window of having them at their best is very small. Two examples:
Gerrit Cole-Pirates waited until June to bring him up in 2013 so it didn't count as a service time year. So he was not a FA until after 2019. He had 2 reasonably good seasons in 2013-14 before having an outstanding one in 2015. Injuries limited his games and his performance in 2015 and he was disappointing in 2016 (12-12, 4.26 ERA). With 2 years of control left he was dealt to get a better return. In service years 5.5 (2017) and 6.5 (2018) he reached his ceiling with Houston and then walked as a FA. The Pirates suffered thru his growing pains and injuries and got 1 truly good year from him in 4.5 seasons before the window closed before there would not have been enough control to make it worth Houston's time to give up much for him. And even then, the return on the trade was not great.
Stephen Strasburg-Nats waited until June in rookie year of 2010 to get an extra year of service. So FA would kick in after 2016 season. Before his rookie season was over he needed TJS and then missed most of 2011. Had good but not great seasons after that and then Nats gave him a contract extension in 2016 thru 2019 and then signed him as a FA after 2019 season. This is now his 12th year with them and they've gotten a lot from him but most of that was after the extension and now into free agent years. But if they had not extended him and instead had dealt him before he would walk, his career with the Nats would have been similar to Cole's with the Pirates.
The moral of the story is that if you are going to endure the growing pains and the injuries you better believe you have a good chance to keep the pitcher into his FA years to get the benefit of his best seasons. Otherwise you are only warming him up for some other team to reap the rewards. In Cole, the Astros got and the Yankees are getting what you would expect of the #1 overall draft pick. But in the short window the Pirates had at the beginning of his career, they got little from him. The Nats got little from Strasburg initially but eliminated the small window and held onto him and won a WS in which he was MVP several years after he could have left as a FA but didn't.
The Pirates can't afford to take a pitcher and spend his short period with them training him to excel for his next team. That's not much better than whiffing altogether on the pick.
Yes the Pirates need a high level catching prospect in their system.
Although I do want to see how Endy Rodriguez develops. I will admit that I do not know much about Davis. I do know however that we whiffed on Sanchez previously.
In football you typically draft for positional need. Baseball is different and it is truly a crapshoot. But the fact remains that pitching gets you to the playoffs and wins you titles. That is why it is so expensive to even pay an average pitcher.
At some point Nutting will need to keep a prospect that has developed into a star or contention will just be a pipe dream.
This draft has 2 dominant pitchers; you have to get one of them.
I like the pitching depth that BC has been collecting in our Minors.
Having pitching depth will allow you to get other positional players.