557372657363100 wrote: Question about the hightlighted sentence below, maybe NH is not being asked to win championships by the owner (or if he is there are objectives that are much more important).
What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut. One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs.
Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:
There are 3 tiers
1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts. These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts. However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost. A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.
2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road. In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much. They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract.
For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.
3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation. Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc. The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.
The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project. Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years). They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors. On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.
They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away. Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic. The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank.
Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen. We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked. Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well. The farm needs constant stocking. Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.
It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this. EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula.
.........
Actually, maybe you're correct. There is a lot of evidence that the main objective is to avoid up and down cycles, remaining competitive year after year. I can believe Neal when he says "just get into the playoffs as many times as possible and see what happens." I don't generally agree with that as an "all or nothing" proposition, but I can understand.
For Nutting, if probably looks like the best business model.
The problem is, it appears, maintaining a competitive level year after year is proving to be unrealistic.
NLC is just waiting for someone to step up and take it. Assuming the pirates don't take it, we're now out of the playoffs two straight years. What makes anyone thing next year will be different?
So, whether the goal is to win or just remain competitive, we seem to be arriving at the same place: we're failing. However, if the goal was to win, and a couple moves had been made, the Pirates might have a WS right now.