OnlyBucs

6E6C767066030 wrote: Maybe they made a significant under-slot offer and won't budge.


Maybe this is what's happened.   I hate the prep pitcher strategy early anyway.   It's failed or met with very pedestrian results over and over and over again for the past 9 years, why would I sit around for 5-8 years and expect it to work this time?  These prep arms take like a decade.  5-6 years to make the show, 2-4 years to settle in.  Nobody knows much.  They pretend like they do, but they have no real idea what this 18 year old will turn into.   



I read a BA scouting report on Josh Bell (when drafted) the other day that made me laugh out loud.  Said he had a decent arm.   Now, Bell looks like he's throwing with the wrong hand his arm is so pizz-poor, and here were "scouts" putting it in writing that he has a decent arm?  Did anyone actually watch him?  Perhaps some scout once said his arm was OK, and everyone else just scouted that scouting report and nobody wants to be the industry guy going against the grain out of fear.



They effectively have no idea at 18. They prove it all the time

I'm sure the Pirates are offering Hoglund as much as they can offer. It's the same situation as Lodolo, overdraft a prep player with a college commitment in order to buy him out. It's the way to work around the current bonus pool situation. No MLB has spent so much as to lose a draft pick the next year, so this isn't a "nutting is cheap" thing. This is a situation where a kid is turning down almost $2M because he thinks he'll go to college and then be a top pick. Sometimes it works (Calvin Mitchell, Mitch Keller) and sometimes it doesn't (Lodolo and Hoglund).

So we signed 3 HS arms in the first 11 rounds. It seems that they ended up with around $800,000 extra to sign those picks.

They gave 2nd round pick Braxton Ashcraft almost $500,000 over his slot and signed him at $1,825,000.

I'm assuming they were offering Hoglund close to $2.3 million, or around $375,000 over his slot.

When it became clear he wasn't going to sign they gave that money to HS arm Michael Burrow who signed for $500,000 (his slot was $125,000) yesterday. Just outside the Top 10, Burrow was obviously the fall-back plan in case they couldn't get both Ashcraft and Hoglund signed. At least that seems to be how the numbers played out.

It seems as though this is going to be a weak draft class if/when Hoglund doesn't sign.

But we should probably wait until at least this time next year to make a judgement on the draft. I'll tell you what really is impressive though, their 2017 draft class.

Baz, Jennings, Mitchell, Uselton, Stafford, Bolton, Oliva all look like have prospect status.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is making a statement. Supposedly his defense is awesome too (skeptical after so many defensive reports turning out wrong but HOPEFUL), now he's driving the ball in AA.

There are definitely more guys in the system that boosted their stock, than hurt it.

Stock up:
Calvin Mitchell, O'Neil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes. Jason Martin, JT Brubaker

Stock Down:
Cole Tucker, Lolo Sanchez (though I think the hype train was a little much), Mason Martin (GCL breakout looks a little bit flukey)

I think Newman is back on track after a down 2017. Kramer and Luplow both built on strong AA performances last year and are looking ready to make the jump to the MLB. MacGregor and Ogle looked like they were going to breakout in low A, but both had their season derailed by injury.

Will Craig didn't progress, but there are some positive signs there.

Both A levels are going to be interesting to follow next year. Bradenton will get Mitchell, Cruz and Swaggerty for the lineup, and some combination of Kranick, MacGregor, Ogle and Bolton. Low A will have Baz and Jennings, and the ones from that prior group that don't make the jump. For the lineup, Sanchez and Castro will probably repeat, and then Martin, Davis and Apostel from Bristol.

Yeah, I never understood the Mason Martin thing.  He was anointed after being good for several weeks.  I mean yes, worth keeping an eye on.  But still. 

10222E2E3A082B222F2A2522430 wrote: Yeah, I never understood the Mason Martin thing.  He was anointed after being good for several weeks.  I mean yes, worth keeping an eye on.  But still. 
You're right that it was a small sample last year. It was easy to look at that and dream on it.

But before we write him off, the kid just turned 19. He has limited experience. The promotion to low-A this year was aggressive, and his result there are equally a small sample. His OPS in Bristol is nearly 1.000 in a small sample thus far.

He shouldn't be a top 100 guy any time soon, but he's still interesting to watch. Jack Herman may well end up in the same boat based on his excellent start - though he does look to have more than one tool.

Bucs usually start prep prospects off in Rookie or Appy league and then jump to Low A. Yes, they many have been a bit aggressive with moving Martin to WV. We shall see. He could be moved back to Bristol or maybe even Morgantown. Or they may let him take his lumps and repeat A- for part of next season.

College guys usually start off in Short Season low A. That's my team the WV Black Bears.

6459474A454F44664E59484E4F2B0 wrote: There are definitely more guys in the system that boosted their stock, than hurt it.

Stock up:
Calvin Mitchell, O'Neil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes. Jason Martin, JT Brubaker

Stock Down:
Cole Tucker, Lolo Sanchez (though I think the hype train was a little much), Mason Martin (GCL breakout looks a little bit flukey)

I think Newman is back on track after a down 2017. Kramer and Luplow both built on strong AA performances last year and are looking ready to make the jump to the MLB. MacGregor and Ogle looked like they were going to breakout in low A, but both had their season derailed by injury.

Will Craig didn't progress, but there are some positive signs there.

Both A levels are going to be interesting to follow next year. Bradenton will get Mitchell, Cruz and Swaggerty for the lineup, and some combination of Kranick, MacGregor, Ogle and Bolton. Low A will have Baz and Jennings, and the ones from that prior group that don't make the jump. For the lineup, Sanchez and Castro will probably repeat, and then Martin, Davis and Apostel from Bristol.

As for Craig, he is leading the Bucs minor leagues in HR and RBIs but your comment seems to make some sense as he was not picked for the Futures game this year.  Hayes and Keller were picked.

While I'm at it and the board seems to be interested in discussing the kids in the minors I want to shamelessly plug my best resource for info on the prospects.

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