OnlyBucs

735E53424554430300310 wrote: I don't think there's incentive for Keller to agree to an extension to buy out his arb years (thru 2025). It's hard to imagine the Pirates offering more than the boatload of money he would get in arbitration as an elite SP. The Pirates have control thru 2025 so there is no reason to extend him only thru then unless it's to offer less than they would pay in arb and Keller has no reason to agree to that.



Also, the Pirates never let a good player walk as a FA. They trade them with a year or so of control left to increase the trade value. So if they don't try to buy out any of his FA years, he will likely be traded at least after the 2024 season if not during 2024. So if they don't buy out any of his FA years he probably doesn't have much time left as a Pirate.


To me, the Pirates best chance to sign Keller to something long term, and for money Nutting would be willing to pay, is right now. If Keller continues to be elite into next season, he'll price himself out of the Pirates range for sure.



And then think of the public relations mess they will have put themselves in. If, in 2024, the team starts to become an up-and-coming legitimate contender, and the team trades Keller for the reasons you rightly suggest, the organization will be vilified from all corners, as they should be. They'd have a lot of explaining to do to Manfred's office, the Players Union, and the fans. But, nothing they said would carry any weight. They would never regain the trust of the people of this region as long as Nutting held control. The Pirates would become what the Athletics are in Oakland.

How much "explaining" to the commissioners office did they have to do after they dumped Cole and McCutchen, back-to-back?



As long as there's an acceptable return and not some Charlie Finley-type deal, I would expect the commissioner to be equally supportive of Pirates management as it has consistently been.



As for fan reaction, that would be similar, too. Fans are accustomed to player movement. FOs are accustomed to criticism.



The team would have to become as good or better than Cole's/McCutchen's or Keller himself would need to become as good or better than Cole for me to be upset if he was traded.

267066727D67777C7166547379757D783A77140 wrote: I don't think there's incentive for Keller to agree to an extension to buy out his arb years (thru 2025). It's hard to imagine the Pirates offering more than the boatload of money he would get in arbitration as an elite SP. The Pirates have control thru 2025 so there is no reason to extend him only thru then unless it's to offer less than they would pay in arb and Keller has no reason to agree to that.



Also, the Pirates never let a good player walk as a FA. They trade them with a year or so of control left to increase the trade value. So if they don't try to buy out any of his FA years, he will likely be traded at least after the 2024 season if not during 2024. So if they don't buy out any of his FA years he probably doesn't have much time left as a Pirate.


To me, the Pirates best chance to sign Keller to something long term, and for money Nutting would be willing to pay, is right now.  If Keller continues to be elite into next season, he'll price himself out of the Pirates range for sure.



And then think of the public relations mess they will have put themselves in.  If, in 2024, the team starts to become an up-and-coming legitimate contender, and the team trades Keller for the reasons you rightly suggest, the organization will be vilified from all corners, as they should be.  They'd have a lot of explaining to do to Manfred's office, the Players Union, and the fans.  But, nothing they said would carry any weight.  They would never regain the trust of the people of this region as long as Nutting held control.  The Pirates would become what the Athletics are in Oakland.


Just to throw some Keller stats out there- last 5 starts 33 innings,

1.02 ERA 4 walks 41 strike outs

I'm surprised that Manfred hasn't come down on BOB for not extending Keller four games ago! A little humor there.

Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .

4D6667626267605D7A6F7A6761600E0 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .


Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million. At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal. I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum. And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million.



If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage. We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.

045244505F45555E534476515B575F5A1855360 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .


Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million.  At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal.  I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum.  And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million. 



If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage.  We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.

0D33363E2D35353E1E3B2C3F685A0 wrote: Offer Keller the Musgrove deal , a deal the Pirates should of gave Musgrove .


Musgrove’s contract is for five years and $100 million.  At his age and with two arb years remaining, Keller would be a fool to accept a five year deal.  I would think eight or nine years would be his minimum.  And, of course, the money would have to exceed $100 million. 



If he continues to pitch at this elite level, he’s going to have considerable leverage.  We know there are a dozen teams or more that will blow the doors off of the Pirates best offer.
Unfortunately you are correct.


I wonder if there is any contract he will sign with Bucs? If he is great for the rest of his time with the Bucs. Max Scherzer is making over $40 million a year, Gerrit Cole has 9 year $324 million contract. I can't see the Bucs reaching a deal with Keller is that is over $20 million a year (and they probably shouldn't do that at this point but if he pitches great all season he is going to come close to that).

They offered the position player, Reynolds, who has been reasonably consistently good, nowhere near 20 mpy AV. 



I don't expect them to make that offer to Keller.  Nor, do I think that they should.



What I expect is for them to make the best offer they feel that they can, and it will be up to Keller to decide his future.  I won't lose sleep if he moves on.