OnlyBucs

Interesting discussion to say the least. Thanks Dog for getting it started.



But I have been around this game as a fan for a long, long, time and really am not into all the analytics that have overtaken the game. That doesn't mean I don't think they are valid just something that is helpful in judging a player's success of failure.



Despite all these analytics I can just go back over the many years I have rooted for the Bucs and see a lot of deep valleys and some really high mountains of success. We have seen some reasonable mountains the last 3 years and the players who did what was needed to get there.



In 2016 I see a team the really, really, really stinks. I see players who are not doing the job from fundamentals to not picking up a player when he has messed up or is having a less that good season. I also see how the lack of leadership from the best players is just not there this season. Cutch, is not a ra-ra guy he leads by example. What an example he is this year. As far as the pitching goes the team needs an A.J. Burnett type. One who has a chip on his shoulder and is willing to throw his weight and experience around the clubhouse and to teach the kids what is like to be on a MLB team.



The front office has bungled things this past off season. Whether it is because of money from ownership or just that their methods have changed and are not successful. For years we have heard that Pgh is place for down on their luck starting pitchers to sign a low cost one year deal and let Ray Searage do his thing with you and turn you into a guy with a chance at a big contract. But the FO forgot one thing. That was Jim Benedict who they let go to the Marlins. What were they thinking? This is one place where they should have spent money and given him a big title. The pitching success has been a team thing with Searage and Benedict.



I just hope now that the team will see that this might be the time to throw in the towel and play the kids, let them get a feel from MLB not by sitting on the bench and playing a day or so a week but by letting them get more meaningful time on the field.



Sorry for the rant but I have been working up to is the last several days and my ribs I cooked yesterday did not turn out as tasty as usual. I changed my rib rub and like the FO with the Bucs messed it up somewhat.

I am not a big stat guy, but they are the only facts we have. We can sit here all day and say who is good or bad and why. But one quick search will end all discussion as stats don't lie.



Trust me, even though some still debate, the OPS rankings didn't surprise me much. I knew who was up and who was down before I looked them up. But you can always break down stats even more to get a better picture.



Possum, what kids do you want to play? They are all up and the team going forward is pretty set. Or do you want Frazier to play over Harrison? Or Vogelsong to go the bullpen? I don't know what "kid" is not playing that you mention.



Those rankings make you understand where the fault lies on the offense. People dog McCutchen all year, but overall he hasn't been the biggest problem. He hasn't been his normal MVP type, but he has still been better than most on the team.

Once we get closer to the end of season, I'm going to run a piece about how far off last season and their career norms some players are. Huge difference

0522332033676F6F6E67560 wrote: Once we get closer to the end of season, I'm going to run a piece about how far off last season and their career norms some players are. Huge difference


Career norms might be tough as many young players or first time starters.

5358505C5958430600774E565F5858195458370 wrote: I am not a big stat guy, but they are the only facts we have.  We can sit here all day and say who is good or bad and why.  But one quick search will end all discussion as stats don't lie.



Trust me, even though some still debate, the OPS rankings didn't surprise me much.  I knew who was up and who was down before I looked them up.  But you can always break down stats even more to get a better picture.



Possum, what kids do you want to play?  They are all up and the team going forward is pretty set.  Or do you want Frazier to play over Harrison?  Or Vogelsong to go the bullpen?  I don't know what "kid" is not playing that you mention.



Those rankings make you understand where the fault lies on the offense.  People dog McCutchen all year, but overall he hasn't been the biggest problem.  He hasn't been his normal MVP type, but he has still been better than most on the team.
You confuse me, Dog. I just explained to you in detail why OPS is a very flawed stat. you respond with "But one quick search will end all discussion as stats don't lie." One quick look at a flawed stat tells you NOTHING!

Possum brings up to points that are important - could the Pirates have done more to keep Benedict? and play the young guys.



Regarding the kids: I'd definitely start Frazier at 2nd and Bell at 1st every game. I'd also play Diaz (is he even on bench?).

Bobster, stats in general don't lie. Sure, some are better than others, but they are the only facts we have.



Yes, I agree Bell should be playing. And he has the majority of the time. I like Frazier. I just don't think the money commitment to Harrison will move Harrison to the bench.

0D202D3C3B2A3D7D7E4F0 wrote: I put players in two categories:



They either get on base and score runs or they hit home runs and knock in runs. 



If you aren't doing one of those, you are not needed.  I do like the OPS stat.  Overall, I think it gives a good sense of the player and how good they are playing. 
I think you get a much better sense of how well a player is doing by looking at OBP and SLG separately. For example, Cervelli has the worst OPS of all starters on the team. So someone might look at that and conclude he's their least valuable hitter. However, looking at OBP and SLG separately, you see that while he is clearly the worst for SLG, he leads ALL Pirate starters in OBP. So if you put players in categories of getting on base and hitting home runs, he's #1 in one of those categories. But just using OPS, he looks like the worst hitter on the team overall. A very misleading stat IMHO.




I don't necessarily agree that OPS is a flawed stat because of how slugging is weighted for the simple fact that slugging is significantly more important than OBP, especially on teams that lack power like the Pirates.



Since it's a completely offensive stat, let's look at the more offensive minded league - the five AL teams currently in a position for a playoff spot are the top five AL teams in SLG, but they're 1/3/4/7/10 in AL OBP. That's not a coincidence.



Saying Cervelli is the Pirates least valuable hitter because of poor OPS isn't that much of a reach, even if it's not entirely his fault. What exactly is his OBP contributing? Everyone would see him rather walk than take an out, and it's not his fault that the guys coming up behind him don't have the ability to knock him in from first base, but how often is your #7 hitter walking going to result in a run? I don't want to get too caught up on stats, but Cervelli's RC27 (runs created/27 outs) is #14 among NL catchers with at least 200 AB's. While not entirely his fault, that stinks - only J-Hay and Chris Stewart are lower among Pirate's who have played in more than a handful of games.



Amazingly, somehow Erik Kratz had a negative RC27 during his time with the team. Having a random person off the street stand in the batter's box and just take pitches would have resulted in more Pirate's runs than having Erik Kratz actually try. That's fascinating! How is that even possible? He must have had an incredibly high GIDP rate.

Here's a classic business book from the sixties or seventies, if I recall correctly, and still on sale today --



http://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/how+to+ ... stid=35539

Stats prove and disprove opinions. There are a few stats I don't care for or I think that are very flawed (Wins, Range Factor, WAR, Saves). But overall, they do give you an idea of how the player performs. Maybe not just one stat, but together you will get your answer.