597479686F7E69292A1B0 wrote: No worries, VA. I would just say to all concerned, the one thing we all agree on is our desire to see the Pirates succeed. Opinions differ as to how, or even if, they'll get there and arguing different opinions is fine. But we can still be respectful of others even when we disagree. My experience has been that posters can't be pigeonholed into always being right or always wrong. I often disagree with Dog but there are other times I agree with him completely. I have disagreed with Aaron in the past, yet I find him quite knowledgeable and an asset to the board. And as much as I'd like to think I'm always right, it pains me to say I'm not. Sometimes we just have to remember that we're not going to change someone's mind about a particular issue and let it go. And as long as we avoid nastiness, I think it's great that there's so much off-season interest and discussion about the Bucs.
That's fine Bobster. I think you know I have a lot of respect for you and other of the mods. I stated, with clear explaination, why I find Dog's post to be intentional in baiting people. Use of misquotes, ignoring clear intent of a post to make spurious argument, ignoring answers that are offered - all of this exist in the above example, a simple example. I can go to threads currently at the top of the page and point this out in further detail.
I've personally been drawn into these very tactics. You can say "don't get drawn in" but that's also saying that Dog's means are fine on this board.
I have absolutely zero problem with his opinions. None. Sometimes I also agree with him. It's not his eternal optimism. It is his style of baiting that is unnecessary and should be cleaned up. Imho. And again, with all due respect to you.
2202110C0D630 wrote: With the last two losing seasons and a healthy dose of cynicism for 2018, seems many are excusing the Pirates. However, where there are some valid reasons out of NH’s control, he has been and remains at the core of the issue.
First let me address a few valid issues when evaluating NH
1. The Pirates are a small market team with seemingly a smaller market owner.
2. Pirates have been the victim of a few unfortunate things the last two years.
There. I put it out as to not be accused of acknowledging two relatively valid points. But I believe it’s equally valid to dig a little deeper into both points to put in proper perspective.
Point #1 is the most valid. Fact is Pirates don’t have some of the luxuries of other teams. It’s a reality all small market teams have to deal with. But is not an excuse to fail. As we’ve seen from other teams in similar markets, success can be achieved and sustained for a period of time. And both in terms of level and length of success, there have been more successful small market teams than the Pirates.
Point #2 is more anecdotal. Yes, nobody could have predicted Kang not being allowed into the country or Marte get busted for PED use and missing half a season (while also casting a shadow of doubt about his true abilities). But losing players to various injuries and other issues is part of the sports landscape. Yes, it happened to the Pirates with both these guys and it certainly had a negative impact. But the Pirates weren’t the only team in baseball to have players miss time. Even including Marte and Kang, the Pirates were still below average for games lost to injury in 2017. Additionally, the hidden secret they don’t want you to know? They were extremely fortunate regarding injuries 2013-2015. So it appears either their luck ran out or the law of averages caught up to them. You can’t honestly blame the failures of the last two years on bad luck while ignoring the good fortune they experienced 2013-2015. Were they only good those three years because they avoided the injury bug? No. Just like they weren’t bad last year because they did experience injuries/games lost.
So with those two points acknowledged, let’s move on to what I believe are the bigger issues and at the core of what ails the Pirates in 2018 and beyond.
* Financial Flexibility. This somewhat involves point number one from above. But where people like to defend NH by saying he built a winner before so he can do it again, I believe they’re ignoring a bigger picture. Back in 2013-2014 the Pirates were getting significant production from inexpensive talent. McCutchen, Marte, Walker, Alvarez, Cole, Melancon, Grilli and Harrison were massive bargains and several were earning less than $1 million. Due to this, it allowed NH to make moves for guys like Burnett, Liriano and Martin. Unfortunately that financial flexibility does not exist today as the Pirates have clearly hit the ceiling on their payroll maximum, limiting their options. So where NH is able to succeed with a $20 million dollar cushion, he’s a different GM without it. Just look at what he did after both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Rather than acquiring players with actual talent or reasonable hope to bounce back and contribute on a meaningful level, he acquired untalented guys like Niese and Vogelsong or overpaid for guys like Hudson and Rodriguez.
* Drafting. This was supposed to be the core of their rebuild and an area NH was going to excel. At least that’s what we were sold back in 2008. Unfortunately it’s not remotely accurate 9 years later. Based on bWAR, the Pirates rank 21st in all of baseball for drafted players since 2008. Below average but even worse considering a) where they drafted, b) resources spent (before MLB instituted a slotting system), and c) the significance of a team like the Pirates depending on acquiring talent through the draft.
Additionally, looking at picks after the 2nd round the Pirates are even worse, rankings 23rd in all of baseball. NH simply isn’t getting production unless he’s taking guys with early picks even casual fans likely could make. And the production they receive, is well below average.
