The next CBA and the future of MLB

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2drfischer@gmail.c

The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

496F687D74786F79711A0 wrote:

Yep.  Meet the new CBA, same as the old CBA.




I disagree. In fact, the owners approving it 30-0 tells me this one is still going to work in their favor.



We already know the owners wised up and quit throwing huge contracts at guys past their primes, the "getting paid for what they did" kind of Pujols contract. Someone finally woke them up, "why am I paying this guy for something he never did, and never will do for me?"



In three seasons, Bryan Reynolds has 10.6 WAR, has been paid league minimum, and entering his first year of arbitration. Had a 6 WAR season last year. Another fellow has 13.3 WAR in those same three seasons, posted a 6.6 WAR last year and was paid $1,714,238. The difference between the two is while Reynolds hits arbitration for the first time, that other fellow signed an extension for 338 million. That fellow is Tatis Jr.



I think with the incentives to play younger players sooner rather than trying to save that year of control due to the bonus pool, we're going to see more younger players hitting FA sooner. Good players. Reynolds types, who (reportedly) turned down extension offers.



What I think a lot of owners are going to realize, including some of the richer teams, that there's really no reason to pay 338 million to a young guy who, though one of the most dynamic players in the game, has already shown that this might be a huge albatross contract ala Pujols, because of his shoulder issues. Right now, Tatis Jr. is an enormous bargain, even with missing 32 games, and being subpar for how many others, especially down the stretch when San Diego faltered to a 2012 Piratesque type of finish?



There are going to be more younger players hitting FA, and a much larger and much more quality pool of them. I think the players thought they were looking out for the top earners, the Scherzers and Coles. They actually inadvertantly did what they supposedly were intending to do, help that mid tier guys get their money. And they will. Except those mid tier guys will be 25, 26, 27 and not 31, 32, 33.



Hope I'm alive to see it happen, but I honestly think this CBA backfired on the players. There are going to be a lot of Reynolds every year in FA classes. When there's one Reynolds, there's a huge 100 million plus contract waiting. When there are 20 Reynolds, then what?



I think this CBA is going to help the small market teams. They won't really be penalized for playing young guys, because if they're ROY types, they'll get paid from a bonus pool, and the fans will enjoy seeing those young phenoms. Sure it will be the same old same old, "enjoy them while they're here" type of thing. But when those guys hit FA with a whole bunch of other phenoms, the FA pool won't be comprised of a few top guys, a few legit bounce back guys, and the rest reclamation projects and dumpster dives. Those are the 30 something guys I think we'll be seeing fewer and fewer of.



I think the new status quo is going to be the only guys getting the massive contracts and still playing well into their 30's are the elite pitchers, and pure designated hitters.



The 10-15 year career journeymen, the mid 30's fading stars? I think their days are numbered. They will be replaced by guys 10 years younger.



When you can take 338 million over ten years and instead of paying one elite 6.6 WAR guy you can pay five 4-6 WAR type players instead, you may not have the sizzle anymore but you'll have the steak.



I think that's why the players wanted a universal DH. It didn't create anymore jobs like some people think. It just created what I think outside of pitching will be the only 300 million dollar contract type players, but I don't think the players realized that. When that FA class has a lot of Reynolds, you keep your Tatis Jr., someone will just get them 2-3 Reynolds instead.



Small market teams will now be able to field their best teams, and I think in a few years the FA market will be higher quality, but more affordable just from the sheer numbers.



2023 Pirates....look out world!!!!




My comment was referencing Bob Nutting's spending. It won't change with this new CBA.



As for the owners spending on younger, quality players instead of the 30-somethings, that's probably a good call, but Nutting still probably won't take part in that. What he got from a young Polanco for the money he paid him will be etched in his mind forever. I can imagine Nutting forcing whoever his GM is to deal away his best players in their third or fourth years to both avoid the higher contracts, even though there will be the bonus pool.



If there will be more younger players eligible for that money, there's less to go around, as you suggest. If other owners are paying more to their younger players, will Nutting feel the pressure to do the same? He might, but he won't care. He sets his own value for players, market be damned.
GreenWeenie
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by GreenWeenie »

I doubt that the CBA has any influence whatsoever with how owners compensate veteran FAs.



Puljos received his money because an owner wanted to make a splash. He made it. That is always going to happen. This year, it's Carlos Correa and Fred Freeman.



