Who is the #4 prospect for 2017
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:59 am
4245535B5542050970575D51595C1E535F5D300 wrote:
1) Do you disagree with my comment about the system being depleted compared compared to recent years or do you disagree with my comment about few interesting players past Hayes? Or both?
2) I know you follow the farm and I'd love to be wrong. Do you think the system is comparable to recent years?
3) Also, I miss the reports on prospects that use to be posted here regularly. I invite the posters that follow the farm fairly closely to post more often on prospects.
1) Both. When I hear interesting in context of prospects, I think most people are thinking high ceiling. If that's your definition of interesting, I don't think Hayes is actually that interesting. Maybe it's because I have his dad in my brain, but I think his most likely outcome if he becomes a major league regular is steady not spectacular. A lot of teams would take that at third. Of course, there are no guarantees he even gets there.
Using Sickels Top 20 as a guideline, where he had Hayes 6th, here are my thoughts on some guys past him.
- 7. Hearn - Might be the most interesting prospect in the system if he can stretch out. Then again, he might be a relief pitcher.
- 8. Kingham - Showed great resiliency early in his return. He could still be a middle of the rotation pitcher, maybe even a two.
- 10. Tucker - Sure, he posted "meh" numbers last year, but he was recovering a sometimes catastrophic surgery, was still young for his level and before his injury posted two months of a comparable if not better hit tool than Rafeal Devers.
- 11. Craig - Pirates have learned their lesson from Pedro Alvarez and it seems like they're focused on building up Craig's hit tool from the jump. Rough start numbers wise, but encouraging K% for a guy with above average raw power. Could become a complete hitter.
- 12. Garcia - big arm, still raw
- Any 2016 drafted prep pitcher and Luis Escobar. Long way off but stay tuned.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/ ... s-for-2017
2) I don't think it's as strong as it was when Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco were headlining the system heading into the 2013, but I still do think it's top ten in baseball.
3) I agree with that and for a guy who works in Altoona, I should really take in more Curve games. However, I think we've gotten burnt on our excitement created by some of these reports in the past. The cold hard fact about prospects is few of them actually reach their ceiling and many of them flame out before they get to AAA let alone the majors. Look at Stetson Allie and probably Luis Heredia. Also remember our two months of ecstasy with Matt Curry in the SAL or when everyone begged me to put MDLC on the poll? Maybe one or, long shot, two of the players I noted as "Interesting" in answer 1) will even come close to their ceiling. The safe baseball prospects live a couple doors down from the Easter bunny!
We make our lists and pass our judgements, but honestly, anything can happen which is why the list from last year will look completely different than last years and why next year's will look different again. It also makes following player development in baseball more interesting than in any other sport as its so unpredictable. Players no one expected anything from early can become stars, and 18 year old world beaters who have movies made about them can have a 36% K rate and an OPS under .800 in the majors their second season. That's why it took until 1987 (22 players) for the first top overall pick to be elected in the hall of fame!
I think we're all a little more seasoned and maybe a touch more critical of prospects which might lead to your overall thoughts of the system. I know my player evaluations have gotten tougher and I'm a little less likely to assume that a player X is going to have Y career in the majors especially when they're still miles away from Pittsburgh particularly miles to the south. However, you can still look at ceilings and dream big while understanding that nothing is written in stone. Also keep in mind that there are a lot of guys further down the list that could also become contributors. I had Luis Heredia 3 and Jordy Mercer 21 in 2013. Whose the more interesting prospect now?
1) Do you disagree with my comment about the system being depleted compared compared to recent years or do you disagree with my comment about few interesting players past Hayes? Or both?
2) I know you follow the farm and I'd love to be wrong. Do you think the system is comparable to recent years?
3) Also, I miss the reports on prospects that use to be posted here regularly. I invite the posters that follow the farm fairly closely to post more often on prospects.
1) Both. When I hear interesting in context of prospects, I think most people are thinking high ceiling. If that's your definition of interesting, I don't think Hayes is actually that interesting. Maybe it's because I have his dad in my brain, but I think his most likely outcome if he becomes a major league regular is steady not spectacular. A lot of teams would take that at third. Of course, there are no guarantees he even gets there.
Using Sickels Top 20 as a guideline, where he had Hayes 6th, here are my thoughts on some guys past him.
- 7. Hearn - Might be the most interesting prospect in the system if he can stretch out. Then again, he might be a relief pitcher.
- 8. Kingham - Showed great resiliency early in his return. He could still be a middle of the rotation pitcher, maybe even a two.
- 10. Tucker - Sure, he posted "meh" numbers last year, but he was recovering a sometimes catastrophic surgery, was still young for his level and before his injury posted two months of a comparable if not better hit tool than Rafeal Devers.
- 11. Craig - Pirates have learned their lesson from Pedro Alvarez and it seems like they're focused on building up Craig's hit tool from the jump. Rough start numbers wise, but encouraging K% for a guy with above average raw power. Could become a complete hitter.
- 12. Garcia - big arm, still raw
- Any 2016 drafted prep pitcher and Luis Escobar. Long way off but stay tuned.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/ ... s-for-2017
2) I don't think it's as strong as it was when Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco were headlining the system heading into the 2013, but I still do think it's top ten in baseball.
3) I agree with that and for a guy who works in Altoona, I should really take in more Curve games. However, I think we've gotten burnt on our excitement created by some of these reports in the past. The cold hard fact about prospects is few of them actually reach their ceiling and many of them flame out before they get to AAA let alone the majors. Look at Stetson Allie and probably Luis Heredia. Also remember our two months of ecstasy with Matt Curry in the SAL or when everyone begged me to put MDLC on the poll? Maybe one or, long shot, two of the players I noted as "Interesting" in answer 1) will even come close to their ceiling. The safe baseball prospects live a couple doors down from the Easter bunny!
We make our lists and pass our judgements, but honestly, anything can happen which is why the list from last year will look completely different than last years and why next year's will look different again. It also makes following player development in baseball more interesting than in any other sport as its so unpredictable. Players no one expected anything from early can become stars, and 18 year old world beaters who have movies made about them can have a 36% K rate and an OPS under .800 in the majors their second season. That's why it took until 1987 (22 players) for the first top overall pick to be elected in the hall of fame!
I think we're all a little more seasoned and maybe a touch more critical of prospects which might lead to your overall thoughts of the system. I know my player evaluations have gotten tougher and I'm a little less likely to assume that a player X is going to have Y career in the majors especially when they're still miles away from Pittsburgh particularly miles to the south. However, you can still look at ceilings and dream big while understanding that nothing is written in stone. Also keep in mind that there are a lot of guys further down the list that could also become contributors. I had Luis Heredia 3 and Jordy Mercer 21 in 2013. Whose the more interesting prospect now?