OnlyBucs

I think a lot of the commentary on the Pirates gets way too over the top. I just remembered something about that 2015 98 win team, they were a .500 team against the divison, and something like an .800 team against the rest of the league. And the Reds/Brewers were bad and they still beat the Pirates a lot. That seemed to indicate to me that the Pirate's advantages were eroding and teams with the most familiarity with them were able to handle them. The FO didn't pick up on that, and instead doubled down. The pitching staff cratered and McCutchen's down year sank the offense. They started off 2016 very strong, they had already doubled down on the current squad in the offseason by doing nothing, and then furthered that by signing Cervelli and Polanco to deals after strong starts to the season.



Point being, the FO blew it big time. NH was able to build it up once, hopefully he can do it again, but it will be much harder without inheriting an MVP candidate. I think NH is capable of adapting and learning from past mistakes.

013C222F202A21032B3C2D2B2A4E0 wrote: I think a lot of the commentary on the Pirates gets way too over the top. I just remembered something about that 2015 98 win team, they were a .500 team against the divison, and something like an .800 team against the rest of the league. And the Reds/Brewers were bad and they still beat the Pirates a lot. That seemed to indicate to me that the Pirate's advantages were eroding and teams with the most familiarity with them were able to handle them. The FO didn't pick up on that, and instead doubled down. The pitching staff cratered and McCutchen's down year sank the offense. They started off 2016 very strong, they had already doubled down on the current squad in the offseason by doing nothing, and then furthered that by signing Cervelli and Polanco to deals after strong starts to the season.



Point being, the FO blew it big time. NH was able to build it up once, hopefully he can do it again, but it will be much harder without inheriting an MVP candidate. I think NH is capable of adapting and learning from past mistakes.
Even if he builds them up again, will they change their approach to sustain a good team? They followed up on 98 wins by trading Walker for Niese and going the cheap route with Vogelsong and Jaso instead of raising one of MLB's smallest payrolls to add legit talent to challenge the Cubs and Cards. If Nutting remains unwilling to bump up payroll "when the time is right," then NH will always be limited in getting the team just so far before having to tear it down and start over again.

4F485E56584F08047D5A505C5451135E52503D0 wrote:



How much of it is failure of players vs. failure of development?  Certainly most falls on players after they get to the big leagues.




No. No, it doesn't. You're confusing two different things here.



The organization is responsible for the number of wins and losses that the teams accumulates each season. That number of wins is determined by the collection of players that are placed on the roster by the front office.



An organization should decide whether a player lived up to their expectations or was worth the value of the contract they paid him, and use that information to help them determine their personnel decisions and strategies for the future.



But holding the players responsible for how many games the team wins makes no sense. Each player can only perform to their capabilities. It's up to the front office to determine those capabilities and which of those players are likely to reach them.



So when I read comments like this:



To make the current situation the Pirates find themselves in right now only the FO's fault is too myopic and dualistic.  The issue lies as much on the hands of the players on the field radically underperforming.


it makes me laugh. Myopic? The irony that the person using the word myopic doesn't realize how myopic his comment is.



Here's what PMike is saying:



-The front office builds the team.



-If the results are good, like from 2013-2015, then the front office did a great job.



-If the results are bad, like every other year, then the front office still did a great job and the players failed.



Anybody else see how this makes no sense on any level?



Myopic.


Thanks for telling me what I meant to say.  Quite a gift you have.



Let me get this straight.  I made an argument suggesting that every ounce of blame doesn't lie simply on management.  I suggested that perhaps the significant decrease in performance from a few key contributors was also part of the problem.  To be clear, I did not say that it was the entire problem.  In fact, I said "the FO is receiving and deserving of ridicule."



Or course, in your analysis of my words, you naturally made a series of conclusions that I in no way, shape, or form said or suggested.  Then you continue (this time in a mocking way) to put all blame on the FO discrediting my point with no real data.



Well done.  You totally got it.



Myopic - lacking imagination, foresight, or intellectual insight.
I took your post to mean 50-50 split between management and players.   Because of use of phrase: just as much


Fair enough.  Thanks for that.  I wouldn't dare to offer a number.  It just seems that this board has turned into an all or nothing rampage against the FO.  They certainly deserve it, but there's also other blame to pass around.  Plus, I get bored at reading the same venom against the FO all of the time.