We will always see the few "Top Shelves." We'll always see the "Second Tiers." We'll always see "Everybody Elses."



That's not driven by the CBA. It's driven by their own viewpoint as to how much they want to have that player stay with their team or come to it.



I think that this CBA has some intent to limit certain owners who would rather pay down their debt than to pay their players, but not by very much. The new lottery isn't significant enough to prevent teams from deliberately not trying to win. There are a few reasons for it, so I won't list them unless someone wants to get into a discussion about it. I'll just say that the new lottery is a little more than "lip service."



Young players will still continue to be held down. That's not going to change. But, if they should shine after they arrive, they have the chance to be rewarded more for their results. Remember when Cole had to shame one of his past employers into giving him a whopping $10 grand bone after winning 19 games?
GreenWeenie
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by GreenWeenie »

I don't see any trends in players experience changing until trends in championship teams change.



It's held steady for a long time that the average player age for WS champions is in the high 20's.  For every hot shot kid, there are probably two veterans.  It was true for the Braves.  It was true for the Dodgers, and it was true for the Astros, who were thought to be such a young team.



We'll still see teams like the Pirates who believe in the Quioxte-style roster turnover of younger players.  We'll still see teams willing to keep some players and attract more experienced players.  This CBA won't change that.
Surgnbuck
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by Surgnbuck »

4A7F6868635A68686364680D0 wrote: I don't see any trends in players experience changing until trends in championship teams change.



It's held steady for a long time that the average player age for WS champions is in the high 20's.  For every hot shot kid, there are probably two veterans.  It was true for the Braves.  It was true for the Dodgers, and it was true for the Astros, who were thought to be such a young team.



We'll still see teams like the Pirates who believe in the Quioxte-style roster turnover of younger players.  We'll still see teams willing to keep some players and attract more experienced players.  This CBA won't change that.
I completely disagree with you. And the lottery system is more than just lip service. I don't even think you guys get what I was saying. The players GOT what they wanted most, players hitting free agency sooner. A lot more of them, simply by incentivizing playing the younger players rather than holding them down "until the time is right". It's a win win for the owners. They now play those guys, and if they're all that, they get paid with the help of 29 other guys.



More younger guys will be FA's than before. The FA pool is eventually going to be younger, and better. Your premise "every WS team has that 'aging' vet guy" might still happen, but more than likely you'll see it less often, and if that guy is older, he's still one of those who is still pretty dang good, and not there for the supposed veterany presence.



It's going to take a couple of years. You mentioned Pujols....when is the last time someone made a deal like that since? Can't think of one. Way of the dinosaur. MLB owners are dinosaurs, but they have moved on, maybe from the Crustaceous to the Jurassic, but they are moving.



This deal the players probably feel they have a win. And in a way, I think they did. I just foresee those huge contracts going a different route, and fewer of them. And I foresee fewer mega deals for Tatis Jr. and Trout. I think you'll still see some really good deals. But I think those 10-11 year deals to really young guys are also going to be a lot fewer in between now.



I think it helps the small market teams eventually when that FA pool really gets younger and better, will take a few years, but it's coming.



The junk you could only get for 5 million a year for a two year deal is going to become a thing of the past. Forget the Dodgers and Yankees and Red Sox, the only teams that have consistently pushed the CBT year after year. Sure they will stay in the old mode when it works.



For the rest of them, they're going to start paring back. Wait and see. Like I said, 30-0 is very telling. IDK what the players vote was, but it was not remotely unanimous. So this CBA is going to help with competitive balance, because that's what we all want. They just went about it a different way than a cap and a floor, something I've gotten tired about people talking about because neither of those sides approached those concepts.
GreenWeenie
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by GreenWeenie »

Max Scherzer got a little deal.  So little, that when Al needs a little dough, Al can go to him for a loan.



If you think this new lottery is going to prevent tanking, then I have some competitive Pirates Baseball in Alaska for YOU.



In MLB, the 12th pick or a pick in the 12th ROUND has sometimes been more successful than the first guy taken.



The teams that have tanked successfully (Royals, Cubs, Astros) have backed it up with money.  Lots of money.



Teams will still tank.  This lottery won't reduce it by very much.  You'll see.



We'll always have certain owners who aren't willing to spend.  It's their nature.  Tanking is here to stay until the next trend.



https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/13 ... tony-clark



Read the final sentence.


GreenWeenie
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by GreenWeenie »

Well, lookit that.



