OnlyBucs

0222312C2D430 wrote: On face value I cant argue with you.  But I wonder just how much the lack of money to be spent hurt Neal's work. 




I think Nutting's refusal to increase the budget hurt in terms of not being able to better supplement the 2013-2015 teams and has also hurt since then.



But in the beginning of NH's tenure, the organization was setting records for spending in the drafts. So, NH certainly wasn't handcuffed there. He just didn't get nearly enough talent out of those drafts.



Where are the late round surprises that are great despite nobody knowing who they were before the draft? No, I'm not talking about players like Chad Kuhl or Brandon Cumpton, who may stick around as roster fodder for a few years. I'm talking about actual, legit, major league players.


You are definitely right about Kuhl (with less than a 1 year in) being roster fodder.



And what about catcher? Cervelli and Stewart are walking invalids, no team in the majors would have either one of them as their 4th option at the position.



Nutting has to spend at least $200 million on the roster and do what the Marlins did. Buy a championship. There is no other way to do it.

Cervelli wouldn't be a back up on any other team?

18333F36333268655C0 wrote:

What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut.  One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs. 




Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:



There are 3 tiers

1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts.  These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts.  However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost.  A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.



2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road.  In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much.  They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract. 



For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.



3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation.  Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc.  The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.



The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project.  Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years).  They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors.  On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.



They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away.  Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic.  The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank. 



Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen.  We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked.  Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well.  The farm needs constant stocking.  Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.



It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this.  EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula. 


This is a VERY good post and almost spot-on. I do have one thing to challenge you on: I don't think it is unreasonable for the pirates to look for an upper level FA at appropriate times. One #2 pitcher in 2015 and the pirates may have a WS trophy to celebrate.



You gotta know your team and when there is true opportunity. the pirates do have the means to invest to maximize a championship opportunity.

56796E6F7965777F1C0 wrote: On face value I cant argue with you.  But I wonder just how much the lack of money to be spent hurt Neal's work. 




I think Nutting's refusal to increase the budget hurt in terms of not being able to better supplement the 2013-2015 teams and has also hurt since then.



But in the beginning of NH's tenure, the organization was setting records for spending in the drafts. So, NH certainly wasn't handcuffed there. He just didn't get nearly enough talent out of those drafts.



Where are the late round surprises that are great despite nobody knowing who they were before the draft? No, I'm not talking about players like Chad Kuhl or Brandon Cumpton, who may stick around as roster fodder for a few years. I'm talking about actual, legit, major league players.


You are definitely right about Kuhl (with less than a 1 year in) being roster fodder.



And what about catcher? Cervelli and Stewart are walking invalids, no team in the majors would have either one of them as their 4th option at the position.



Nutting has to spend at least $200 million on the roster and do what the Marlins did. Buy a championship. There is no other way to do it.


The 2015 Royals (113 million dollar payroll) would indicate otherwise. But, seeing how the Pirates seem allergic to paying over $100 million, we may never find out.

597E75561B0 wrote: On face value I cant argue with you.  But I wonder just how much the lack of money to be spent hurt Neal's work. 




I think Nutting's refusal to increase the budget hurt in terms of not being able to better supplement the 2013-2015 teams and has also hurt since then.



But in the beginning of NH's tenure, the organization was setting records for spending in the drafts. So, NH certainly wasn't handcuffed there. He just didn't get nearly enough talent out of those drafts.



Where are the late round surprises that are great despite nobody knowing who they were before the draft? No, I'm not talking about players like Chad Kuhl or Brandon Cumpton, who may stick around as roster fodder for a few years. I'm talking about actual, legit, major league players.


You are definitely right about Kuhl (with less than a 1 year in) being roster fodder.



And what about catcher? Cervelli and Stewart are walking invalids, no team in the majors would have either one of them as their 4th option at the position.



Nutting has to spend at least $200 million on the roster and do what the Marlins did. Buy a championship. There is no other way to do it.


The 2015 Royals (113 million dollar payroll) would indicate otherwise. But, seeing how the Pirates seem allergic to paying over $100 million, we may never find out.




