OnlyBucs

It would also appear that position players are a lot more reliable so far as panning out. I like the idea of the catcher if he seems in or near that top five.

The latest MLB Draft projection has Henry Davis,the catcher, moving up to the fourth selection. Who knows by the time draft day happens he may be projected as #1. The two high school shortstops are now projected to go #1 and #2 in the draft.

7C70712A232A222F28372D1A0 wrote: The latest MLB Draft projection has Henry Davis,the catcher, moving up to the fourth selection. Who knows by the time draft day happens he may be projected as #1. The two high school shortstops are now projected to go #1 and #2 in the draft.


if they pick a high school shortstop, he needs to be somebody they think can be a good player by beginning of 2024 season. That is a fast track for a high school player.



Unless they are sure a high school player is going to be a star, I prefer a college pick.

2C20217A737A727F78677D4A0 wrote: The latest MLB Draft projection has Henry Davis,the catcher, moving up to the fourth selection. Who knows by the time draft day happens he may be projected as #1. The two high school shortstops are now projected to go #1 and #2 in the draft.
I think it’s K Law that now has Davis ranked #1. But I’ve also read that some think Davis should be moved from C to a corner position (3B or RF because of his arm) to get his bat to MLB faster and to keep it in the lineup more.



With Hayes at 3B and O Cruz probably headed for RF, does that change the thinking of those advocating for Davis at all? If he’s not at a position of need for us, is he still your preference at 1-1 just as the best college bat?



One more thing to consider. Look at his Fri and Sat lines from this season. Those are the games where he’s facing the best P’s. His numbers are good, but he’s not dominating. I was a proponent for Will Craig, but was concerned about the same pattern in his college lines. I’m no scout. Hopefully the pundits making the rankings are seeing in Davis enough hit tool to rank him where they are. But it is worrying to me that he’s not had more (any?) big games against top college pitchers.

I would still go with Leiter at #1, we have enough middle fielder prospects. Davis is too questionable in my mind to go #1.



Leiter can be that #1 or #2 starter they desperately need.

697E685F4949452A0 wrote: The latest MLB Draft projection has Henry Davis,the catcher, moving up to the fourth selection. Who knows by the time draft day happens he may be projected as #1. The two high school shortstops are now projected to go #1 and #2 in the draft.
I think it’s K Law that now has Davis ranked #1. But I’ve also read that some think Davis should be moved from C to a corner position (3B or RF because of his arm) to get his bat to MLB faster and to keep it in the lineup more. 



With Hayes at 3B and O Cruz probably headed for RF, does that change the thinking of those advocating for Davis at all?  If he’s not at a position of need for us, is he still your preference at 1-1 just as the best college bat?



One more thing to consider. Look at his Fri and Sat lines from this season.  Those are the games where he’s facing the best P’s.  His numbers are good, but he’s not dominating. I was a proponent for Will Craig, but was concerned about the same pattern in his college lines. I’m no scout. Hopefully the pundits making the rankings are seeing in Davis enough hit tool to rank him where they are. But it is worrying to me that he’s not had more (any?) big games against top college pitchers.


Everything I'm aware of has Davis as a C in the MLB. His arm is a cannon behind the plate. Easier to find a 3rd base or OF than a catcher. I've also heard that his defense behind the plate is improving a lot this year.



I've seen him play two games on the ACC Network. A homer in both games, including a grandslam against Duke (don't know if Duke is any good or not).



If he is not projected as a catcher, than that would impact my thoughts. I gotta believe he will stick.



In 2016 the Pirates picked Will Craig in the 1st round. I wish they had picked Will Smith, another catcher from Louisville, instead of Smith falling to the Dodgers. A catcher verses 1st base....that bat better be good at 1st base. Catcher has a lot more room IMHO.

Rocker and Leiter were virtually identical in their starts against Kentucky



Rocker on Thursday:

7 IP, 3H, 2R, 2BB, 11K No decision Vanderbilt 4-2 over UK



Leiter on Friday

6 IP, 3H, 2R, 2BB, 8K No decision Vanderbilt 8-2 over UK



Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs

I still favor Rocker

[gh author=7B5E5D5D48635E565443310 link=1617808547/76#76 date=1621671342]Rocker and Leiter were virtually identical in their starts against Kentucky.......



Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs........


Seriously. I think Bobster said it would almost be better picking 3rd or so - one would fall into our lap.



I’m trying to think like a GM for the Pirates. I’ve really intrigued by Lawlar but the Pirates need a player before Lawlar would be available. And a HS player is ultimately riskier. The pitchers seem obvious, but it’s clear they have “come back to the pack” a bit. I would love to have a true #1, somebody that can dominate a wildcard game. But our track record is pretty bad. Even Cole - we got about one really outstanding season. As much as I want that dominate #1, I don’t have confidence in pitchers.