That high revenue Oakland A's franchise isn't tanking.  They just sent AS pitcher, Chris Bassitt, to the NYM for a couple of suspects.
Surgnbuck
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by Surgnbuck »

7A4F5858536A58585354583D0 wrote: Well, lookit that.



That high revenue Oakland A's franchise isn't tanking.  They just sent AS pitcher, Chris Bassitt, to the NYM for a couple of suspects.
Yes, they're tanking all right. Last 4 seasons they have gone 315-230, two wild card appearances, a division title, and a .578 winning percentage.



Yeah, you picked a GREAT example, just because they traded a 33 year old pitcher with one year of control left for one of the Mets two highest pitching prospects and another pitcher. Their staff was 6th in the AL. Yeah, clearly a dump. Clearly tanking considering they still have a strong rotation.



I'll wait for your next attempt at humor. This one made me laugh quite well.
Surgnbuck
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The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by Surgnbuck »

1A2F3838330A38383334385D0 wrote: Max Scherzer got a little deal.  So little, that when Al needs a little dough, Al can go to him for a loan.



If you think this new lottery is going to prevent tanking, then I have some competitive Pirates Baseball in Alaska for YOU.



In MLB, the 12th pick or a pick in the 12th ROUND has sometimes been more successful than the first guy taken.



The teams that have tanked successfully (Royals, Cubs, Astros) have backed it up with money.  Lots of money.



Teams will still tank.  This lottery won't reduce it by very much.  You'll see.



We'll always have certain owners who aren't willing to spend.  It's their nature.  Tanking is here to stay until the next trend.



https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/13 ... tony-clark



Read the final sentence.




All I'll say is we disagree, and I'll just keep it to the topic, you can keep your land.



And once again, we see someone adding something that isn't a cumulative stat among different players, WAR. It's nice when they do it, it seems so absolutely logical, even though it isn't.



So you found someone to back up your premise. Stick with that guy. See if he changes his stripes in a few years.



I can see you still don't understand my premise. Teams like the Pirates will spend up in the coming years, simply because the cost of serviceable free agents will be manageable because there is eventually going to be a glut.



Didn't say it was going to happen overnight. So keep throwing out every little tidbit, my argument is about the long haul and eventuality.



Here's directly from the CBA: Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.



So, it's obvious your guy didn't really consider the fact tanking isn't really going to pan out. For tanking to work, you need more than one season or two to get to Astroland. Correa, Springer, Bregman. Took a lot of tanking for that. Bregman was a product of not signing Brady Aiken. That worked out really well for them, didn't it? But....never would have happened with the new rules.



Start reading up on this stuff. If the players agree to an international draft by July 25th, the qualifying offer system will be eliminated.



At the very least, you should be ECSTATIC that BN has to open up his wallet really wide for the LMG's, because they got quite a hefty boost.



Here's the cliff notes: The new CBA is starting to favor the younger guys. The new CBA incentivizes playing the younger guys, who may be much more valuable than that "veterany presence" type. And a lot cheaper. No need to hold the young stallions back now.



Hi ho Silver! That means the cheapskates like Bob can field their absolute best team, and still be frugal.




2drfischer@gmail.c

The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

65434451585443555D360 wrote: Max Scherzer got a little deal.  So little, that when Al needs a little dough, Al can go to him for a loan.



If you think this new lottery is going to prevent tanking, then I have some competitive Pirates Baseball in Alaska for YOU.



In MLB, the 12th pick or a pick in the 12th ROUND has sometimes been more successful than the first guy taken.



The teams that have tanked successfully (Royals, Cubs, Astros) have backed it up with money.  Lots of money.



Teams will still tank.  This lottery won't reduce it by very much.  You'll see.



We'll always have certain owners who aren't willing to spend.  It's their nature.  Tanking is here to stay until the next trend.



https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/13 ... tony-clark



Read the final sentence.




All I'll say is we disagree, and I'll just keep it to the topic, you can keep your land.



And once again, we see someone adding something that isn't a cumulative stat among different players, WAR. It's nice when they do it, it seems so absolutely logical, even though it isn't.



So you found someone to back up your premise. Stick with that guy. See if he changes his stripes in a few years.



I can see you still don't understand my premise. Teams like the Pirates will spend up in the coming years, simply because the cost of serviceable free agents will be manageable because there is eventually going to be a glut.



