D-backs closing in on Marte trade (report)

[rucker59@gmail.com]

55676B6B7F4D6E676A6F6067060 wrote: I think Marte was under-valued by Pirates fans.  Part of that was of his own doing:  some of it was that people were dreaming on a superstar level player and only got very very good.  I don't think anyone should be shocked if he gets out there into that Arizona stadium and puts up a 30/30 type season.



Still it's hard to disagree that it was the right move to make a deal.  It's fair and fun to argue about whether we got the right return because who's to know who's right or wrong about that.


I certainly respect your opinion, but I would have said Pirate fans over estimated Marte’s value. I don’t think his potential was ever over rated, but his actual value never really approached the potential. I do agree with others that predict a big year for Marte - this organization is cursed in such matters...

[PMike]

3730262E2037707C052228242C296B262A28450 wrote: Marte should have been traded three years ago.   For some reason Neil valued Marte much higher than he was worth.  There are two years left on a $24M contract for a 3.0 WAR player that’s been nailed for PEDs and regularly takes plays off. 



The Pirates shed $24M and got two Middlin prospects.  If the Pirates wanted more they needed to pick up a significant part of Marte’s contract.  They can’t send Marte AND $22.5M to the Dback and expect a huge return. 



I’ll say it again - Marte should have been traded instead of Meadows. I wish there was more in return.  But I’m just glad his lazy butt has moved on.


Couldn't agree more.  I wasn't a Marte fan.  His laziness and low baseball IQ really bothered me.  He could've been a much better all-around player had he chosen to apply himself more consistently.



The trade bothers me in that the prospects are so far away from reaching Pittsburgh, if they ever do.  The further away a prospect is, the more that can go wrong to derail his career.  I was really hoping for player(s) who were major league-ready.


I posted this before about having a discussion with a well-known scout at the time about evaluating young baseball talent . I asked him how he did it. His response was they need to be a high-end five-tool player then you hope like hell that they perform. SO Ben better be right since Marte was out biggest chip to play. I guessed a rebuild was coming but I was hoping it would take less time then 3 or 4 years .




While Marte may not be the biggest chip Ben had to play (that would be Bell), think about what it says of this Pirate team: Marte represents one of the few players with apparent value, and he netted the organization 2 second tier A level prospects.  Other than Bell, that’s all this team is worth. 



YIKES!



How does Ben rebuild with this reality?  Bell AND nothing!  Do the Pirates have to move whatever pitching they have for 2020 in order to build something in 2023?  Musgrove, Keller and Williams could bring a new future.  Why hold onto any of them?




I think it is a mischaracterization to say that these two prospects are second tier. I haven't seen them personally, nor were they on my radar before the trade. However, it is very clear that the "top prospects" in baseball are those who have successfully made it to top levels of the minors. Being a "top prospect" has less to do with talent, skill set, projection or potential. Those prospects, since they are rated so highly, are increasingly very difficult to trade for. By all accounts, these two prospects are super highly talented, have high pedigrees, and have very high ceilings. I haven't heard any analysis (national) that suggests these two guys were anything less than top prospects...just young. Personally, I'd rather that we traded for these two high potential prospects who are in low A over Varsho (who isn't super high upside) just because he is a catcher, and a lower level prospect who doesn't have much of a ceiling. The Pirates need to trade for those who have big potential however they can.



NH's problem was that he went for low upside guys that were close to the majors. However, he actually nailed this approach when he got O'Neil Cruz from the Dodgers for Watson. O'Neil was a low level prospect who looked the wrong size for his position. Now he is one of the top prospects in our system. I think it wouldn't be surprising to see these two guys we got in the trade as top 5 prospects in the system and top 50/100 prospects in baseball in 2 years.

[notes34]

0D5B4D59564C5C575A4D7F58525E5653115C3F0 wrote: NH's approach was to look for players who are major league ready. That's how you get Moran at third and Gonzalez at wherever. That's also building a 500 team. If you want to improve you have to have higher ceiling talent and the only way you get that is to take players farther from the majors. Only in the rarest situations are GM's willing to trade high-ceiling players ready for majors (and a goof there can get you fired - witness NH). I like the idea that Cherrington is willing to go for it, even as I realize it means two years of watching younger players learn at the ML level (on the other hand, some of them may surprise us).


If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too? 



