Rule 5 Draft Will Present Difficult Choices for Pirates

[BellevueBuc]

4E646F5F687E7E721D0 wrote: 14 members of our 2022 40-man roster will not break camp with the Pirates. Who are they, and where will they play?



I’m placing two highly regarded prospects at AA Altoona. Right-handed pitcher Tahnaj Thomas is eligible and frankly is probably not ready for AA, but he’ll be force fed because he’s out of options. Shortstop prospect Lioner Peguero is a much easier call. He has nothing left to prove at High-A.



I have a dozen prospects starting at AAA Indianapolis, including 6 pitchers and 6 position players. Unlike the recently completed 2021 season, I think that the AAA rotation will feature 4 legitimate prospects: Roansy Contreras, Max Kranick, lefty Omar Cruz, and Luis Oviedo, who no longer needs to be kept on the MLB roster. I believe that Yerry De Los Santos will join Blake Cederlind as hard throwing righty relief prospects.



Mason Martin will man 1B. Tucupita Marcano may move around, but will nominally be the starting 2nd baseman. That should move Rodolfo Castro over to 3rd most games, Shortstop may be split between Oneil Cruz and Diego Castillo, though someone among the prospects I mention could break camp with the Pirates, and Cruz will be considered. The Pirates will probably only be able to protect two of its Rule 5 eligible outfielders. I’ll bet on Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba, dropping Jared Oliva from the roster and exposing highly regarded Calvin Mitchell to the draft.



If you’re counting, you’ll realize that I’ve listed 15 players. Cederlind and Swaggerty both ended 2021 on the 60-day DL. They’ll have to come off before the Rule 5. The Pirates may forgo signing any MLB FA’s until the 60-day resumes in the Spring, thereby fitting the final pieces of their 40-man puzzle.



I have 23 of the 26 MLB roster spote taken, allowing for a #2 catcher while praying for a starting pitcher and help in the OF.


Swaggerty was on the minor league 60 day IL, he is not on the Pirates 40 man roster yet.



Roster Resource has moved guys up a level, so not 100% right but has information that could be helpful depth chart wise.



I doubt they sign any major league free agents until a new CBA is signed. They can sign a backup catcher to a minor league deal. Imagine they do that with some relievers and other reserve roles.



https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resour ... ts/pirates

[SyrBucco]

23040D0D04171404231402610 wrote: 14 members of our 2022 40-man roster will not break camp with the Pirates. Who are they, and where will they play?



I’m placing two highly regarded prospects at AA Altoona. Right-handed pitcher Tahnaj Thomas is eligible and frankly is probably not ready for AA, but he’ll be force fed because he’s out of options. Shortstop prospect Lioner Peguero is a much easier call. He has nothing left to prove at High-A.



I have a dozen prospects starting at AAA Indianapolis, including 6 pitchers and 6 position players. Unlike the recently completed 2021 season, I think that the AAA rotation will feature 4 legitimate prospects: Roansy Contreras, Max Kranick, lefty Omar Cruz, and Luis Oviedo, who no longer needs to be kept on the MLB roster. I believe that Yerry De Los Santos will join Blake Cederlind as hard throwing righty relief prospects.



Mason Martin will man 1B. Tucupita Marcano may move around, but will nominally be the starting 2nd baseman. That should move Rodolfo Castro over to 3rd most games, Shortstop may be split between Oneil Cruz and Diego Castillo, though someone among the prospects I mention could break camp with the Pirates, and Cruz will be considered. The Pirates will probably only be able to protect two of its Rule 5 eligible outfielders. I’ll bet on Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba, dropping Jared Oliva from the roster and exposing highly regarded Calvin Mitchell to the draft.



If you’re counting, you’ll realize that I’ve listed 15 players. Cederlind and Swaggerty both ended 2021 on the 60-day DL. They’ll have to come off before the Rule 5. The Pirates may forgo signing any MLB FA’s until the 60-day resumes in the Spring, thereby fitting the final pieces of their 40-man puzzle.



I have 23 of the 26 MLB roster spote taken, allowing for a #2 catcher while praying for a starting pitcher and help in the OF.


Swaggerty was on the minor league 60 day IL, he is not on the Pirates 40 man roster yet.



