article giving some hope for Hutchison:
http://northshorenine.com/hEFhR
With the news last week of the Pirates avoiding arbitration with Drew Hutchison (1-year/$2.3M), it becomes clear that the front office plans on Hutchison making the team in 2017. I doubt they want someone making $2.3M throwing in Indianapolis. The general consensus among comments from fans on social media is that Hutchison was a throw in from the Francisco Liriano trade last July where the Pirates would have taken anyone back just to shed Liriano’s salary and his then awful pitching. And Hutch is pretty much being written off. But why couldn’t this work? Maybe, just maybe the Pirates brass (who have known to find some hidden gems before) sought out Hutchison and wanted him all along? To anyone that feels Hutchison has no future in Pittsburgh, have you even look at his numbers as a starter?
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Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
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7C415F525D575C7E5641505657330 wrote: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zip ... h-pirates/
Things that stood out for me:
Polanco and Marte projections, it has their slg % at .436 and .420 respectively. Marte has been averaging over .450 the last three years and Polanco finished 2016 at .463. So those low numbers are hard to justify.
The low WAR predictions for Nova and Taillon would have to come from them only projecting them to throw 119 and 112 innings respectively. Both of those guys pitched over 160 innings in 2016, with Taillon getting 100 in MLB and 60 in AAA.
I sure hope Polanco's projection is well off.
Things that stood out for me:
Polanco and Marte projections, it has their slg % at .436 and .420 respectively. Marte has been averaging over .450 the last three years and Polanco finished 2016 at .463. So those low numbers are hard to justify.
The low WAR predictions for Nova and Taillon would have to come from them only projecting them to throw 119 and 112 innings respectively. Both of those guys pitched over 160 innings in 2016, with Taillon getting 100 in MLB and 60 in AAA.
I sure hope Polanco's projection is well off.
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Bobster21
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446263746272010 wrote: To anyone that feels Hutchison has no future in Pittsburgh, have you even look at his numbers as a starter?
Career 4.89 ERA as a starter. Not impressive.
Career 4.89 ERA as a starter. Not impressive.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
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How accurate is Fangraphs?
How did they do in projecting the 2016 Pirates stat wise?
How did they do in projecting the 2016 Pirates stat wise?
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Three Pirate prospects in Keith Law's top twenty. Meadows, Bell, and Keller, with Glasnow and Newman just outside the top twenty. Looks like some good talent coming into the ML system this year or next.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
Thread of Optimism
32302A2C3A5F0 wrote: Three Pirate prospects in Keith Law's top twenty. Meadows, Bell, and Keller, with Glasnow and Newman just outside the top twenty. Looks like some good talent coming into the ML system this year or next.
No Glasnow?
I think Keller is a reason why the Pirates can move Glasnow. I do love Glasnow size and fastball. I hope Law didn't hurt Glasnow's trade value.
No Glasnow?
I think Keller is a reason why the Pirates can move Glasnow. I do love Glasnow size and fastball. I hope Law didn't hurt Glasnow's trade value.
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OrlandoMerced
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I don't have insider, would someone be able to summarize his commentary on Bell? I'm surprised he has him that high, I obviously like Bell, but his defensive issues would add a lot of risk to his prospect profile.
I'm not surprised that he has Glasnow where he does. Absent a significant improvement in command, he will have to move to the bullpen. Knowing that the command piece was the last remaining hurdle for him, he didn't make the necessary strides in 2016, so it makes sense for his stock to fall.
I'm not surprised that he has Glasnow where he does. Absent a significant improvement in command, he will have to move to the bullpen. Knowing that the command piece was the last remaining hurdle for him, he didn't make the necessary strides in 2016, so it makes sense for his stock to fall.
Thread of Optimism
477A6469666C67456D7A6B6D6C080 wrote: I don't have insider, would someone be able to summarize his commentary on Bell? I'm surprised he has him that high, I obviously like Bell, but his defensive issues would add a lot of risk to his prospect profile.
I'm not surprised that he has Glasnow where he does. Absent a significant improvement in command, he will have to move to the bullpen. Knowing that the command piece was the last remaining hurdle for him, he didn't make the necessary strides in 2016, so it makes sense for his stock to fall.
This is exactly why I wouldn't have thought twice about using Glasnow as the centerpiece of a trade for Quintana. If those control issues can't be fixed he is going to be moved to the pen. I understand he has time but it does concern me. I was at his start against the Phillies and it was brutal. The control and inability to hold runners are a very real concern.