I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to.  I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels.  And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran.  Some end up to be better.


High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.

[notes34]

316771656A70606B667143646E626A6F2D60030 wrote: Marte should have been traded three years ago.   For some reason Neil valued Marte much higher than he was worth.  There are two years left on a $24M contract for a 3.0 WAR player that’s been nailed for PEDs and regularly takes plays off. 



The Pirates shed $24M and got two Middlin prospects.  If the Pirates wanted more they needed to pick up a significant part of Marte’s contract.  They can’t send Marte AND $22.5M to the Dback and expect a huge return. 



I’ll say it again - Marte should have been traded instead of Meadows. I wish there was more in return.  But I’m just glad his lazy butt has moved on.


Couldn't agree more.  I wasn't a Marte fan.  His laziness and low baseball IQ really bothered me.  He could've been a much better all-around player had he chosen to apply himself more consistently.



The trade bothers me in that the prospects are so far away from reaching Pittsburgh, if they ever do.  The further away a prospect is, the more that can go wrong to derail his career.  I was really hoping for player(s) who were major league-ready.


I posted this before about having a discussion with a well-known scout at the time about evaluating young baseball talent . I asked him how he did it. His response was they need to be a high-end five-tool player then you hope like hell that they perform. SO Ben better be right since Marte was out biggest chip to play. I guessed a rebuild was coming but I was hoping it would take less time then 3 or 4 years .




Love those five-tool players, but there are so few of them.  "Hoping" draftees turn into them doesn't seem like a solid plan.  I'm glad I didn't have to make my living finding those guys.  I'd be living under a bridge.


What else can the Pirates do? They have to draft and hope they are correct on guys turning into superstars. That really is the only plan. They aren't going out and buying a roster of proven above average MLB talent. They have to take risks and hope players reach their potential. What other way is there?

[Bobster21]

4F5276747A1F0 wrote: Marte should have been traded three years ago.   For some reason Neil valued Marte much higher than he was worth.  There are two years left on a $24M contract for a 3.0 WAR player that’s been nailed for PEDs and regularly takes plays off. 



The Pirates shed $24M and got two Middlin prospects.  If the Pirates wanted more they needed to pick up a significant part of Marte’s contract.  They can’t send Marte AND $22.5M to the Dback and expect a huge return. 



I’ll say it again - Marte should have been traded instead of Meadows. I wish there was more in return.  But I’m just glad his lazy butt has moved on.


Couldn't agree more.  I wasn't a Marte fan.  His laziness and low baseball IQ really bothered me.  He could've been a much better all-around player had he chosen to apply himself more consistently.



The trade bothers me in that the prospects are so far away from reaching Pittsburgh, if they ever do.  The further away a prospect is, the more that can go wrong to derail his career.  I was really hoping for player(s) who were major league-ready.


I posted this before about having a discussion with a well-known scout at the time about evaluating young baseball talent . I asked him how he did it. His response was they need to be a high-end five-tool player then you hope like hell that they perform. SO Ben better be right since Marte was out biggest chip to play. I guessed a rebuild was coming but I was hoping it would take less time then 3 or 4 years .




While Marte may not be the biggest chip Ben had to play (that would be Bell), think about what it says of this Pirate team: Marte represents one of the few players with apparent value, and he netted the organization 2 second tier A level prospects.  Other than Bell, that’s all this team is worth. 



YIKES!



How does Ben rebuild with this reality?  Bell AND nothing!  Do the Pirates have to move whatever pitching they have for 2020 in order to build something in 2023?  Musgrove, Keller and Williams could bring a new future.  Why hold onto any of them?




I think it is a mischaracterization to say that these two prospects are second tier.  I haven't seen them personally, nor were they on my radar before the trade.  However, it is very clear that the "top prospects" in baseball are those who have successfully made it to top levels of the minors.  Being a "top prospect" has less to do with talent, skill set, projection or potential.  Those prospects, since they are rated so highly, are increasingly very difficult to trade for.  By all accounts, these two prospects are super highly talented, have high pedigrees, and have very high ceilings.  I haven't heard any analysis (national) that suggests these two guys were anything less than top prospects...just young.  Personally, I'd rather that we traded for these two high potential prospects who are in low A over Varsho (who isn't super high upside) just because he is a catcher, and a lower level prospect who doesn't have much of a ceiling.  The Pirates need to trade for those who have big potential however they can.