Roster Resource has moved guys up a level, so not 100% right but has information that could be helpful depth chart wise.



I doubt they sign any major league free agents until a new CBA is signed.  They can sign a backup catcher to a minor league deal. Imagine they do that with some relievers and other reserve roles.



https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resour ... ts/pirates
Bellevue, thank you so much for posting the list and for correcting Swaggerty's 60-Day status. I've read a lot about Swaggerty having an unlucky season and there appears to be a strong basis for believing he will join the Bucs at some point next season.

I agree completely that we will only sign Minor league FA's until there is a new CBA and I think that the 60-Day will be needed for room.

[SyrBucco]

466C67576076767A150 wrote: Yes, some will say that some of the people I worry about losing would be unwanted by any other franchise, but I don't buy that. Our organizational problem is that we have too many "just barely" MLB-quality players, and we will have to leave some of them unprotected.



Here's a list of the 6 players (with ages) I think we most need to protect who are not currently on the 40-man:

Omar Cruz,23, ranked 26th, probably the most MLB-ready lefty starter in our system

Tahnaj Thomas,21, righty starter currently our 13th ranked prospect

Yerry De Los Santos,23, arguably the top relief prospect not on our 40-man

Mason Martin,21, 17th-ranked prospect, sole 1st base prospect in a power-starved system

Liover Peguero,20, future shortstop and 5th ranked prospect

Travis Swaggerty, 16th-ranked prospect who could help our OF next season if healthy





It was tough leaving some of the following newly-eligible off my list:

Santiago Florez,20, rising righty who I hope is young enough to escape the Rule 5

Eddy Yean,19, bad year so he shouldn't be selected

Diego Castillo,23, probably good enough to be a utility INF right now

Canaan Smith-Njigbe,22, 27th ranked prospect who might help our OF next season

Cal Mitchell,22, 18th-ranked, could also help our OF soon



Tough as these choices were, consider the current 40-man guys I'm letting go. I'm listing 10 pitchers:

Dillon Peters,28, a rare lefty starter who's been decent. Tough choice.

Cody Ponce,27, classic AAAA pitcher

Chase DeJong,27, nice story but no room for him

Trevor Cahill,33, easiest cut of all

Jose Soriano,22, with injury concerns, we have to take a chance

Chasen Shreve,30, free agent but could be resigned once 60-Day returns

Enyel De Los Santos,25, haven't seen enough to know but gets lost in numbers game

Shelby Miller,30, second easiest cut

Connor Overton,28, but I reserve the right to change my mind, as he is my final cut given fine small sample pitching

Kyle Keller,28, amazed that he's still on the roster

Shea Spitzbarth,26, does the most with what he's got but AAAA type



I'm letting go of 7 position players. The list includes 3 guys who are free agents and a couple I wouldn't mind resigning.

Mike Perez,28, good defensive catcher but I think he'll be available as FA if we can't do better

Taylor Davis,31, AAAA catcher

Wilmer Difo,29, good utility man free agent

Phil Evans,28, awful year and too many guys advancing behind him

Jared Oliva,25, might lose him in Rule 5 but we have better choices now at AAA

Ben Gamel,28, free agent I'd like to resign

Yoshi Tsutsugo,29, another free agent I'd like to resign, probably the best power hitter on the team



Here's who is left on the 40-man, with an allowance for 2 FA's:

17 Pitchers in alphabetical order:

Anthony Banda,27

David Bednar,26

Steve Brault,29

JT Brubaker,27

Blake Cederlind,25

Roansy Contreras,21

Wil Crowe,26

Sam Howard,28

Mitch Keller,25

Max Kranick,23

Chad Kuhl,28

Nick Mears,24

Luis Oviedo,21

Chris Stratton,30

Duane Underwood,26

Bryse Wilson,23

Miguel Yajure,22



2 Catchers

Jacob Stallings,31

FA to be acquired,?



8 Infielders:

Colin Moran,28

Cole Tucker,24

Kevin Newman.27

Ke'Bryan Hayes,24

Rodolfo Castro,21

Michael Chavis,25

Oneill Cruz,22

Tucupita Marcano,21



4 Outfielders:

Anthony Alford,26

Bryan Reynolds,26

Hoy Park,25

Resigned FA,?