If you read many of the blogs or websites dedicated to the Pirates minor leagues, praising NH, or in some cases doing both, this may come as a surprise. Personally, I’m always amazed at the level of misinformation or unbridled and irrational optimism some of these sites perpetuate. In their and our own defense, we all somewhat lost sight of the failures in these areas as we celebrated their successes in 2013-2015. But the evidence was there even back then. The vast majority of production those years came from:
2. Players acquired via trade (Burnett in ‘13, Harrison, Morton, Melancon, Snider).
3. Players acquired via FA (Martin, Liriano, Burnett in ‘15, Volquez, Grilli).
The production from players drafted and developed was the vast minority (Alvarez, Cole, Justin Wilson).
Now, you might be thinking it’s acceptable for the drafted players to contribute less in those years as most of them would still be developing in the minors. Which is partially true. But then gets to the bigger issue regarding the failures of the last two years.
While some fans want to inaccurately blame those seasons on bad luck, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problem of poor drafting.
While some fans want to blame the Pirates being a small market team and unable to compete for legitimate FA, they conveniently ignore the bigger fundamental problems of poor drafting.
Where there is certainly time for more recent drafts to change and possibly improve the data, there’s simply no denying how poorly NH did 2008 to 2010. Just look at what they drafted and now have to show for those three drafts:
1. Received a few years of slightly above average seasons from Pedro Alvarez, non-tendered him and had nothing to show for the #2 overall pick just 8 years later.
2. Adequate and passable production from Jordy Mercer, who currently ranks as the best positional player drafted by NH.
3. Justin Wilson, who provided one very good and one poor season as a RP, was was flipped for Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli, who after producing what appears to be a complete outlier, now has a contract the Pirates would love to just give away and get out from under.
4. Robbie Grossman. They traded Grossman as part of a deal to acquire Wandy Rodriguez. It’s the type of deal I wish NH would be more willing to make, but unfortunately didn’t really work out. Simply because the Pirates could have benefited from having Grossman the past three seasons compared to what they received from Rodriguez.
5. Tony Sanchez. Enough said.
6. Brock Holt, the gem of a 2009 draft that arguably could be compared to some of Dave Littlefield’s worst. Holt was part of the trade that brought Melancon to Pittsburgh, but after a great first half in 2015, he’s proven to be an injury plagued, below average hitter.
7. Jameson Taillon. Plenty of time for him to move the needle, and possibly substantially. Still has plenty of upside but looking back 7-1/2 years later, it’s warranted to question if NH made the right pick (Machado, Sale and Yelich we’re still on the board).
That’s it. There are some guys who got cups of coffee, but considering they drafted 2nd, 4th and 2nd, you’d think they would net more in 2017 than Taillon and Mercer. And a big reason for back to back losing seasons and why there is valid skepticism for 2018.
Fact is, NH didn’t just wake up at the 2017 winter meetings with a middling team without many options and straddling between trying to win in 2018 or rebuilding. What he’s dealing with has been self inflicted by his failures as a GM in previous years.
Excellent eval of NH. It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
3D252720203726213C3D2B4E0 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
747F777B7E7F642127506971787F7F3E737F100 wrote: How do you judge a GM if it's just a crapshoot?
But you are against Huntington?
How are you against Huntington and give blame if it's s crapshoot?
Is it all based on luck?
IS HE NOT THE GUY IN CHARGE OF HIRING THE PEOPLE WHO MAKE THE DRAFTING DECISIONS? IS HE NOT THE GUY THAT IS IN CHARGE OF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE PLAYERS?
153835242332256566570 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
If true (and I think it is likely) it makes me lose respect for NH and FC. I would expect NH at least to want to have a legitimate chance to put together a great team and win a championship.
1F323F2E29382F6F6C5D0 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
I know little about the owner but most people with his kind of money are generally smart enough to know if you are losing it's not good for finances. He seems to have gotten into a lucrative business, baseball, with little knowledge of the game and is depending on his help to advise him and he's getting horrible advise. He can still make money but he needs to hire a great GM and he can become famous in Pittsburg and make a lot of money, if he continues to listen to loser NH his reputation in the Burg will continue to go in the tank, and his profits will suffer.
485052555542535449485E3B0 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
I know little about the owner but most people with his kind of money are generally smart enough to know if you are losing it's not good for finances. He seems to have gotten into a lucrative business, baseball, with little knowledge of the game and is depending on his help to advise him and he's getting horrible advise. He can still make money but he needs to hire a great GM and he can become famous in Pittsburg and make a lot of money, if he continues to listen to loser NH his reputation in the Burg will continue to go in the tank, and his profits will suffer.