Didn't say it was going to happen overnight. So keep throwing out every little tidbit, my argument is about the long haul and eventuality.



Here's directly from the CBA: Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.



So, it's obvious your guy didn't really consider the fact tanking isn't really going to pan out. For tanking to work, you need more than one season or two to get to Astroland. Correa, Springer, Bregman. Took a lot of tanking for that. Bregman was a product of not signing Brady Aiken. That worked out really well for them, didn't it? But....never would have happened with the new rules.



Start reading up on this stuff. If the players agree to an international draft by July 25th, the qualifying offer system will be eliminated.



At the very least, you should be ECSTATIC that BN has to open up his wallet really wide for the LMG's, because they got quite a hefty boost.



Here's the cliff notes: The new CBA is starting to favor the younger guys. The new CBA incentivizes playing the younger guys, who may be much more valuable than that "veterany presence" type. And a lot cheaper. No need to hold the young stallions back now. 



Hi ho Silver! That means the cheapskates like Bob can field their absolute best team, and still be frugal.








You make very good points here, Surge, but I still don't think Nutting will increase his payroll much beyond what he did in the recent playoff years. I can see the Pirates playing the younger guys sooner under this new CBA, and possibly paying them slightly more, but I don't see Nutting trying to retain those guys with larger contract extensions. I see those good, young Pirate players being traded away a year, or even two, sooner than they might have been under the old CBA to avoid paying higher salaries.



Nutting's in it for the money. Until he sees the value of winning as being greater than the maximization of profit, I won't believe he'll ever really do what it takes to win a World Series.
GreenWeenie
Posts: 4012
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:47 pm

The next CBA and the future of MLB

Post by GreenWeenie »

123433262F2334222A410 wrote: Max Scherzer got a little deal.  So little, that when Al needs a little dough, Al can go to him for a loan.



If you think this new lottery is going to prevent tanking, then I have some competitive Pirates Baseball in Alaska for YOU.



In MLB, the 12th pick or a pick in the 12th ROUND has sometimes been more successful than the first guy taken.



The teams that have tanked successfully (Royals, Cubs, Astros) have backed it up with money.  Lots of money.



Teams will still tank.  This lottery won't reduce it by very much.  You'll see.



We'll always have certain owners who aren't willing to spend.  It's their nature.  Tanking is here to stay until the next trend.



https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/13 ... tony-clark



Read the final sentence.




All I'll say is we disagree, and I'll just keep it to the topic, you can keep your land.



And once again, we see someone adding something that isn't a cumulative stat among different players, WAR. It's nice when they do it, it seems so absolutely logical, even though it isn't.



So you found someone to back up your premise. Stick with that guy. See if he changes his stripes in a few years.



I can see you still don't understand my premise. Teams like the Pirates will spend up in the coming years, simply because the cost of serviceable free agents will be manageable because there is eventually going to be a glut.



Didn't say it was going to happen overnight. So keep throwing out every little tidbit, my argument is about the long haul and eventuality.



Here's directly from the CBA: Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.



So, it's obvious your guy didn't really consider the fact tanking isn't really going to pan out. For tanking to work, you need more than one season or two to get to Astroland. Correa, Springer, Bregman. Took a lot of tanking for that. Bregman was a product of not signing Brady Aiken. That worked out really well for them, didn't it? But....never would have happened with the new rules.



Start reading up on this stuff. If the players agree to an international draft by July 25th, the qualifying offer system will be eliminated.



At the very least, you should be ECSTATIC that BN has to open up his wallet really wide for the LMG's, because they got quite a hefty boost.



Here's the cliff notes: The new CBA is starting to favor the younger guys. The new CBA incentivizes playing the younger guys, who may be much more valuable than that "veterany presence" type. And a lot cheaper. No need to hold the young stallions back now. 



Hi ho Silver! That means the cheapskates like Bob can field their absolute best team, and still be frugal.








The best way to counter the "WILL Stop Tanking" argument is by asking one question:



Do you really think for one brief moment that BOB and guys like BOB (if there ARE any) will say to their general manager something along the lines of....



"We'd better NOT tank, because if we do, we'll only have a 16.5% chance of getting the #1 pick."?



I don't see that discussion ever happening.



They'll still tank, and hope that the first rounder, second rounder, sixth rounder, will be good enough guys who can help to improve the club.

=====



I hope that the international draft becomes reality. I think that it will be good for baseball, and probably help to clean up a pretty dirty system all around.
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