Cot's shows that Buccos ended 2016 with just under $110 million for their 40 man. It was the first time ever, but it happened... ;D



Another $90 million and we'd probably be hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy (and it is a very nice trophy, I've been up close and personal a few times already)



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... h-pirates/

5E594F47495E19156C4B414D4540024F43412C0 wrote:

What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut.  One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs. 




Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:



There are 3 tiers

1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts.  These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts.  However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost.  A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.



2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road.  In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much.  They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract. 



For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.



3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation.  Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc.  The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.



The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project.  Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years).  They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors.  On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.



They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away.  Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic.  The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank. 



Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen.  We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked.  Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well.  The farm needs constant stocking.  Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.



It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this.  EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula. 


This is a VERY good post and almost spot-on.  I do have one thing to challenge you on: I don't think it is unreasonable for the pirates to look for an upper level FA at appropriate times. One #2 pitcher in 2015 and the pirates may have a WS trophy to celebrate.



You gotta know your team and when there is true opportunity.  the pirates do have the means to invest to maximize a championship opportunity.




Thanks. No arguments WRT the 2015 situation. That one pitcher could have made all the difference. If they didn't understand that at the beginning of the season, it should have become very clear as the season progressed. I don't remember what the market was at that time, but we might even have picked up a rental to give us what we needed at the deadline, though that would have cost a prospect or 2.



The main thing is, a team that spends like the Pirates needs to build through the farm system, and try to pick up some reclamation projects. They will only spend money on a couple free agents. We better have all the other pieces in place, because they can't or won't drop mid-tier money on more than that.

;)072C20292C2D777A430 wrote:

What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut.  One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs. 




Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:



There are 3 tiers

1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts.  These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts.  However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost.  A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.



2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road.  In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much.  They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract. 



For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.



3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation.  Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc.  The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.



The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project.  Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years).  They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors.  On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.



They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away.  Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic.  The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank. 



Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen.  We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked.  Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well.  The farm needs constant stocking.  Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.



It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this.  EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula. 


This is a VERY good post and almost spot-on.  I do have one thing to challenge you on: I don't think it is unreasonable for the pirates to look for an upper level FA at appropriate times. One #2 pitcher in 2015 and the pirates may have a WS trophy to celebrate.



You gotta know your team and when there is true opportunity.  the pirates do have the means to invest to maximize a championship opportunity.




Thanks.  No arguments WRT the 2015 situation. That one pitcher could have made all the difference.  If they didn't understand that at the beginning of the season, it should have become very clear as the season progressed.  I don't remember what the market was at that time, but we might even have picked up a rental to give us what we needed at the deadline, though that would have cost a prospect or 2.



The main thing is, a team that spends like the Pirates needs to build through the farm system, and try to pick up some reclamation projects.  They will only spend money on a couple free agents.  We better have all the other pieces in place, because they can't or won't drop mid-tier money on more than that. 






I agree, the team must be "built" on the farm system and  reclamation projects under Neal/Nuttings plan. Which circles around to the point of this tread - we can make judgments on Neal's record in both catagories.  But 1st I should say that I like Neal, I think he's being asked to do an impossible job (win a championship) by an owner not willing to be accountable for his responsibility.



overall, the draft record is an "F".  For a team so very dependent upon the draft, for as many top picks as the pirates have had, all we have to do is go through the lineup - now many are Neal's players?  Few.



-Catcher - Cervelli: acquired by Pirates in trade for Justin Wilson drafted by Neal

Stewart - FA

Diaz - Latin FA

-1st - Bell Drafted by Neal

Jaso FA

- 2nd - JHay Acquired by trade involving DL players

- SS - Jordy Drafted by Neal

- 3rd -  Jang Ho and Freese FA signing

-RF -  polanco Latin signing

- CF - Cutch DL draft

- LF - Frazier Drafted by Neal (Frazier)

marte is a DL Latin FA



After 10 years of Neal's drafts:

Only 3 of the 13 regulars listed above were drafted by Neal.

