OnlyBucs

0D2D3E23224C0 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.


I get so tired of hearing this. The playoffs are not a crapshoot.  Yes...there's an element of luck involved in any 5 or 7 game series.  But you know what else is involved in any 5 or 7 game series?  Talent.  Are you suggesting talent has no bearing or impact on the playoffs?  Are you saying that Andrew Miller hasn't had an impact on the Indians reaching the World Series and it's just luck?  More importantly......are you suggesting had the Pirates had better teams with more talented players that last three years it would have ended exactly the same way?




Thanks for your response.



To some degree, we are stepping into the arbitrary.  But yes, I'd absolutely stand by my statement that the playoffs are a crapshoot (to a large degree).



Does talent have no impact on the playoffs?  Obviously it does.  But there is no way you can convince me that the Mets and Royals were the most talented teams last year.  The Royals were quite magical with their clutch hitting and use of the bullpen.  The Mets completely lucked into a crazy hot Daniel Murphy and just enough offense from the rest of the team.  I have no problem saying that the Cardinals and Pirates had more talented teams.  No question.  Every year a person can go back and look through the rosters to make that same argument.  The best team doesn't always win or make it through.  The Wild Card has exacerbated this issue.



Andrew Miller has had a huge effect on this postseason.  No doubt about it.  Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the majors.  While he has been the primary reason the Dodgers have made it this far this year, he has been a major impediment in previous years.



If the Pirates had more talent, would things have turned out the same way?  Who the heck knows.  Last year, what would have been the answer?  Which other pitcher in the league would you have rather had than Cole?  Keep in mind, Cole was, what, 4th in Cy Young voting.  Not that it would have mattered because they got shut out.  So, then, what hitters would have been better to have than the guys we threw out there?  What would have been reasonable to beat Arrieta who was in the midst of a run that had never been equaled. How were the Pirates supposed to win that WC game?  I think the Pirates were the better team, but a one game playoff is a crapshoot.  And it stands in contrast to the pattern of baseball.


Seems you want to keep ignoring the talent aspect and solely focus on the luck.  I've acknowledged how luck is a component of playoff series.  But to dismiss talent and claim it's all a crapshoot is intellectually dishonest.


It seems you want to ignore what I actually wrote. I acknowledged how talent is a component to playoff success, but I don't think it's the overriding indicator of success. I then cited examples from just the last year. Your final sentence follows the black and white thinking that myopically ruins great dialogue in our culture by reinterpreting what I wrote in the way you want.

Here's an interesting ESPN article touching on the issue of what it takes to win the World Series --



http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/pl ... ms-win-all

7B6642404E2B0 wrote: Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Kansas city twice, and Cleveland this year. 



KCs payroll was around the 130-140 level when they won. Very comparable market.



  Cleveland just won a pennant with an opening day payroll comparable to ours.  Tried to trade for lucroy who vetoed the trade, gave up four prospects for Andrew Miller from the Yanks.  Now they have a Pennant.


This is an excellent post.  There seems to be a thinking that as long as the payroll is small, they can't make the playoffs.  While stats show that it is much more improbable that they don't make the playoffs, low payroll teams are making it and winning the WS.



The playoffs are a crapshoot.  Make it and anything can happen.  I think last year and the prior year's Pirates teams were better than this year's Cleveland team.  Circumstances beyond their control got in their way.  All you can do is make the playoffs and hope for the best in the small series.


You misunderstood what I was showing then.



KC won 2 AL pennants by outspending us to the tune of 140-160%.    140 million is a payroll level our market could bear, but our Owner won't do that because it will cut to far into his 30-40 million per year profit margin he's had going for the past 2-3 years.   HOWEVER, we can get there POSSIBLY because it's a comparable market.   If enough pressure is put on ownership to stop with these windfall profits, it can happen.   Then again, so many fans and Pittsburgh media carry the water for ownership, it's unlikely. My point is that is approximately the floor, and it goes up every year. That's the minimum level of ML payroll resources where you can have a decent probability of getting there.



So every season we come out of the gates 24th or 25th or 26th in payroll, pirates fans would do well to remember the reality of the situation. It's extremely unlikely we're going to win a pennant this way. Forget a WS championship, lets just shoot for an NL pennant and worry about the WS after that.