The "Big Picture" as far as Bob Nutting as a baseball businessman is concerned is that the MLB franchise he purchased for $92 million in 1995 is now worth approximately $1.25 billion. He's gained more than $900 million on his investment in 22 years. He's done this all the while his team has had only 3 winning seasons over that time.
Bob Nutting is plenty smart enough to realize that winning isn't necessary for him to make lots of money as a baseball owner. In fact trying to win would require more effort, and might be more expensive in the long run. Even if he could make more money by funding a winner with higher payroll is it really worth the risk when all he has to do is keep the status quo to keep piling up his franchise's monetary value? Bob obviously thinks not. I'm pretty confident that his business mantra is "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
3317030B0E620 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
I know little about the owner but most people with his kind of money are generally smart enough to know if you are losing it's not good for finances. He seems to have gotten into a lucrative business, baseball, with little knowledge of the game and is depending on his help to advise him and he's getting horrible advise. He can still make money but he needs to hire a great GM and he can become famous in Pittsburg and make a lot of money, if he continues to listen to loser NH his reputation in the Burg will continue to go in the tank, and his profits will suffer.
The "Big Picture" as far as Bob Nutting as a baseball businessman is concerned is that the MLB franchise he purchased for $92 million in 1995 is now worth approximately $1.25 billion. He's gained more than $900 million on his investment in 22 years. He's done this all the while his team has had only 3 winning seasons over that time.
Bob Nutting is plenty smart enough to realize that winning isn't necessary for him to make lots of money as a baseball owner. In fact trying to win would require more effort, and might be more expensive in the long run. Even if he could make more money by funding a winner with higher payroll is it really worth the risk when all he has to do is keep the status quo to keep piling up his franchise's monetary value? Bob obviously thinks not. I'm pretty confident that his business mantra is "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Nutting is sitting on a gold mine. But he only gets that wealth if he sells the team for what it's now worth. I believe he's still turning an annual profit with more revenue than expenditures. Otherwise, it makes no sense for him to not sell.
113C31202736216162530 wrote: It's to bad our owner seems to know nothing about baseball, and just believes the BS coming from NH and CH. We are stuck with these losers for 4 more years. Makes me sick.
I have a different take. I see our owner refusing to commit the necessary resources to win and NH and CH just glad to have jobs and willing to say whatever they need to say to propagate the company line. IMHO, NH and CH know they can't win under Nutting but also know their jobs require them to talk the talk to trick fans into thinking there's a chance.
I know little about the owner but most people with his kind of money are generally smart enough to know if you are losing it's not good for finances. He seems to have gotten into a lucrative business, baseball, with little knowledge of the game and is depending on his help to advise him and he's getting horrible advise. He can still make money but he needs to hire a great GM and he can become famous in Pittsburg and make a lot of money, if he continues to listen to loser NH his reputation in the Burg will continue to go in the tank, and his profits will suffer.
The "Big Picture" as far as Bob Nutting as a baseball businessman is concerned is that the MLB franchise he purchased for $92 million in 1995 is now worth approximately $1.25 billion. He's gained more than $900 million on his investment in 22 years. He's done this all the while his team has had only 3 winning seasons over that time.
Bob Nutting is plenty smart enough to realize that winning isn't necessary for him to make lots of money as a baseball owner. In fact trying to win would require more effort, and might be more expensive in the long run. Even if he could make more money by funding a winner with higher payroll is it really worth the risk when all he has to do is keep the status quo to keep piling up his franchise's monetary value? Bob obviously thinks not. I'm pretty confident that his business mantra is "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Nutting is sitting on a gold mine. But he only gets that wealth if he sells the team for what it's now worth. I believe he's still turning an annual profit with more revenue than expenditures. Otherwise, it makes no sense for him to not sell.
changes in tax code may make it even better for him.
I know little about the owner but most people with his kind of money are generally smart enough to know if you are losing it's not good for finances. He seems to have gotten into a lucrative business, baseball, with little knowledge of the game and is depending on his help to advise him and he's getting horrible advise. He can still make money but he needs to hire a great GM and he can become famous in Pittsburg and make a lot of money, if he continues to listen to loser NH his reputation in the Burg will continue to go in the tank, and his profits will suffer.
I would assume he knows the difference in what he needs to put into the team and the profits he would get out of it. I would think he knows the percentage of return on his investments.
Nutting is not a baseball guy. He needs to hire those people and trust them. Huntington has done it before under the assumed restrictions. Huntington certainly isn't losing him money and was probably a huge factor in getting that billion dollar estimate worth. Why can't Nutting think Huntington can do it again?
Sometimes we just have to remember that we're not going to change someone's mind about a particular issue and let it go. And as long as we avoid nastiness, I think it's great that there's so much off-season interest and discussion about the Bucs.