NH's problem was that he went for low upside guys that were close to the majors.  However, he actually nailed this approach when he got O'Neil Cruz from the Dodgers for Watson.  O'Neil was a low level prospect who looked the wrong size for his position.  Now he is one of the top prospects in our system.  I think it wouldn't be surprising to see these two guys we got in the trade as top 5 prospects in the system and top 50/100 prospects in baseball in 2 years.
I think this is becoming the way of the world in MLB. Teams have become very reluctant to trade their top prospects. The economics of MLB inspire teams to develop home grown talent that will be cost effective for 4-5 years before the cost goes way up via arb and free agency. And when they trade top prospects for productive veterans they are obtaining players at a high cost (even Marte's 24 mil over 2 years is considered reasonable but it's still 24 mil) and for a short period of time (Marte's 2 remaining years of control is about as good as it gets when trading for a veteran under contract). So when a GM looks at his prospects who are excelling in AA or AAA, he sees about 6 years of control at reasonable cost as opposed to obtaining a veteran for a great deal more money and a much shorter time. GMs can also look at how the Meadows/Glasnow/Baz for Archer deal turned out for the GM who was subsequently fired. That is, simply losing those top prospects can be a disaster to a franchise.



So when a team is in the market for a productive veteran to round out their roster, they would generally rather do without than give up prospects who have emerged thru each level of the minors to demonstrate that they will likely be huge contributors at the MLB level. This puts GMs looking to acquire prospects in the position of having to get them before they begin to excel at the higher minor league levels and become untouchable. As PMike said, Malone and Peguero meet the criteria of being very talented, high upside but still in the early stage of development that have not taken them to the untouchable stage. The trick is to identify such players, properly develop them so that they reach the potential they show so early in their careers. Of course there are no guarantees on that. But that's what teams looking to acquire prospects have to do. We don't know enough about BC to know if we can have faith in his judgment, who he consults, etc. But I understand the theory behind the deal and hope BC does his homework. Only time will tell.

[SammyKhalifa]

787F69616F783F334A6D676B6366246965670A0 wrote: I think Marte was under-valued by Pirates fans.  Part of that was of his own doing:  some of it was that people were dreaming on a superstar level player and only got very very good.  I don't think anyone should be shocked if he gets out there into that Arizona stadium and puts up a 30/30 type season.



Still it's hard to disagree that it was the right move to make a deal.  It's fair and fun to argue about whether we got the right return because who's to know who's right or wrong about that.


I certainly respect your opinion, but I would have said Pirate fans over estimated Marte’s value.  I don’t think his potential was ever over rated, but his actual value never really approached the potential.  I do agree with others that predict a big year for Marte - this organization is cursed in such matters...




Maybe I should have phrased it that we expected a superstar with all the hype coming up, and instead got really good; so people have been disappointed and many haven't stepped back to see that he's still really good.  Somewhere recently I read a quote something to the effect that you need to be careful that you're looking at Wins Above Replacement not Wins Below Expectations.



I do think he'll have a good year too, combination of things mostly ballpark and lineup related. 

[shedman]

I see no difference between Cherington and Huntington except for the first four letters of their last name. They both trade away our top players for A ball prospects/suspects and they always kick the can down the roadand pump a future which never arrives in Pittsburgh.

[2drfischer@gmail.c]

46475C4D5B1B1C280 wrote: NH's approach was to look for players who are major league ready. That's how you get Moran at third and Gonzalez at wherever. That's also building a 500 team. If you want to improve you have to have higher ceiling talent and the only way you get that is to take players farther from the majors. Only in the rarest situations are GM's willing to trade high-ceiling players ready for majors (and a goof there can get you fired - witness NH). I like the idea that Cherrington is willing to go for it, even as I realize it means two years of watching younger players learn at the ML level (on the other hand, some of them may surprise us).


If high ceiling talent is a precious commodity, why would teams trade those kinds of players, too? 



I'm not opposed to the trade because I have no idea what these players will amount to.  I was just hoping for players who're closer to playing in the major leagues because they've proven themselves at higher levels.  And not all major league-ready players end up to be Colin Moran.  Some end up to be better.


High ceiling talent is certainly a precious commodity. With that said it's much easy to trade high ceiling players that are further away from the big show. Getting MLB ready players sounds to me like settling for mediocre talent like Moran.