Even more of a concern, only one player drafted by Neal was traded for a regular position player (Wilson for Cervelli).

Pedro is the only other player drafted by Neal that played regularly and he was realeased.



Of pitchers, only Cole and Taillion have significant careers.



Very few of Neal's draft picks have played meaningful MLB games. Fewer have been involved in a meaningful trade.

16392E2F3925373F5C0 wrote: On face value I cant argue with you.  But I wonder just how much the lack of money to be spent hurt Neal's work. 




I think Nutting's refusal to increase the budget hurt in terms of not being able to better supplement the 2013-2015 teams and has also hurt since then.



But in the beginning of NH's tenure, the organization was setting records for spending in the drafts. So, NH certainly wasn't handcuffed there. He just didn't get nearly enough talent out of those drafts.



Where are the late round surprises that are great despite nobody knowing who they were before the draft? No, I'm not talking about players like Chad Kuhl or Brandon Cumpton, who may stick around as roster fodder for a few years. I'm talking about actual, legit, major league players.


You are definitely right about Kuhl (with less than a 1 year in) being roster fodder.



And what about catcher? Cervelli and Stewart are walking invalids, no team in the majors would have either one of them as their 4th option at the position.



Nutting has to spend at least $200 million on the roster and do what the Marlins did. Buy a championship. There is no other way to do it.


The 2015 Royals (113 million dollar payroll) would indicate otherwise. But, seeing how the Pirates seem allergic to paying over $100 million, we may never find out.




Cot's shows that Buccos ended 2016 with just under $110 million for their 40 man. It was the first time ever, but it happened... ;D



Another $90 million and we'd probably be hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy (and it is a very nice trophy, I've been up close and personal a few times already)



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... h-pirates/








Thanks for posting. Cot's had the Pirates highwater mark as 21st in 2003.



when you look at Cot's end of year 40 man roster figures the KC 113 million was almost 129 million.

Question about the hightlighted sentence below, maybe NH is not being asked to win championships by the owner (or if he is there are objectives that are much more important).



101701090710575B22050F030B0E4C010D0F620 wrote:

What I see is that the Bucs have gotten into a rut.  One where they will only try to sign reclamation projects and not go at a minimum into the FA market for upper middle FAs. 




Here's the problem I see with the free agent market:



There are 3 tiers

1. The high-end mega-star, mega-contracts.  These guys will likely be difference-makers for at least the early part of their contracts.  However, they will cost so much that it's debatable if they could ever give enough value for their cost.  A middling performance sinks the team, to say nothing of a crash-and-burn. . . and they cost a fortune at the end of their contract while putting out the worst stats of their careers.



2. Mid-tier. These are older players that have done something in the past, but are fading, or players that are middle-of-the road.  In most cases they won't be difference-makers, and they cost too much.  They can contribute to a good team who need to fill one or 2 holes, but as middling/older talent, they are more likely to fall off the cliff before the end of the contract. 



For both the top and mid-tier, you're playing players based on past performances, ones they're unlikely to repeat, as they are aging and injuries are piling up.



3. Dumpster-diving/reclamation.  Older players looking for one last contract, pitchers who lost the plate last season, players looking to rebuild value after a bad contract year, etc.  The only tier that might possibly provide good value, but they are also the group most likely to be out of baseball before the end of the season.



The Pirates, for whatever reason, can't or won't take the monitory risks needed to get anything other than a reclamation project.  Given that, they need to evaluate talent better for the draft and in Latin America (things on that front seem kind of quiet in recent years).  They also need to take players that are over-performing, and/or are approaching the end of their contract, and use them to restock the minors.  On occasion, they may have to turn over the team and have a fire-sale.



They could take on some short-term bad contracts to plug the holes left by the players they trade away.  Overpaying for half-a-season of a player who is performing OK at the time of the trade, and will be gone at the end of the season, isn't tragic.  The danger is overpaying someone, or several someones, for 3 years and having them tank. 



