OnlyBucs

5A4D5B6C7A7A76190 wrote: And my big-picture concern:



We have just lost: Glasnow, Hearn and Baz.



3 high-ceiling starting pitching prospects.



Granted, there are ZERO guarantees for any of them, but they are all high-ceiling arms.



Our starting pitching pipeline just got drained big-time.



And one of them was lefty ... which we are desperate for.
Exactly!  I cannot believe that so many of us are okay with giving up three of the four TOR pitching prospects that we have when finding a true TOR guy is a probabilities game.  More chances equal more chances of getting one.  The fact that the development/coaching may prevent any of them from reaching their potential is not relevant.  One or more of them could also reach that potential.



The fact that we have to pin the success of this trade on the hope that Archer can rediscover his form and results from three or more years ago means that we really traded for a mid-rotation starter who we hope can be a TOR guy.  So, you then pay for a mid-rotation starter because that's what his results tell us he is.  Did Houston pay us for an ace in the Cole trade - 2015 Cole?  Or did they pay for a guy who was performing like a 2/3 - 2017 Cole?



If we had gotten an ace, I would be fine with this deal.  But we traded two potential aces and a potential all-star OFer for one potential ace.  Big overpay!


The word potential is just what we gave away.  It does not mean that Glasnow, Meadows or Baz are locks to be AS.  They are young and have little or no track record in MLB.  I do think that at least one of them will reach their max potential but not all 3.



As for Archer, he is also a potential ace.  Not guaranteed to be one but he has a larger track record to show his potential might be higher than either of the 3 we traded right now.  And it is now that we fans have been harping about almost forever. 



Is it an overpay? I believe so but not as big as you seem to believe. For right now only time will tell if this becomes something like the'58 trade with the Reds of Frank Thomas the Bucs best player at the time for Harvey Haddix, Don Hoak and Smoky Burgess. That deal brought the Bucs a very memorable WS victory as a few of us old guys here can attest.

Agree with Possum there completely.



everyone wants to talk "potential" in reference to Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz.



but a guy with killer stuff, that has a top 5 Cy Young finish already pitching in the killer AL East and a lifetime 3.70 ERA can't have any potential to return or exceed his form even though his prime pitching years aren't over?





The other reason i'm okay with this trade is that by the time a guy like Baz and his lifetime minor league ERA of 4ish in low A ball hits the majors. its unfortunately likely that the Pirates will have a very very very weak hitting team.



why not push the window we had from 2013-15 back open while we still have some hitters?



can't alway look 4-5 years in the future when today (and next year) presents an opportunity.

123938253E263F132432323E510 wrote: Agree with Possum there completely.



everyone wants to talk "potential" in reference to Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz.



but a guy with killer stuff, that has a top 5 Cy Young finish already pitching in the killer AL East and a lifetime 3.70 ERA can't have any potential to return or exceed his form even though his prime pitching years aren't over?





The other reason i'm okay with this trade is that by the time a guy like Baz and his lifetime minor league ERA of 4ish in low A ball hits the majors.   its unfortunately likely that the Pirates will have a very very very weak hitting team.



why not push the window we had from 2013-15 back open while we still have some hitters?



can't alway look 4-5 years in the future when today (and next year) presents an opportunity.


Maybe. Is this team "good enough" for that push though?

Such polarizing views on this trade - I am a little surprised.



Both sides are purely speculative of course, and while I do wish the PTBNL was a lesser prospect, I still like the overall trade. Without posting the wall of text I had originally typed out my feelings can be summarized by saying that while I feel the Pirates cumulative record over the course of the next 8ish years may have taken a hit with this trade, their chances of winning a World Series in that time is higher.



I would much rather see them swing and miss than watch a perennially .500 baseball team.

01333F3F2B193A333E3B3433520 wrote: Agree with Possum there completely.



everyone wants to talk "potential" in reference to Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz.



but a guy with killer stuff, that has a top 5 Cy Young finish already pitching in the killer AL East and a lifetime 3.70 ERA can't have any potential to return or exceed his form even though his prime pitching years aren't over?





The other reason i'm okay with this trade is that by the time a guy like Baz and his lifetime minor league ERA of 4ish in low A ball hits the majors.   its unfortunately likely that the Pirates will have a very very very weak hitting team.



why not push the window we had from 2013-15 back open while we still have some hitters?



can't alway look 4-5 years in the future when today (and next year) presents an opportunity.


Maybe.  Is this team "good enough" for that push though?






sure.



the 2018 Pirates are a better hitting team than the 98 win 2015 Pirates.



so getting a top level pitcher and having another young guy step up to the next level like Trevor has lately.



why can't they compete this year and next?

Well I mean I hope so.  Don't take what I'm saying to mean I don't like Chris Archer, 'cos I do.  But this team has been wildly up and down offensively all year, and I'm still not so sure that is going to change with this current crew. 

0A21203D263E270B3C2A2A26490 wrote: Agree with Possum there completely.



everyone wants to talk "potential" in reference to Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz.



but a guy with killer stuff, that has a top 5 Cy Young finish already pitching in the killer AL East and a lifetime 3.70 ERA can't have any potential to return or exceed his form even though his prime pitching years aren't over?





The other reason i'm okay with this trade is that by the time a guy like Baz and his lifetime minor league ERA of 4ish in [highlight]low A ball[/highlight] hits the majors.   its unfortunately likely that the Pirates will have a very very very weak hitting team.



why not push the window we had from 2013-15 back open while we still have some hitters?



can't alway look 4-5 years in the future when today (and next year) presents an opportunity.


Baz not even in low A ball with the Bucs. He was at Bristol in the Appy Rookie league. That is somewhat comparable to A-short season. If he had stayed with the Bucs he might have been promoted to the WV Power next year and hopefully to Bradenton some time next yr as well.

If the Pirates hadn't made the trade and Archer went to another team for prospects, fans would have complained that the Pirates had good enough prospects to get Archer but never want to part with them.

I'm glad that they did it, I'm just not so sure how much it will help ultimately

5F5E4554420205310 wrote: I just fail to see how adding a guy that generally goes about 6 innings , has posted a + 4 ERA for 3 consecutive years is going to make such a difference to a very average rotation. I really think you guys are dreamers .



We were fleeced.
Do you even look at the peripheral stats? His FIP was 3.62 which is pretty good considering he pitched in the A.L. East. As far as Glasnow, it wasn't happening here. He needed the change of scenery. It wasn't just mental either, he couldn't consistently repeat his delivery. 12 innings is such a SSS. We were not fleeced in any way.


OK his HIP is "pretty good." Easy to say Glasnow couldn't do it here. But then you say it wasn't mental , it was his delivery. So if he turns into an ACE and it was nothing mental as you say ... then he would have done it here ... no ?



BTW.. Glasgow in his interview said two days before he was traded that "found it" in a BP session . Very honest looking interview , so I tend to believe that. Question is if he "keeps it "