OnlyBucs

7F4D41415567444D40454A4D2C0 wrote: Do people honestly believe they are 20+ games worse than last year's team?


That's only about three or four more losses per month than last year. How many wins were due to Vazquez last year? Marte's bat? Plus I would expect Reynolds and Newman to hit for lower average, even though they're both good.



Seems reasonable to me.

5D6F63637745666F6267686F0E0 wrote: Do people honestly believe they are 20+ games worse than last year's team?


Not me but they will be lucky to win 70 ballgames in my opinion. FWIIW I am really suspect of their pitching and if that goes south things could get ugly pretty quick!

093B37372311323B36333C3B5A0 wrote: Do people honestly believe they are 20+ games worse than last year's team?
So far in the predictions thread, the worst is 56 wins, a difference of 13 from last year. Marte's gone and I don't expect Bell to repeat last year's stats. The pitching and catching are questionable. The division is tough as the Reds improved, the Cubs will probably bounce back to be better than last year and the Brewers and Cards remain strong. Meanwhile the Pirates look significantly weaker than last year. We saw a 20 game difference between 2015 and 2016. I don't think it's too farfetched to suggest they could possibly lose 20 more this year. But it probably won't be that bad.

I'm trying to evaluate how much effect Bell's early stats versus later stats had on W-L. I remember thinking during the season that the effect was not what I would normally expect from the numbers because they were so unevenly distributed. Point being Bell could still have lower numbers but greater effect. Or not, then don't get in the way of whirling fans

7F4D41415567444D40454A4D2C0 wrote: Do people honestly believe they are 20+ games worse than last year's team?


Yes.



Do you think Josh Bell is going to come close to his numbers from a year ago? I don't. You lose the production of Marte and that won't be replaced with whoever comes in. Will Newman and Reynolds duplicate last year or take it a step further? They are capable, but we have to see. Polanco? Who knows what we get and have.



Pitching rotation is horrid. Musgrove and Archer are your 1 and 2. Williams, Keller and Holland are three, four and five. Not a good rotation. Our top guy is probably slotted in as a four on a good team. Do you think Archer returns to what he was four years ago?



Kela as closer? He isn't Vasquez at all.



I can easily see this team lose 20 more than last. Where did we improve?

I'm now starting to feel as if the Pirates won't lose 100 games because the first month of the season will be canceled.

I could see them playing games without fans. I suspect it would pain them to actually cancel the games. They would at least want the TV money.



Incidentally, this should lay to rest the idea that Nutting is cheap. Obviously the man is a brilliant visionary who foresaw the pending situation and took proactive measures to reduce attendance so as to minimize the risk of any virus spread. Like many visionaries, though, he has not received the credit he's due. I'll quit now.

5D5F454355300 wrote: I could see them playing games without fans. I suspect it would pain them to actually cancel the games. They would at least want the TV money.



Incidentally, this should lay to rest the idea that Nutting is cheap. Obviously the man is a brilliant visionary who foresaw the pending situation and took proactive measures to reduce attendance so as to minimize the risk of any virus spread. Like many visionaries, though, he has not received the credit he's due. I'll quit now.


;D

6070714650505C330 wrote: Do people honestly believe they are 20+ games worse than last year's team?


Yes.



Do you think Josh Bell is going to come close to his numbers from a year ago?  I don't.  You lose the production of Marte and that won't be replaced with whoever comes in.  Will Newman and Reynolds duplicate last year or take it a step further?  They are capable, but we have to see.  Polanco?  Who knows what we get and have.



Pitching rotation is horrid.  Musgrove and Archer are your 1 and 2.  Williams, Keller and Holland are three, four and five.  Not a good rotation.  Our top guy is probably slotted in as a four on a good team.  Do you think Archer returns to what he was four years ago?



Kela as closer?  He isn't Vasquez at all.



I can easily see this team lose 20 more than last.  Where did we improve?




Losing that many games is at about the same place in a Bell Curve of possible outcomes as everything going right and them taking the division.  I mean both things are "possible" I suppose.



But this all speaks to the topic of the other post.  This is a thread about Spring Training and has worked its way to talking about whether this is a historically losing team!  There's no more reason to believe that to think the other extreme happens and we do super well.  But look at which side of that we're discussing . . .

3032282E385D0 wrote: I could see them playing games without fans. I suspect it would pain them to actually cancel the games. They would at least want the TV money.



Incidentally, this should lay to rest the idea that Nutting is cheap. Obviously the man is a brilliant visionary who foresaw the pending situation and took proactive measures to reduce attendance so as to minimize the risk of any virus spread. Like many visionaries, though, he has not received the credit he's due. I'll quit now.


Now that's funny, I don't care who you are!