Some fast math: 17+2+8+4+6=37



Could someone talk me into Overton instead of Underwood? Ask me at season's end.

Do I think Diego Castillo should be protected? Yes.

Do I think we should protect at least one of Njigba-Smith or Mitchell? Yes.

Would I like to resign both Gamel and Tsutsugo? Yes.

Would I like to see us bring Taylor Anderson back to Pittsburgh to be our ace? You betcha.



I'm keeping my dreams small. I'm hoping for improvements by young players. I hope this post wasn't so long and boring that you've quit reading it, but if you've come this far, please tell me what you think.
Learned more about the status of several players and listened to the arguments of fellow posters. Here are some changes.

DFA or trade Anthony Banda. He doesn't have any options.

DFA or trade Duane Underwood. Nothing more fungible than a RHRP.

Keep Dillon Peters. I admit I was on the fence and I've been talked into it.

Keep Chasen Shreve. Thought he was a FA, but he's still arb-eligible.

Same for Ben Gamel. A platoon in LF of Gamel and Alford should be OK.

That's it for now. I'm still under 40 and I've got room for some (cheap) free agents.

[SyrBucco]

One more clarification: I've protected Canaan Njigba-Smith and Diego Castillo. Two spots are open on the 40-man. One will be a catcher.

[UtahPirate]

436962526573737F100 wrote: One more clarification: I've protected Canaan Njigba-Smith and Diego Castillo. Two spots are open on the 40-man. One will be a catcher.


I think Castillo flies a little under-the-radar. It may because his minor league offensive stats prior to this year are pretty ordinary, and then he missed 2020 completely.



But he was very solid in both AA (Yankees and us) and AAA this year with power and OBP up significantly. Seems to have figured out something since 2019. I think we'll want to see what we have.

[fjk090852-7]

5A7B6E675F667D6E7B6A0F0 wrote: One more clarification: I've protected Canaan Njigba-Smith and Diego Castillo. Two spots are open on the 40-man. One will be a catcher.


I think Castillo flies a little under-the-radar. It may because his minor league offensive stats prior to this year are pretty ordinary, and then he missed 2020 completely.



But he was very solid in both AA (Yankees and us) and AAA this year with power and OBP up significantly. Seems to have figured out something since 2019. I think we'll want to see what we have.
I am of the opinion that Castillo will be protected. I could not see the current FO acquiring him in July, and then losing him in the Rule 5 Draft in December. There was a reason when they acquired him for Holmes.

[SCBucco]

Personally, I wonder if BC makes a trade and packages one or two decent prospects that will or could be left off the 40-man roster for a starting arm. I'd see if Detroit would be interested in a deal like this for Fulmer. That would be a nice move to make.

[UtahPirate]

5854550E070E060B0C13093E0 wrote: One more clarification: I've protected Canaan Njigba-Smith and Diego Castillo. Two spots are open on the 40-man. One will be a catcher.


I think Castillo flies a little under-the-radar. It may because his minor league offensive stats prior to this year are pretty ordinary, and then he missed 2020 completely.



But he was very solid in both AA (Yankees and us) and AAA this year with power and OBP up significantly. Seems to have figured out something since 2019. I think we'll want to see what we have.
I am of the opinion that Castillo will be protected. I could not see the current FO acquiring him in July, and then losing him in the Rule 5 Draft in December. There was a reason when they acquired him for Holmes.


BTW, Holmes was very good with the Yankees so they must have seen something we were missing. Not sure what they did with him, but after being a BB machine with us he walked 4 in 28 innings to go with 34 K's and a 5-2 W/L record.

[BellevueBuc]

4A617679000 wrote: And down the thread hijacking rabbit hole we go.

So much for a good group conversation.



I believe I'll just refrain from posting from here on out - no sense trying to get involved in a conversation.


Wonder how many people quit for this reason? I know i posted less when it seemed like everything was just a broken record no matter the topic.

[Bobster21]

63444D4D44575444635442210 wrote: And down the thread hijacking rabbit hole we go.

So much for a good group conversation.



I believe I'll just refrain from posting from here on out - no sense trying to get involved in a conversation.


Wonder how many people quit for this reason?  I know i posted less when it seemed like everything was just a broken record no matter the topic.
We took steps to correct that problem. A certain poster was shown the door.