fjk090852-7 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 4:52 pm
JollyRoger8 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:57 pm
I’m still baffled by the Pirates declining to resign Chapman.
The Red Sox are paying him basically the same salary. At the time I thought they were going to use the savings from Chapman and from DeLa Cruz and put that money towards a significant upgrade at 1B or OF. Then I thought that they may be anticipating a significant increase in arbitration awards. Neither of those scenarios have happened. In fact the payroll is currently lower than last year and most of the high priced free agents have signed. Not bringing back the dominating LH Chapman was a mistake if the team was serious about contending. Maybe it was Chapman that did not want to return; but I didn’t even hear or read that the Pirates even made an offer. Ferguson is no Chapman, I don’t know too much about the Marlin pitcher that was added to the roster. I feel that the Pirates have done a poor job in providing risk reduction if Bednar does not return to 2023 form.
I think the big reason that Chapman was not signed for 2025 was due to budget. Last offseason the FO spent in the 30 million dollar range for free agents, but so far this year they have spent approximately 8 million dollars. I feel that Bob N. gave Ben C a smaller free agent budget since Keller’s contract kicks in this season as well as IKF is on the roster this year. My guess is,if they can get a corner outfielder signed it will be in the 8 to 12 million dollar range meaning they will spend about 20 million dollars in free agent money this offseason. After that player is signed, they may sign a couple pitchers who remain on the free agent list to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training.
Here's my post about the Pirates budget from Dec 7th (I'll update the actual numbers we now know for the guys who aren't going to arbitration):
The Pirates have shed 43.55 in payroll from free agents or guys who were on contracts exceeding league minimum, and are no longer on the roster. (Gonzales, Perez, Chapman, McCutchen, Grandal, Borucki, Joe, Olivares, Brubaker, Taylor, Tellez). Keller is getting approximately a 9.5 million bump, Reynolds is getting a 2 million bump, a full season of IKF they're on the tag for approximately 6.3 million, projected 1.5 million bump on Bednar, projected 1.7 bump on Falter, projected 800K bump on Bart, and about another 1.5 million bump combined with Santana, Holderman, and Oviedo. That adds up to me as a savings of 20.25 million already, and when you consider that's with the projected top end arbitration bump, it's likely to be even more.
One other thing to look at, Ke'Bryan Hayes went DOWN from 10 million in 2023 to 7 million in 2024, and stays at 7 million thrugh 2027, 8 million for 28 and 29, then a 12 million club option with a 6 million buyout in 30. Which means Hayes contract is probably now starting to look attractive for a light hitting/gold glove caliber third baseman when you consider inflation in salaries in MLB. He's fast NOT becoming a white elephant.
My ticket increase was 5.7 percent this year, across the board I have no idea what ticket prices went up this season for the Pirates. But even a modest estimate of 5 percent has to increase revenue, because I'm speculating they will increase in attendance. They increased last season from 2023 by almost 90,000. That's about 1.5 million in gate receipts without doing anything more than just changing the price. Any attendance increase is more gravy on the potatoes, over 3 million with just 100,000 increase. Easily the Pirates are looking at a gate revenue increase of probably well over 5 million this season.
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So here's the update from that post:
The bump on Bednar was 1.39 The bump on Falter was 1.467 The bump on Bart was .98 The bump on Holderman was .745 That totals 4.582 million for them. If Santana wins his case, it's a 1.36 bump If Oviedo wins his case, it's a .385 bump for another increase in salary of 1.745 should the Pirates lose both cases, and adding in the guys that signed, their total maximum increase in salary towards all the arbitration eligible guys comes to 6.327 million. So, I was off by 827K on the projections, and if the Pirates win both case, it's spot on practically. So that 20.25 savings is now reduced 827K to 19.423 million. Now, subtract Cutch's 5 million, and Ferguson's 3 million, the Pirates are still 11.423 million below what they spent last season. Keep in mind what I said about ticket price increase, and a likely bump in attendance. That's a very modest figure, as well as the reduction in discounts to STH's, which is impossible to estimate, but what ever it comes to, it's money FOR the Pirates.
Just by the greater value of the contracts lost minus the value of the increase of arb eligible and free agent signing, as well as ticket revenue increase, the Pirates have easily saved close to 20 million dollars from what they paid last season.
I wonder, if they were to actually spend another 20 million dollars, what that could mean for the 2025 team, and BOB not having spent one dollar more than last season? It's mind boggling to think that they could have had Treinen, they could have had Hoffman, they could have brought Chapman back, and really shored up the bullpen. They could have paid for Bellinger, and kept Ortiz.
And this is all public information.