PMike, your point is taken, players seriously underpreformed and or screwed up last year.  But it’s part of the GMs job.  Neal got over preformance 2013-2015.  It cuts both ways. It seems to me that if your dealing with the fringes the way the Pirates do then you get more risk.  Probably more failure.



But whether players under or over preform, the GM can be viewed in his over all execution of “the plan”.  they bring in Happ who is outstanding for the few months he’s a Pirate, but they won’t pull a trigger on him for 2016 due to “internal valuation”. They settle for Vogolsong. They sign Lariano and all’s good as long as he over preforms, but if he slips below average they have to dump him at any costs.



It’s hard to even get behind the management long enough to even consider player preformance when this is the way they manage.



Say it another way, how do you even focus on the team when management feels like a poorly played pinball?  I’m being serious. What Do you make of this offseason?  I’d love to hear some real baseball talk but they give us nothing to talk about because they seem utterly rudderless.  What are your thoughts about 2018. I bet you have to think pretty hard for an answer that doesn’t involve the FO.  But maybe I’m wrong.    




I think there is a ton of blame to go around over the last two years.



To your point about wanting real baseball talk, I'm all game. I'll admit, I have generally refrained from writing anything that may be construed as slightly positive because, predictably, someone will come along and intentionally reinterpret your words in an all or nothing affirmation of the FO. It's like we are discouraging critical thinking and seeking mindless dummies to line up for an all out assault on the FO. Personally, that way of thinking or discussion has no interest to me.



I have lots of thoughts about the FO, the team of the last 8 years, the current team, and this offseason. I'm just not sure it's worth saying right now because it seems people still need to grieve/blow off steam about the current situation.

I also have a lot of thoughts about that state of the organization, some negative, some angry, and some hopeful.



I'm irritated that their analytic group totally missed that their pitch to contact, ground ball strategy was going to blow up when the umps had to contract the strike zone. And also that the organization totally missed on the new fly ball era. Their pitching staff was completely ill served in how to compete against that approach (see Gerrit Cole's HR allowed total).



They were also supposed to be on the cutting edge of optimizing player's health an on field performance by strategic off days and monitoring player fatigue levels. That's obviously not the case, it was simply that they had Russel Martin on the team at the right time in his career.



I think the drafting complaints are completely off base, the hit rate for a late first round MLB draft pick is probably more like 25% while folks seem to think it's over 50%. 2012 was the only recent bust draft, as there are prospects in the system from 2014 on. (Tucker, Keller, Newman, Hayes, Kramer, Craig, Alemais, Ogle). But there are player evaluation problems, they clearly missed that Glasnow and Meadows had higher trade values than MLB production values.



But overall, I think the system is deep with some high ceiling talent. There are potential breakout prospects in the lower levels, and a strong collection of guys at the higher levels that could step in and fill MLB roles. They have no truly burdensome contracts and a strong collection of controllable MLB assets.

5C617F727D777C5E7661707677130 wrote: I also have a lot of thoughts about that state of the organization, some negative, some angry, and some hopeful.



I'm irritated that their analytic group totally missed that their pitch to contact, ground ball strategy was going to blow up when the umps had to contract the strike zone. And also that the organization totally missed on the new fly ball era. Their pitching staff was completely ill served in how to compete against that approach (see Gerrit Cole's HR allowed total).



They were also supposed to be on the cutting edge of optimizing player's health an on field performance by strategic off days and monitoring player fatigue levels. That's obviously not the case, it was simply that they had Russel Martin on the team at the right time in his career.



I think the drafting complaints are completely off base, the hit rate for a late first round MLB draft pick is probably more like 25% while folks seem to think it's over 50%. 2012 was the only recent bust draft, as there are prospects in the system from 2014 on. (Tucker, Keller, Newman, Hayes, Kramer, Craig, Alemais, Ogle). But there are player evaluation problems, they clearly missed that Glasnow and Meadows had higher trade values than MLB production values.



But overall, I think the system is deep with some high ceiling talent. There are potential breakout prospects in the lower levels, and a strong collection of guys at the higher levels that could step in and fill MLB roles. They have no truly burdensome contracts and a strong collection of controllable MLB assets.


Yes! Thanks for writing this! I had written a much longer post above, but deleted it.



The payroll is what it is. Signing FAs isn't going to happen. That said, the FO has to be good in other areas and they aren't. It seems like the only thing they really nailed was the shifting thing and everyone has caught up now.



