2021 Official OBN Predictions Thread

PMike · Post by **PMike** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:05 pm

0F594F5B544E5E55584F7D5A505C5451135E3D0 wrote: I don't know what kind of voodoo math they're using by I sure can't see 61 wins. Have they looked at the roster?

I think that it's one of those things where the math isn't adapting quickly enough. There's a strong presumption that teams are trying to improve, and that when things get bad they'll flail about and try to fix things, and that some of those things will work out. I don't think that the models have adapted yet to teams that have decided not to come up for air.

Good point. Hard to quantify when teams are working in the opposite direction of trying to win.

I've heard people say that in baseball, you can assume teams will win 50 and lose 50. It's what you do with the other 62. I'm not sure this team is a lock for the former part of the statement!

Ecbucs · Post by **Ecbucs** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:29 pm

072126333A3621373F540 wrote: 61-99 with one game not played.

599 runs.

I think this would be 2 games not played. No matter, I was getting a little sad that at 56-106, mine was looking like the most optimistic projection!

you are right. I didn't want to predict 100 losses but couldn't pick 62 wins. Perhaps there will be a double header rainout.

2drfischer@gmail.c · Post by **2drfischer@gmail.c** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:46 pm

5A4763616F0A0 wrote: I don't know what kind of voodoo math they're using by I sure can't see 61 wins. Have they looked at the roster?

I think that it's one of those things where the math isn't adapting quickly enough. There's a strong presumption that teams are trying to improve, and that when things get bad they'll flail about and try to fix things, and that some of those things will work out. I don't think that the models have adapted yet to teams that have decided not to come up for air.

Good point. Hard to quantify when teams are working in the opposite direction of trying to win.

I've heard people say that in baseball, you can assume teams will win 50 and lose 50. It's what you do with the other 62. I'm not sure this team is a lock for the former part of the statement!

Agreed. They could very well be 1962 Mets bad. They're going to struggle to win twice a week.

DemDog · Post by **DemDog** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:12 pm

Hey guys, let's keep your post totally on topic. Just give us your prediction of wins & losses with total runs as a tie-breaker. You can also share with us why you chose those numbers. And please don't tell us over and over again the Nutting is cheap we already know that. Thanks for making this thread as successful as previous ones.

bucs607179 · Post by **bucs607179** » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:47 pm

I'm Pretty sure the Penguins are not as good as Cup years but it could be possible that the cities NFL team (12 wins) and NHL team could combine for more wins then the baseball team. Sad but depending on PENS it could happen. :-/

100-62 opps sorry, weed legal in Jersey now.

63-99 600 runs

2021 bright spot: Ke'Bryan Hayes. Think he has rookie status and I predict he will finish in top 5 for rookie of the year.

Let the magic begin! [smiley=beer.gif]

WildwoodDave2 · Post by **WildwoodDave2** » Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:34 pm

392E38286D6B6C6A6C625B0 wrote: I'm Pretty sure the Penguins are not as good as Cup years but it could be possible that the cities NFL team (12 wins) and NHL team could combine for more wins then the baseball team. Sad but depending on PENS it could happen. :-/

100-62 opps sorry, weed legal in Jersey now.

63-99 600 runs

2021 bright spot: Ke'Bryan Hayes. Think he has rookie status and I predict he will finish in top 5 for rookie of the year.

Let the magic begin! [smiley=beer.gif]
Well look who finally made an appearance. Only because he hopes to win something.

ArnoldRothstein · Post by **ArnoldRothstein** » Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:42 pm

52-110, 551 runs

WildwoodDave2 · Post by **WildwoodDave2** » Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:01 am

075147535C46565D5047755258545C591B56350 wrote: 46-116, but we will be good in 2050.

You need to list how many runs the team will score. And you can't say how many they'll score in 2050.
We will give extra credit if he correctly predicts the 2050 runs.

________

_Hey Bobster, how many $$$$ is the credit worth and when can I get it. Don't kick the can down the road.
The credit is worth an 8 x 10 glossy of Ben Cherington and a copy of his soon to be released book, "I Took This Job Just to Piss Off Shedman."

I'll take a copy, please.

Ditto

DemDog · Post by **DemDog** » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:40 pm

57-105 - 602 runs

bucs607179 · Post by **bucs607179** » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:31 pm

2C6F766D7E6B7A6C2C1F0 wrote: USA Today predicts 57-105 - worst in the league.

I don't want to lose 100 so it's just 6 games I need to sneak a win in.