I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
484F59515F480F037A5D575B5356145955573A0 wrote: I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
I always knew vaPirate has a good head on his shoulders
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
I always knew vaPirate has a good head on his shoulders
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rucker59@gmail.com
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
072120372131420 wrote: I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
I always knew vaPirate has a good head on his shoulders
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
I always knew vaPirate has a good head on his shoulders
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
It just makes me wonder how many great players were drafted so late. I am not just talking about Cody Bellinger, the 2017 ROY, in the 4th round. Players even later than that had numerous of teams pass them over multiple times. Here is a small list:
Mike Piazza in the 62nd round, Mark Buehrle in the 38th, Ken Griffey in the 29th, Mark Grace in the 24th, Roy Oswalt 23rd, Jorge Posada 24th, John Smoltz 22nd, Andy Pettite 22nd, Ryne Sandberg 20th, Albert Pujols 13th, Nolan Ryan 12th and Dave Parker in the 14th round.
I have a hard time believing teams thought these guys would be Hall of Famers or close to it when they were drafted. Many probably had teams roll the dice on them. Piazza was taken as a favor because Tommy Lasorda and Piazza's father were close friends. He was taken 1,027th overall.
Mike Piazza in the 62nd round, Mark Buehrle in the 38th, Ken Griffey in the 29th, Mark Grace in the 24th, Roy Oswalt 23rd, Jorge Posada 24th, John Smoltz 22nd, Andy Pettite 22nd, Ryne Sandberg 20th, Albert Pujols 13th, Nolan Ryan 12th and Dave Parker in the 14th round.
I have a hard time believing teams thought these guys would be Hall of Famers or close to it when they were drafted. Many probably had teams roll the dice on them. Piazza was taken as a favor because Tommy Lasorda and Piazza's father were close friends. He was taken 1,027th overall.
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
5358505C5958430600774E565F5858195458370 wrote: Only 22 players from the state of PA were drafted in 2017 (one being from a Pittsburgh based High School - #1053 overall).
I would definitely count Brandon McKay as a Pittsburgh based person. He went to Blackhawk (a WPIAL school) and he was drafted 4th from Louisville.
I would definitely count Brandon McKay as a Pittsburgh based person. He went to Blackhawk (a WPIAL school) and he was drafted 4th from Louisville.
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3631
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
2621373F3126616D143339353D387A373B39540 wrote: I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
14262A2A3E0C2F262B2E2126470 wrote: I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
That is a fair assessment. The question about the Pirates becomes one of talent evaluation or talent development? There seems to be something lacking as we aren't hitting on enough high end talent.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
That is a fair assessment. The question about the Pirates becomes one of talent evaluation or talent development? There seems to be something lacking as we aren't hitting on enough high end talent.
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SammyKhalifa
- Posts: 3631
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
My guess is evaluation, but that's just a guess. You'd think we'd get more hits from deeper into a few of these classes.
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dogknot17@yahoo.co
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
03313D3D291B38313C393631500 wrote: My guess is evaluation, but that's just a guess. You'd think we'd get more hits from deeper into a few of these classes.
I started a thread back in June (Impact Rookies) about the Pirates never landing their big rookie sensation. Aaron Judge was a late 1st round pick. Cody Bellinger was a 4th round pick. A big hit like that in the draft is huge for a team. It's no shocker to me how their teams did in 2017.
I did like the idea of the Jordan Luplow call up, but it just didn't work out. Plus, that was no sure thing like the two rookies I mentioned. The Luplow call up was trying to catch lightning in the bottle for a short run.
I started a thread back in June (Impact Rookies) about the Pirates never landing their big rookie sensation. Aaron Judge was a late 1st round pick. Cody Bellinger was a 4th round pick. A big hit like that in the draft is huge for a team. It's no shocker to me how their teams did in 2017.
I did like the idea of the Jordan Luplow call up, but it just didn't work out. Plus, that was no sure thing like the two rookies I mentioned. The Luplow call up was trying to catch lightning in the bottle for a short run.
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rucker59@gmail.com
Poll: Do you think the MLB draft is a crap shoot?
77766D7C6A2A2D190 wrote: I don't think any percentage is a crap shot. MLB spends a ton of money and time evaluating measurables. There is nothing like that (to my knowledge) in craps.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
That is a fair assessment. The question about the Pirates becomes one of talent evaluation or talent development? There seems to be something lacking as we aren't hitting on enough high end talent.
If we we're talking about an element of absolutely uncertainty then you're right. But my point is to rebuke the idea that uncertainty in the draft is Random chance. I think a lot of people think a lot of this is just random. That I don't agree with.
Unlike other sports, MLB has what, 30 or 40 rounds? That means the teams are not even drafting for MLB for the most part. Baseball is unique with the farm system , each level needing 25 guys.
Then, as Notes points out, each organization will have different development results. I'm also beginning to think the main problem is the Pirates development. Let's face it, players come through the Cardinals system a lot more often then Pittsburgh. I'd say they know how to evaluate and develop much better. That removes the crap shot element in my mind.
The only true crap shot, it seems to me, is an injury. But yes, it is a true that the odds are any one person drafted probably won't make the majors.
And while few players from the draft ever end up in MLB, they all can play. The draft is not a game like craps where you either have a player or you don't. The draft is set up to find the very best players. One player may wind up with a hole in his swing, but it doesn't mean he wasn't "right there". Maybe a different organization could have solved the problem.
The draft has all kinds of factors that a pure game of chance has nothing in common with.
It sounds like the disagreement is over the definition of "crap shoot" than anything else. If it were as strict as you are saying, you would never hear the phrase "crap shoot" unless we were talking about a literal crap shoot. It would have never come into common usage.
If we're discussing whether there's a more random factor in BB draft than other sports, the answer is yes and I am not sure how anyone could say otherwise. Not totally random, and scouting and team development is super important, but not a certain thing either just due to the nature of it.
People in the business knew future stars like Sidney Crosby or Gretzky or Lebron are going to be special when they're 12 years old (you could say Bryce Harper is a case of this for baseball but they are more rare). Of course sometimes a guy will fail anyhow in any sport. Mike Trout was considered the 25th best prospect the year he was drafted, apparently; and I doubt that's because 24 teams have moron GMs. I mean scouts give their grades based on a range because it can't be certain. I knew we all know this but I think people are going off course with the nature of the original question. It's just a phrase.
That is a fair assessment. The question about the Pirates becomes one of talent evaluation or talent development? There seems to be something lacking as we aren't hitting on enough high end talent.
If we we're talking about an element of absolutely uncertainty then you're right. But my point is to rebuke the idea that uncertainty in the draft is Random chance. I think a lot of people think a lot of this is just random. That I don't agree with.
Unlike other sports, MLB has what, 30 or 40 rounds? That means the teams are not even drafting for MLB for the most part. Baseball is unique with the farm system , each level needing 25 guys.
Then, as Notes points out, each organization will have different development results. I'm also beginning to think the main problem is the Pirates development. Let's face it, players come through the Cardinals system a lot more often then Pittsburgh. I'd say they know how to evaluate and develop much better. That removes the crap shot element in my mind.
The only true crap shot, it seems to me, is an injury. But yes, it is a true that the odds are any one person drafted probably won't make the majors.