OnlyBucs

Got a fair amount of offense last night from a terrible 6-7-8 of the order.  Frazier on fire again at the top of the order. Even when Marte, Dickerson, and Bell wake up, it's not going to change run output much, because 6-7-8 will go to sleep etc..  that's the way it goes.   



4.25 R/G so far.  we were at 5.00 R/G  through April last year 4.30 for the season.   Get used to it guys.  This is just about what the offense is.  It's up to the pitching and defense to make the difference. I'm hoping to get up to the 4.5 R/G range for the season, but that's all it is. Hope.   



We've allowed 4.0 R/G so far.  Last year in April we allowed. 4.25 R/G



Based on runs and runs allowed, we're basically where we are going to be.  Decent, not great, not terrible. 



Bad luck.  Questionable managing so far.   when the bullpen tightens up, the starters will start blowing games early.   Ebbs and flows of having an average team.

6D6A7C747A6D2A265F78727E7673317C70721F0 wrote: They will play 162 games.  They have played four.  There is no way to draw any long term conclusions about this team right now.  The knee jerk reaction of fans in baseball...  It's football mentality in baseball.



The hitting is bad, but they have had 2 guys (Shuck & Reyes) getting big at bats that won't even be on the MLB roster next month.  When Polanco and Chisenhall get back, those two won't be getting important at bats.  It sucks they are here now, but they are literally the 3rd and 4 options.  Plus, they have played a strangely high amount because of issues with Marte/Dickerson and the extra innings.  Those things even out beyond four games.



The bullpen has been a dumpster fire so far.  To suggest that this will be what happens all year is foolishness.  It may, but it is unlikely.  It seems like people want to blame Hurdle for the bullpen uses in these last two losses.  I see that.  You can always second guess.  But the reality is, these guys in the bullpen have a job to do.  Many of them have proven they can successfully do it.  Rodriguez and Kela were the two that really cost them these last two games.  Last year, they were both fantastic.  I suspect they will come around and return to that form.



These two games have sucked.  They have been incredible frustrating to watch and I have felt like I wasted my time watching them.  And, these 4 games count as 2.5% of the season.  To draw sweeping generalizations about the whole season from 2.5% of the games seems irresponsible.
No one should draw a conclusion on Gonzalez, Reyes, Kang, Newman, Moran, Burdi, Brault, Kingham, and I haven't.  However it's, pretty obvious with Hurdle we've watched him for years nothing going to change for the better.   Bell he was awful an entire year last year while batting 4th most of the year.  Some of the older players like Cervelli, Archer have to be re-evaluated constantly as they could be declining like we all do with age.  However it's, pretty obvious our manager is a dinosaur we've watched him for years and nothings going to change with him.  Josh Bell he was awful an entire year last year while batting 4th most of the year, and I see no signs of a resurgence in fact quite the opposite, he is not getting good swings on anything.  I saw a very good sign from Moran last night when he almost  came out of his shoes swinging at the only pitch he got that was hit-able, I would replace Bell with Moran immediately.  Liriano, Cabrera, Shuck are taking up slots I would rather see younger players, especially Jason Martin for Cabrera, Polanco should replace Shuck, Liriano is just awful how much more do we need to see of that guy. 



What seems to be lost here is we just lost 2 games that you can never get back that were very winnable with a manager who understands his team and players.  Yes the players didn't perform, but the manager has to put them in the best position to win and that didn't happen the last 2 games.  We've seen this show before, and I'm tired of watching game after game  hoping for a different result.   It's called insanity folks.


The reality is we've lost 3 games in the late innings.  That's an almost crazy stat at this point.



Bell is a major concern.  I suspect he is pressing big time and not handling the pressure.  The 4-spot was a terrible decision because of the pressure. 



Maybe Moran is a real first baseman and can take over in due time.  But what I see is another high-end prospect that the Pirates are going to get next to zero value out of and who will probably turn it around with another organization.  The Pirates can't afford to make a mistake with Bell.
I wouldn't give up on him just yet he's to young but if possible he needs to be sent down and work on straightening out that swing. A clean up hitter has to let it go. His other issue is his fielding is bad. Not sure there's anyway to salvage him. He might be a good DH in American league if he gets his swing corrected, and fetch a decent return.

Moran should have been playing 1b last year instead of us wasting time with Cervelli there.   If they cannot see in a very short amount of time that Moran is unplayable at 3b, these scouts are in the wrong business.



Frankly, I don't believe for a second that any scout or special assistant scouting him prior to the Cole trade thought Moran could stick at 3b even if the power developed.   It's too glaringly obvious.  You can tell by his stat sheet that Houston was monkeying around with him at 1b in the minors already. 



Everybody knew.  They knew.  We knew.  They just don't tell us the truth because if they tell us he's a very likely 1bman with very, very questionable power, "?" defense at 1b, and about a .760-.780 OPS ceiling, everyone knows he has no real value in that trade.  That's a trade throw-in.  A long-shot maybe, not a valuable piece of the Cole return.   BUT if you talk about that same hitting tool as a 3bman who fields OK? well you just may have something. 



We knew the whole time.  Just like they know Bell is a longshot to make it as a good starter too, at this point.  We're not re-inventing some profound new thing here.  It's just baseball.  These guys have major issues with their skillsets,  and they're not young, minor leaguers.      



 

I never saw Bell play the OF in the minors. Exactly how bad of an outfielder is he?



While it likely would be a bit extreme in playing with his head, with Dickerson now out and the Bucs needing offense, the Bucs need to find someway to get some more hitting in the line-up.



Could Moran help at first and have Bell be a statue in RF?



Could the Bucs return Frazier to the OF and have Kramer take over at 2nd?



Geez, could Kang play 2nd and have Moran at 3rd (I shudder at this defensive alignment)?



It is not fair to expect any team to have an all-star ready to step in when you lose 3 outfielders, and 2 of those in the last 2 weeks, but the Bucs need to find a spark. Perhaps Martin is a reasonable option (hoping so), but desperate times call for desperate actions.

I think much of Bell's problems are between his ears. I read today that he's trying to get better at 1B and still has to remember to use a different throwing motion than when he played OF. How could that not be second nature after over 2,500 innings at 1B? Every outfielder plays catch at some time and uses a different motion than if they were far from the target. Seems like he's really overthinking his throws. It certainly looks that way when you watch him try to throw to 2B. And while he's capable of a good, powerful swing, he too often swings awkwardly as if he's afraid of missing the ball and would rather just make contact and tap it weakly for an out than take a chance of getting a swinging strike.

Here's the scenario:

1st and 3rd.   1 out 9th inning. Tie game.

League average runner hits a hard grounder to Bell.



If that play happens 10 times.   how many times out of 10 do we get the DP to end the inning?



And what would be a normal league turn rate, out of 10?