Player development is a serious problem. I agree that they have botched this with a movement away from power. However, their whole "fastball academy" doesn't seem to have worked out well. How many prep players never made it? How did a guy like Glasnow go through the "fastball academy" and still struggle as much as he does (especially mentally)? I'm a bit more skeptical on their drafting too.



I think they have royally failed in Latin America. Of course, you can fix this, but they have largely been devoid of any impact players from there.



And the problem with sucking in player development, drafting, and Latin America is money. Those things are really cheap (relatively) to invest in. I get that Nutting won't allow NH to spend over $100 million on payroll. But invest in player development and Latin America to make up for it!

I also have a lot of thoughts about that state of the organization, some negative, some angry, and some hopeful.



I'm irritated that their analytic group totally missed that their pitch to contact, ground ball strategy was going to blow up when the umps had to contract the strike zone. And also that the organization totally missed on the new fly ball era. Their pitching staff was completely ill served in how to compete against that approach (see Gerrit Cole's HR allowed total).



They were also supposed to be on the cutting edge of optimizing player's health an on field performance by strategic off days and monitoring player fatigue levels. That's obviously not the case, it was simply that they had Russel Martin on the team at the right time in his career.



I think the drafting complaints are completely off base, the hit rate for a late first round MLB draft pick is probably more like 25% while folks seem to think it's over 50%. 2012 was the only recent bust draft, as there are prospects in the system from 2014 on. (Tucker, Keller, Newman, Hayes, Kramer, Craig, Alemais, Ogle). But there are player evaluation problems, they clearly missed that Glasnow and Meadows had higher trade values than MLB production values.



[highlight]But overall, I think the system is deep with some high ceiling talent. There are potential breakout prospects in the lower levels, and a strong collection of guys at the higher levels that could step in and fill MLB roles. They have no truly burdensome contracts and a strong collection of controllable MLB assets.[[/highlight]/quote]



Highlighted what I think is a good point, I believe the system is deep and hope you are correct about the high ceiling talent as that is what I think the team lacks (I expect the ceiling for Kramer and Newman is Jack Wilson and give Craig this year to show he is a prospect)

I think Keller and Baz are high ceiling pitching prospects, and while technically not a prospect anymore, Glasnow is likely on track to being a high value reliever (Andrew Miller ceiling).



Meadows and Tucker are high ceiling guys at the upper level, and the 2017 GCL squad was stacked with potential breakout guys.

Part of my problem, I readily admit, is I have “prospect fatigue”. After so many years of it with such “mah” results I’ve tuned out the system. I’ve not voted in the OBN prospect poll. That’s equivalent to me assuming the system is very poor right now, no real hope in the system.



If there are real prospects in the pipeline, that would be encouraging. I’m still a believer that Neal needs to either build

This team or blow it up. Doing nothing is hard to sit though.



I feel like the plan to build around Marte and Polanco is really bad. I’m convinced they are not the player we all believed in PLUS I think Marte is a poor influence in the club house.



The 2013-2015 teams had the convergence of both surprising talent and grit. Youth with the exactky right veteran. Guys like Marte and Polanco know nothing about Grit. As soon as JHay is traded there will be no one on this team that could even understand AJ or Russ.



Neal should do the one thing he did really well: work with a young cheap team and build it into a quality team through a few vets that can lead the young guys.



But this hope depends on a strong farm. I’ve taken for granted the system was weak. I hope I’m wrong and you guys are correct.

The plan to build around Marte and Polanco was really bad. It failed, and that's why they chose to sell short term assets as opposed to add this off season. I'm of the opinion that their course this off season was based on the lack of confidence in those two as franchise pillars. I don't think either of them are worth anything on the market at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Marte shopped during the season if he has a rebound year. I'm not sure what happens with Polanco, but his long term commitment is now a liability, unless he shows some consistency in 2018 and going forward.

5A6779747B717A587067767071150 wrote: The plan to build around Marte and Polanco was really bad. It failed, and that's why they chose to sell short term assets as opposed to add this off season. I'm of the opinion that their course this off season was based on the lack of confidence in those two as franchise pillars. I don't think either of them are worth anything on the market at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Marte shopped during the season if he has a rebound year. I'm not sure what happens with Polanco, but his long term commitment is now a liability, unless he shows some consistency in 2018 and going forward.


Yeah, of all the things that went wrong with this team, those two guys maybe the biggest. And you may be correct - no value left. The lack of residual value from players they places such high interval value is absolutely killing this organization.