If Davis does indeed pull into that very top of the list, then I think he has to be #1 - the thing I would be watching is how far along he is in truly managing the staff. If he can do that, given the younger pitchers this staff will have, I can’t think of a better option for the Pirates.



But I get the temptation of a pitcher.



One thing I do know - the Pirates must not wiff on another 1st round.

2B2C3A323C2B6C60193E34383035773A3634590 wrote: [gh author=7B5E5D5D48635E565443310 link=1617808547/76#76 date=1621671342]Rocker and Leiter were virtually identical in their starts against Kentucky.......



Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs........


Seriously.  I think Bobster said it would almost be better picking 3rd or so - one would fall into our lap. 



I’m trying to think like a GM for the Pirates.  I’ve really intrigued by Lawlar but the Pirates need a player before Lawlar would be available.  And a HS player is ultimately riskier.  The pitchers seem obvious, but it’s clear they have “come back to the pack” a bit.  I would love to have a true #1, somebody that can dominate a wildcard game.  But our track record is pretty bad.  Even Cole - we got about one really outstanding season.   As much as I want that dominate #1, I don’t have confidence in pitchers.



If Davis does indeed pull into that very top of the list, then I think he has to be #1 - the thing I would be watching is how far along he is in truly managing the staff.   If he can do that, given the younger pitchers this staff will have, I can’t think of a better option for the Pirates.



But I get the temptation of a pitcher. 



One thing I do know - the Pirates must not wiff on another 1st round.   




If the evaluations are close then go with the catcher. In hindsight the Bucs should have taken Posey rather than Pedro (of course the Rays should have too).

686F79717F682F235A7D777B7376347975771A0 wrote: Rocker and Leiter were virtually identical in their starts against Kentucky.......



Gonna be a tough decision for the Bucs........


Seriously.  I think Bobster said it would almost be better picking 3rd or so - one would fall into our lap. 



I’m trying to think like a GM for the Pirates.  I’ve really intrigued by Lawlar but the Pirates need a player before Lawlar would be available.  And a HS player is ultimately riskier.  The pitchers seem obvious, but it’s clear they have “come back to the pack” a bit.  I would love to have a true #1, somebody that can dominate a wildcard game.  But our track record is pretty bad.  Even Cole - we got about one really outstanding season.   As much as I want that dominate #1, I don’t have confidence in pitchers.



If Davis does indeed pull into that very top of the list, then I think he has to be #1 - the thing I would be watching is how far along he is in truly managing the staff.   If he can do that, given the younger pitchers this staff will have, I can’t think of a better option for the Pirates.



But I get the temptation of a pitcher. 



One thing I do know - the Pirates must not wiff on another 1st round.   


The problem with drafting pitchers is that because of the FA system you can pick the right guy and still essentially whiff on your #1 pick. Very few pitchers dominate as rookies. Even the best take several years to reach their ceiling. But free agency kicks in after 6 years and if you don't want the player to walk while receiving nothing in exchange, you have to deal him with 1-2 years of control left. So the window of having them at their best is very small. Two examples:



Gerrit Cole-Pirates waited until June to bring him up in 2013 so it didn't count as a service time year. So he was not a FA until after 2019. He had 2 reasonably good seasons in 2013-14 before having an outstanding one in 2015. Injuries limited his games and his performance in 2015 and he was disappointing in 2016 (12-12, 4.26 ERA). With 2 years of control left he was dealt to get a better return. In service years 5.5 (2017) and 6.5 (2018) he reached his ceiling with Houston and then walked as a FA. The Pirates suffered thru his growing pains and injuries and got 1 truly good year from him in 4.5 seasons before the window closed before there would not have been enough control to make it worth Houston's time to give up much for him. And even then, the return on the trade was not great.



Stephen Strasburg-Nats waited until June in rookie year of 2010 to get an extra year of service. So FA would kick in after 2016 season. Before his rookie season was over he needed TJS and then missed most of 2011. Had good but not great seasons after that and then Nats gave him a contract extension in 2016 thru 2019 and then signed him as a FA after 2019 season. This is now his 12th year with them and they've gotten a lot from him but most of that was after the extension and now into free agent years. But if they had not extended him and instead had dealt him before he would walk, his career with the Nats would have been similar to Cole's with the Pirates.



The moral of the story is that if you are going to endure the growing pains and the injuries you better believe you have a good chance to keep the pitcher into his FA years to get the benefit of his best seasons. Otherwise you are only warming him up for some other team to reap the rewards. In Cole, the Astros got and the Yankees are getting what you would expect of the #1 overall draft pick. But in the short window the Pirates had at the beginning of his career, they got little from him. The Nats got little from Strasburg initially but eliminated the small window and held onto him and won a WS in which he was MVP several years after he could have left as a FA but didn't.



The Pirates can't afford to take a pitcher and spend his short period with them training him to excel for his next team. That's not much better than whiffing altogether on the pick.