I'm not surprised that he has Glasnow where he does. Absent a significant improvement in command, he will have to move to the bullpen. Knowing that the command piece was the last remaining hurdle for him, he didn't make the necessary strides in 2016, so it makes sense for his stock to fall.
This is exactly why I wouldn't have thought twice about using Glasnow as the centerpiece of a trade for Quintana. If those control issues can't be fixed he is going to be moved to the pen. I understand he has time but it does concern me. I was at his start against the Phillies and it was brutal. The control and inability to hold runners are a very real concern.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
Thread of Optimism
Even with those concerns (I have them too), he is still ranked pretty high among RHP.
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CutchisaBoss
Thread of Optimism
4D706E636C666D4F6770616766020 wrote: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zip ... h-pirates/
Things that stood out for me:
Polanco and Marte projections, it has their slg % at .436 and .420 respectively. Marte has been averaging over .450 the last three years and Polanco finished 2016 at .463. So those low numbers are hard to justify.
The low WAR predictions for Nova and Taillon would have to come from them only projecting them to throw 119 and 112 innings respectively. Both of those guys pitched over 160 innings in 2016, with Taillon getting 100 in MLB and 60 in AAA.
The ZiPS projections are actually extremely encouraging. Our position players project for about 21 WAR. That's with a very modest projection for Polanco that basically has him being an average starter...same for Cervelli.
And as you pointed out, the rotation looks even better when they only project 159, 112, and 119 innings from Cole, Taillon, and Nova respectively. I expect all 3 to be in the 180-200 innings range (barring injury of course).
To take it even further, their projection on Cole is also probably too bullish with a 3.45 ERA considering he was at 2.77 last year before the injury. We only got 12 starts of the real Gerrit Cole last year. To me, that's the biggest blow last year...the 2016 team probably wins at least 85 games with a full season of healthy Cole. We need him healthy for 200 innings in 2017.
Even if Taillon pitches roughly the same as he did in 2016, but for a full season...that puts him on pace to be a 3-4 WAR pitcher. If Cole is healthy, he should be back to the 4-5 WAR level from 2015. That alone gives us a pretty lethal 1-2 combo.
I'm also pretty optimistic on Bell. He's 25lbs lighter and been doing yoga all off-season. And he did walk more than he struck out during his 154 PA debut...
Finally, I'm drinking the Glasnow koolaid. He's the real X factor for this season. If he even just performs up to the ZiPS projection, we could really get things going in a hurry. Here's an interesting read from Fangraphs today on the changes hes been working on.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tyler-gl ... all-steps/
Things that stood out for me:
Polanco and Marte projections, it has their slg % at .436 and .420 respectively. Marte has been averaging over .450 the last three years and Polanco finished 2016 at .463. So those low numbers are hard to justify.
The low WAR predictions for Nova and Taillon would have to come from them only projecting them to throw 119 and 112 innings respectively. Both of those guys pitched over 160 innings in 2016, with Taillon getting 100 in MLB and 60 in AAA.
The ZiPS projections are actually extremely encouraging. Our position players project for about 21 WAR. That's with a very modest projection for Polanco that basically has him being an average starter...same for Cervelli.
And as you pointed out, the rotation looks even better when they only project 159, 112, and 119 innings from Cole, Taillon, and Nova respectively. I expect all 3 to be in the 180-200 innings range (barring injury of course).
To take it even further, their projection on Cole is also probably too bullish with a 3.45 ERA considering he was at 2.77 last year before the injury. We only got 12 starts of the real Gerrit Cole last year. To me, that's the biggest blow last year...the 2016 team probably wins at least 85 games with a full season of healthy Cole. We need him healthy for 200 innings in 2017.
Even if Taillon pitches roughly the same as he did in 2016, but for a full season...that puts him on pace to be a 3-4 WAR pitcher. If Cole is healthy, he should be back to the 4-5 WAR level from 2015. That alone gives us a pretty lethal 1-2 combo.
I'm also pretty optimistic on Bell. He's 25lbs lighter and been doing yoga all off-season. And he did walk more than he struck out during his 154 PA debut...
Finally, I'm drinking the Glasnow koolaid. He's the real X factor for this season. If he even just performs up to the ZiPS projection, we could really get things going in a hurry. Here's an interesting read from Fangraphs today on the changes hes been working on.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tyler-gl ... all-steps/