But not all major league-ready talent is like Moran. Some are worse but some are better. My point is that, generally, more is known about the players who are closest to playing in the major leagues. They've already conquered the things that can go wrong at the various minor league levels.

[2drfischer@gmail.c]

4D4C5746501017230 wrote: Marte should have been traded three years ago.   For some reason Neil valued Marte much higher than he was worth.  There are two years left on a $24M contract for a 3.0 WAR player that’s been nailed for PEDs and regularly takes plays off. 



The Pirates shed $24M and got two Middlin prospects.  If the Pirates wanted more they needed to pick up a significant part of Marte’s contract.  They can’t send Marte AND $22.5M to the Dback and expect a huge return. 



I’ll say it again - Marte should have been traded instead of Meadows. I wish there was more in return.  But I’m just glad his lazy butt has moved on.


Couldn't agree more.  I wasn't a Marte fan.  His laziness and low baseball IQ really bothered me.  He could've been a much better all-around player had he chosen to apply himself more consistently.



The trade bothers me in that the prospects are so far away from reaching Pittsburgh, if they ever do.  The further away a prospect is, the more that can go wrong to derail his career.  I was really hoping for player(s) who were major league-ready.


I posted this before about having a discussion with a well-known scout at the time about evaluating young baseball talent . I asked him how he did it. His response was they need to be a high-end five-tool player then you hope like hell that they perform. SO Ben better be right since Marte was out biggest chip to play. I guessed a rebuild was coming but I was hoping it would take less time then 3 or 4 years .




Love those five-tool players, but there are so few of them.  "Hoping" draftees turn into them doesn't seem like a solid plan.  I'm glad I didn't have to make my living finding those guys.  I'd be living under a bridge.


What else can the Pirates do? They have to draft and hope they are correct on guys turning into superstars. That really is the only plan. They aren't going out and buying a roster of proven above average MLB talent. They have to take risks and hope players reach their potential. What other way is there?




It seems to me that "hope" can be used as an excuse, a fall-back position. Working hard to draft the right players and then working hard to develop them in the right way is taking action, rather than sitting back and hoping good talent has been acquired. Isn't the military fond of saying that "hope is not a plan"? Preparation, hard work, and action are what's needed.

[UtahPirate]

685A56564270535A57525D5A3B0 wrote: I think Marte was under-valued by Pirates fans.  Part of that was of his own doing:  some of it was that people were dreaming on a superstar level player and only got very very good.  I don't think anyone should be shocked if he gets out there into that Arizona stadium and puts up a 30/30 type season.



Still it's hard to disagree that it was the right move to make a deal.  It's fair and fun to argue about whether we got the right return because who's to know who's right or wrong about that.


I certainly respect your opinion, but I would have said Pirate fans over estimated Marte’s value.  I don’t think his potential was ever over rated, but his actual value never really approached the potential.  I do agree with others that predict a big year for Marte - this organization is cursed in such matters...




Maybe I should have phrased it that we expected a superstar with all the hype coming up, and instead got really good; so people have been disappointed and many haven't stepped back to see that he's still really good.  Somewhere recently I read a quote something to the effect that you need to be careful that you're looking at Wins Above Replacement not Wins Below Expectations.



I do think he'll have a good year too, combination of things mostly ballpark and lineup related. 




Interesting reading fans reactions about the trade (finally some Bucco baseball). It's either Marte was under-appreciated, or he was, well, asleep on the field too often. That bias then results in whether you think the trade was a good one or not.



I don't consume Pirate baseball day after day for 162 games, so surely I missed a lot of innings that might make me more critical of Marte. But I do watch quite a bit and I have to say that I loved his personal journey to the majors since in was such a great story of overcoming his personal poverty. One that was a bit unlike others you hear. And maybe that's why I enjoyed watching him and would call myself a fan as I was hugely sympathetic about what it took him to get here.



So color me, at 65, not exactly thrilled that the new GM decides that a 2023-24 window would thrill a fan like me. And that I get to watch another tear down and attempted rebuild. Good heavens, take a shot at one of the two 19-year olds and give me a couple of other guys who are decent break out candidates. I've given up on watching the NFL and the NBA (excuse me while I vomit) and my interest in baseball may not make that 4 year window, which you all know will shortly turn into a 5 or 6 year window -- they just have a way of becoming a mirage.