Cleveland this year is the only recent example of team that won a pennant on a similar payroll. 



The playoffs aren't a crapshoot.  The NL pennant winners are as follows:



Phillies :2008

Phillies

Giants

Cards

Giants

Cards

Giants

Mets

Cubs   : 2016



Some Crapshoot

78737B777273682D2B5C657D747373327F731C0 wrote: In 2014, two wild card teams played the one and done play-in game and advanced to the World Series.



The Mets made the World Series in 2015 with the worst record of all the other NL Playoff teams. 



The Pirates did improve in 2015 and had the second best record in all of baseball.  The best team was in their division. The best two teams in 2015 both missed the playoffs in 2016.  Actually, five teams from the 2015 Playoffs missed the 2016 Playoffs. 



Of course talent wins Championships.  But all the Playoff teams have talent.  The team with the best record doesn't always win.  If that was the case why not just crown the regular season team with the best record?   



Anyone can advance once in the Playoffs.      




Sure they can!   They don't though.   They haven't in the NL since the Rockies made it a decade ago.  Which is an unrecognizable revenue landscape considering how much media money is in baseball now.   



Nutting MUST INCREASE ML PAYROLL RESOURCES FOR NH TO USE COMPARABLE TO OTHER TEAMS.  Public pressure can have an impact.  The worst that can happen is nothing and we keep the pennant streak going at the NL record.



It requires some fans and what has become a growing media component to stop carry water for ownership for no reason at all. 



what the h3ll they get out of it, I have no idea?   At least when you meet those company-line, suckups at work they are getting PAID by that corporation or ownership they are kissing.



Media gets access, so I suppose that's the reason why they aren't tougher.   Why fans defend it, is mind-boggling it's like some psychology experiment. Almost like Munchausen syndrome only, not a violent hostage situation

Really enjoying watching the World Series this year, but I find myself longing for the Pirates to one day be there. There are a few things in life I want more than the Pirates to get to and win a World Series, but not many.



But as I watch this, I find myself asking...how can we ever beat the Cubs? They've got to be the odds-on favorite to win the NLC for at least the next five years, probably the next seven or eight. So, fellow Bucs fans...is there a way? Does anybody see any weaknesses on that team for the foreseeable future? I don't, to be honest. That reality has to influence roster construction of the Pirates going forward. Any thoughts?

4E46457264416669070 wrote: Really enjoying watching the World Series this year, but I find myself longing for the Pirates to one day be there.  There are a few things in life I want more than the Pirates to get to and win a World Series, but not many.



But as I watch this, I find myself asking...how can we ever beat the Cubs?  They've got to be the odds-on favorite to win the NLC for at least the next five years, probably the next seven or eight.  So, fellow Bucs fans...is there a way?  Does anybody see any weaknesses on that team for the foreseeable future?  I don't, to be honest.  That reality has to influence roster construction of the Pirates going forward.  Any thoughts?


I don't think Cubs are a dynasty and while they should be a contender there will be at least a couple seasons where they are beatable. Hopefully Bucs are team to do it.



I am not optimistic that the Bucs can do it based upon last off season when it seemed to me it was time to look at 2016 as a good chance to go for brass ring and they passed. If this off season is similar to last off season I will say the Bucs don't have the ability to compete either because of payroll constraints.

193F3E293F2F5C0 wrote: Really enjoying watching the World Series this year, but I find myself longing for the Pirates to one day be there.  There are a few things in life I want more than the Pirates to get to and win a World Series, but not many.



But as I watch this, I find myself asking...how can we ever beat the Cubs?  They've got to be the odds-on favorite to win the NLC for at least the next five years, probably the next seven or eight.  So, fellow Bucs fans...is there a way?  Does anybody see any weaknesses on that team for the foreseeable future?  I don't, to be honest.  That reality has to influence roster construction of the Pirates going forward.  Any thoughts?


I don't think Cubs are a dynasty and while they should be a contender there will be at least a couple seasons where they are beatable.  Hopefully Bucs are team to do it. 



I am not optimistic that the Bucs can do it based upon last off season when it seemed to me it was time to look at 2016 as a good chance to go for brass ring and they passed.  If this off season is similar to last off season I will say the Bucs don't have the ability to compete either because of payroll constraints.