Dumpster-diving is a really erratic way to build your team, but signing so-called mid-tier players doesn't always look much more appealing, and signing top-tier players just isn't going to happen.  We have to maximize the draft and LA signings, and turn over players to keep the farm stocked.  Cutch needs to go before the trade deadline if we can scare up a good offer, and if Cole can build his value with a couple good performances, he should go as well.  The farm needs constant stocking.  Everything else costs too much and carries too much risk.



It comes down to player evaluation, and I think the front office knows this.  EVERY front office knows this, and they're all doing the best they can, but there's no magic formula. 


This is a VERY good post and almost spot-on.  I do have one thing to challenge you on: I don't think it is unreasonable for the pirates to look for an upper level FA at appropriate times. One #2 pitcher in 2015 and the pirates may have a WS trophy to celebrate.



You gotta know your team and when there is true opportunity.  the pirates do have the means to invest to maximize a championship opportunity.




Thanks.  No arguments WRT the 2015 situation. That one pitcher could have made all the difference.  If they didn't understand that at the beginning of the season, it should have become very clear as the season progressed.  I don't remember what the market was at that time, but we might even have picked up a rental to give us what we needed at the deadline, though that would have cost a prospect or 2.



The main thing is, a team that spends like the Pirates needs to build through the farm system, and try to pick up some reclamation projects.  They will only spend money on a couple free agents.  We better have all the other pieces in place, because they can't or won't drop mid-tier money on more than that. 






I agree, the team must be "built" on the farm system and  reclamation projects under Neal/Nuttings plan. Which circles around to the point of this tread - we can make judgments on Neal's record in both catagories.  But 1st I should say that I like Neal, [highlight]I think he's being asked to do an impossible job (win a championship) by an owner not willing to be accountable for his responsibility.

[/highlight]

overall, the draft record is an "F".  For a team so very dependent upon the draft, for as many top picks as the pirates have had, all we have to do is go through the lineup - now many are Neal's players?  Few.



-Catcher - Cervelli: acquired by Pirates in trade for Justin Wilson drafted by Neal

Stewart - FA

Diaz - Latin FA

-1st - Bell Drafted by Neal

Jaso FA

- 2nd - JHay Acquired by trade involving DL players

- SS - Jordy Drafted by Neal

- 3rd -  Jang Ho and Freese FA signing

-RF -  polanco Latin signing

- CF - Cutch DL draft

- LF - Frazier Drafted by Neal (Frazier)

marte is a DL Latin FA



After 10 years of Neal's drafts:

Only 3 of the 13 regulars listed above were drafted by Neal.

Even more of a concern, only one player drafted by Neal was traded for a regular position player (Wilson for Cervelli).

Pedro is the only other player drafted by Neal that played regularly and he was realeased.



Of pitchers, only Cole and Taillion have significant careers.



Very few of Neal's draft picks have played meaningful MLB games. Fewer have been involved in a meaningful trade.

It also come down to when you expect drafted players to make it. We all know that baseball is longer than the other sports for top picks to make it too. Drafting high school kids is a bigger risk and takes longer too.



It is tipping towards bad drafting, but many high pick players can still come up and make the team. And they are expected to of course too.



Alvarez, Taillon, and Cole were all good picks. Sanchez and Appel were not good picks. Meadows seems like a good pick, McGuire does not as they would be expected to be up by now or very soon (McGuire maybe a little longer due to his position). Other than those first round picks, I didn't expect anyone else to be on the Pirates at this point.



Later, first round picks (supplemental) haven't panned out either. Black was traded, Barnes, and Joe aren't really on the radar.



Then you only have a few that made it from round two to five with Mercer, Bell and Hughes being the best. Glasnow is in there too. A couple made it on other teams after being traded.



Huntington can kind of save himself with players like Meadows, Glasnow, and Newman being the next big prospect wave.



I would love to see Craig come on the scene like Kris Bryant did on the Cubs. That was kind of my point in starting this thread. I want that surprise line up threat in the heart of the order like other teams are finding. Yes it is rare, but it happens. The Pirates selected Cody Dickson five picks before Cody Bellinger in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. It was the wrong Cody. Bellinger is making a huge impact and he too was drafted out of high school in the same draft as Meadows (2013).