OnlyBucs

Not really excited about the 5th SP, and I'm against the "wait until Keller gets here" mindset. We've been down that road before. If we begin the season having traded a Fifth Starter and replacing with Wishful Thinking, that is a minus (and an easily avoidable one).


Yeah, this killed them in 2016. But again, they made that calculation in 2016 thinking that Niese would be a solid #3, not to mention that Cole and Liriano would be aces (spoiler, they were both bad that year).



As for the decision to dump Nova. I think we have to look at the overall makeup of the 40 man roster to get understand that. I think they want to see what they have in Brault, Kingham and Holmes. Brault seems to be able to provide value out of the bullpen, but I think the other two could be running low on options and vulnerable to being claimed should they not make the 25 man team. The years of control are very valuable to the Pirates and they don't want to let an asset potentially walk so that they can feel better about the 5th starter role. (That is my take on why they would make a decision like they did with Nova).

On Musgrove from Rotoworld



Joe Musgrove, SP, Pirates







Musgrove found his footing while pitching out of the Astros bullpen in 2017, posting a 1.44 ERA and 31/5 K/BB in 31.1 innings. The Pirates hoped those results would continue into starting after they acquired Musgrove in the Gerrit Cole trade last offseason, but Musgrove didn’t make his first start of 2018 until late May due to shoulder soreness. It was mostly worth the wait, as Musgrove had a career-best 1.8 BB/9 and 4.06 ERA in 19 starts, and the ERA metrics were even better with a 3.59 FIP and 3.93 SIERA.







Musgrove’s season ended with an abdominal injury that required surgery, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training. Not only do Musgrove’s ERA metrics from last season show the likelihood of better results, but his minor league track record is phenomenal with a 2.86 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9. Musgrove already appeared to be a great WHIP option after posting a 1.18 WHIP last season, and the ERA upside makes him an all-around terrific buy that can be had outside the top 200 picks, according to NFBC ADP.

What puzzles me about this entire discussion as well as others on this board is the concept that being a WC team is okay for the Bucs. Hey guys, I got news for you. I will not be satisfied until they win the division and eventually the WS. That has been the target for me since 1958 and it will remain so during this by 61st consecutive season of going to games and for years beyond as long as I can walk through the turnstiles.

Unfortunately, Bucco management does not agree with me and will only do what they need to play .500 ball for the foreseeable future.

Possum, I've been a fan at least as long as you and would love to see another WS in our lifetime.

However with the Nut owning this club and the believable articles written about his not selling and managing the profits by not overspending it won't happen.

So unless a miracle is about to happen the Bucs won't win the division let alone the WS!

0A3729242B212A082037262021450 wrote: Injuries and performance volatility are important factors to consider here.



1. Brewers - They have a weak rotation, Aguilar will not likely be the same player he was last year. Braun keeps getting worse. They aren't a given.

2. Cubs - old rotation and some overpaid veterans will be getting a lot of playing time. Lester is not a good locker room guy, and if things start to go bad for this time, it could spiral. I don't think Baez will be an MVP type performer again, but if Bryant comes back they will still be very dangerous and give the Pirates hell.

3. Cards - Carpenter was all world last year, he won't do that again. The rotation has little beyone Mikolas who was also a Cy Young type performer last year. Not to mention Yadier is still old and heavily relied upon.

[highlight]4. Reds - yeah ok[/highlight].
I could say Pirates- Yeah ok

The Reds projected lineup is:

Peraza

Winker

Votto

Gennett

Suarez

Kemp

Puig

Barnhart

That is a good lineup. IMO better than the Bucs.

Reds had a -123 run differential last year, fueled mostly by wretched pitching. They allowed 120 more runs than the Pirates did last year. I don't care that they have a good lineup.

Totally agree ...



* We don't really have a No. 5 starter

* Two of are starters (Williams, Musgrove) still have a lot to prove

* We have no SS

* We have lost our top power bat (Polanco)

* We basically have no power at all



Despite all that, there is POTENTIAL for this team to be a WC contender ... but the front office HAS to go out and get some players ... at the very least a SS, a starting pitcher and a LH OF bat with some pop.

6459474A454F44664E59484E4F2B0 wrote: Reds had a -123 run differential last year, fueled mostly by wretched pitching. They allowed 120 more runs than the Pirates did last year. I don't care that they have a good lineup.


I am not that worried about Reds for 2019 either. last year the Reds only scored 4 more runs than the Pirates. The Reds should score more this season but I think the Bucs will too. In addition, at least at this point the Reds outfield defense has gotten a lot worse without Hamilton and the additions of Kemp and Puig.



The Bucs did better than I expected in 2018 primarily because of Williams and Nova and the bullpen (Rodriguez, Crick and Santana - three unproven guys came through).

The Pirates were 14-5 against the Reds last year. No way that happens again. With the new Reds lineup; the Bucs would be fortunate to split the 18 games. That already would be 5 less wins

624445524454270 wrote: Reds had a -123 run differential last year, fueled mostly by wretched pitching. They allowed 120 more runs than the Pirates did last year. I don't care that they have a good lineup.


I am not that worried about Reds for 2019 either.  last year the Reds  only scored 4 more runs than the Pirates.  The Reds should score more this season but I think the Bucs will too.  In addition, at least at this point the Reds outfield defense has gotten a lot worse without Hamilton and the additions of Kemp and Puig.



The Bucs did better than I expected in 2018 primarily because of Williams and Nova and the bullpen (Rodriguez, Crick and Santana - three unproven guys came through).


Unfortunately, the Reds have improved their pitching by getting rid of Harvey and Bailey and getting Alex Wood and Tanner Roark.