It's hard to imagine the Pirates truly competing, and it really hurts to come to that conclusion. I think it's possible for any of us to dream up a contender, but the reality and the dream are simply going to be miles apart.



As I've reflected on the 2016 season I've been stunned by the in-your-face attitude of the ownership/FO. From the off season inactivity to the salary dumping in July to the October announcement that the budget going into the 2017 is already "tight". My gosh, if they weren't willing to protect and add to a 98 win team how can anyone expect them to fill the holes on this 78 win team when there sub-$100M budget is tight?



We're hoping and wishing for lightening in a bottle, not building a contender.



There are several posts above that Cleveland has a comparable budget to the Pirates. But it's not true - the Indians are 10% larger, and while that maybe only $10M, that's another $10M the Pirates would not spend. And no one has answered this Q: in 2015 the Pirates drew 1,000,000 MORE fans than the Indians (even in 2016 the Pirates were well over 500,000 more, I'm pretty sure ). Please help me to understand how a team with about 60% of attendance could spend the same amount as the Pirates, much less 10% more?



I would love for somebody to explain to me how it's possible to turn this team into a contender? Nobody wants a contender more than me. But it simply looks impossible unless we count luck as a strategy (and I don't).

787F69616F783F334A6D676B6366246965670A0 wrote: Really enjoying watching the World Series this year, but I find myself longing for the Pirates to one day be there.  There are a few things in life I want more than the Pirates to get to and win a World Series, but not many.



But as I watch this, I find myself asking...how can we ever beat the Cubs?  They've got to be the odds-on favorite to win the NLC for at least the next five years, probably the next seven or eight.  So, fellow Bucs fans...is there a way?  Does anybody see any weaknesses on that team for the foreseeable future?  I don't, to be honest.  That reality has to influence roster construction of the Pirates going forward.  Any thoughts?


I don't think Cubs are a dynasty and while they should be a contender there will be at least a couple seasons where they are beatable.  Hopefully Bucs are team to do it. 



I am not optimistic that the Bucs can do it based upon last off season when it seemed to me it was time to look at 2016 as a good chance to go for brass ring and they passed.  If this off season is similar to last off season I will say the Bucs don't have the ability to compete either because of payroll constraints.


It's hard to imagine the Pirates truly competing, and it really hurts to come to that conclusion.  I think it's possible for any of us to dream up a contender, but the reality and the dream are simply going to be miles apart. 



As I've reflected on the 2016 season I've been stunned by the in-your-face attitude of the ownership/FO.  From the off season inactivity to the salary dumping in July to the October announcement that the budget going into the 2017 is already "tight".  My gosh, if they weren't willing to protect and add to a 98 win team how can anyone expect them to fill the holes on this 78 win team when there sub-$100M budget is tight?



We're hoping and wishing for lightening in a bottle, not building a contender. 



There are several posts above that Cleveland has a  comparable budget to the Pirates.  But it's not true - the Indians are 10% larger, and while that maybe only $10M, that's another $10M the Pirates would not spend.  And no one has answered this Q: in 2015 the Pirates drew 1,000,000 MORE fans than the Indians (even in 2016 the Pirates were well over 500,000 more, I'm pretty sure ).  Please help me to understand how a team with about 60% of attendance could spend the same amount as the Pirates, much less 10% more? 



I would love for somebody to explain to me how it's possible to turn this team into a contender?  Nobody wants a contender more than me.  But it simply looks impossible unless we count luck as a  strategy (and I don't).




Well VA as I've pointed out before the Pirate ownership has decided to maximize 'financial flexibility' (ie maximize pure profit) rather than maximize competitiveness. Forbes magazine in March of 2016 published financial stats that indicated the Pirates franchise has approximately $24 million more in annual revenue than the Indians. They also have about $17.5 million more in operating income than the Indians. The Pirates franchise is worth $175M more than the Indians. The only mitigating factor for the Pirates is that their debt ratio is greater at 10% than the Indians at 9% (about a $17.5M difference).



The Pirates are capable of increasing their payroll to well beyond the Indians level. As I've mentioned before based on their revenue relative to other teams their payroll should be in the $130M range. The only reason that it's not at that level is that Pirate ownership is focused on profit. The Indians on the other hand are spending about what they should based on their revenues, and it should be noted are probably making a reasonable amount of profit while doing so.

587C686065090 wrote: Really enjoying watching the World Series this year, but I find myself longing for the Pirates to one day be there.  There are a few things in life I want more than the Pirates to get to and win a World Series, but not many.



But as I watch this, I find myself asking...how can we ever beat the Cubs?  They've got to be the odds-on favorite to win the NLC for at least the next five years, probably the next seven or eight.  So, fellow Bucs fans...is there a way?  Does anybody see any weaknesses on that team for the foreseeable future?  I don't, to be honest.  That reality has to influence roster construction of the Pirates going forward.  Any thoughts?


I don't think Cubs are a dynasty and while they should be a contender there will be at least a couple seasons where they are beatable.  Hopefully Bucs are team to do it. 



I am not optimistic that the Bucs can do it based upon last off season when it seemed to me it was time to look at 2016 as a good chance to go for brass ring and they passed.  If this off season is similar to last off season I will say the Bucs don't have the ability to compete either because of payroll constraints.


It's hard to imagine the Pirates truly competing, and it really hurts to come to that conclusion.  I think it's possible for any of us to dream up a contender, but the reality and the dream are simply going to be miles apart. 



As I've reflected on the 2016 season I've been stunned by the in-your-face attitude of the ownership/FO.  From the off season inactivity to the salary dumping in July to the October announcement that the budget going into the 2017 is already "tight".  My gosh, if they weren't willing to protect and add to a 98 win team how can anyone expect them to fill the holes on this 78 win team when there sub-$100M budget is tight?



We're hoping and wishing for lightening in a bottle, not building a contender. 



There are several posts above that Cleveland has a  comparable budget to the Pirates.  But it's not true - the Indians are 10% larger, and while that maybe only $10M, that's another $10M the Pirates would not spend.  And no one has answered this Q: in 2015 the Pirates drew 1,000,000 MORE fans than the Indians (even in 2016 the Pirates were well over 500,000 more, I'm pretty sure ).  Please help me to understand how a team with about 60% of attendance could spend the same amount as the Pirates, much less 10% more? 



I would love for somebody to explain to me how it's possible to turn this team into a contender?  Nobody wants a contender more than me.  But it simply looks impossible unless we count luck as a  strategy (and I don't).




Well VA as I've pointed out before the Pirate ownership has decided to maximize 'financial flexibility' (ie maximize pure profit) rather than maximize competitiveness. Forbes magazine in March of 2016 published financial stats that indicated the Pirates franchise has approximately $24 million more in annual revenue than the Indians. They also have about $17.5 million more in operating income than the Indians. The Pirates franchise is worth $175M more than the Indians. The only mitigating factor for the Pirates is that their debt ratio is greater at 10% than the Indians at 9% (about a $17.5M difference).



The Pirates are capable of increasing their payroll to well beyond the Indians level. As I've mentioned before based on their revenue relative to other teams their payroll should be in the $130M range. The only reason that it's not at that level is that Pirate ownership is focused on profit. The Indians on the other hand are spending about what they should based on their revenues, and it should be noted are probably making a reasonable amount of profit while doing so.




If you're basically correct, then I wish MLB would step in. $30M additional $$$ in Neal's hands would make a material difference.



And if you're basically correct, what an absolute shame that a team that is close was used to milk profits.

Yeah VA it is a shame. I have no doubt that ownership could easily have spent the money needed to bring in at least one top grade starting pitcher (David Price? Johnny Cueto? J.A. Happ) based on their revenue to try to improve or at least stay at the level of competitiveness of the 98 win team in 2015. Even if they deny that revenues are enough and debt is too great (although the rest of MLB's teams finances would belie that) the equity they have in the franchise which is almost $800 million should allow them to briefly have an inflated payroll even if it resulted in a bit of red ink.



It's abundantly clear after 2015 that Pirate ownership intends to run the franchise on the cheap while raking in league exceptional profits year after year. Their prior excuse about waiting to spend more on payroll when it is "the right time" has been exposed as pure hogwash.