6B6E796A3C4D4E0F0 wrote: This is really interesting.
Depth Charts at FanGraphs has the Pirates projected for a record of 79 - 83, 5 games out of the Wild Card. That's the only credible projection system I've seen out so far this offseason. Obviously, it's unbiased toward the Pirates, so is it completely off-base or are we just sour right now because of our perceptions?
Clearly, the Pirates are not a playoff team but and I don't expect a projection system to change anybody's mind about the Pirates but I also think some people are over-reacting here.
I actually like the Gerrit Cole trade more than the Cutch trade. I hate seeing Andrew go and would have preferred that the team overpay him to stay in Black & Gold. I'm buying Moran's power uptick the more I read and I really like Feliz.
I just don't see a superstar player to build around. I guess Josh Bell could have a .300-25-100 year or something, but I think we need to find a new face of the franchise.
Bell and Marte are enough. Bell's defense needs to continue to improve and his contact rate needs to improve. once he needs to take the next step to a .270 35 switch hitting 1bman. Marte just needs to stay off PEDs and focus, he's already a very good CF.
Mercer is below average but adequate at SS. JHay is plus at 2b. What we needed was a 3bman who was a legitimate middle of the order hitter. Declining Cutch was still an .850 OPS OFer.
We had the pieces and the market was perfect for adding what was needed to make a push. to REALLY compete for one more year before jettising Cole in the offseason.
The Rotation is young and came in NL average last year (improvement could reasonably be expected due to inexperience). The bullpen came in PLUS last year in the NL,despite what is seemed like. What failed us was the offense and it failed us badly.
we kicked the can again. and we will kick it again, and again, and again.
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Remember how the team had a big meeting before the season started in Philadelphia one year? I think it was 2010 when Ryan Church had signed as a free agent.
Team was going to go all in with players hustling and having great seasons and surprise all those gloom and doom sayers.
Ryan hit 182 with Bucs and the team won 57 games.
I don't expect anything that bad this year and maybe the team will finish around 500.
The team looks like it will be below average on offense, possibly below average on defense and slightly above average with pitching.
As Bobster and VaPirate point out in this thread the models that NH talk about show the Bucs should be adding talent.
Yet, NH says himself the moves he has made so far haven't done that. So either he has more moves to make or this will be a disappointing year.
Team was going to go all in with players hustling and having great seasons and surprise all those gloom and doom sayers.
Ryan hit 182 with Bucs and the team won 57 games.
I don't expect anything that bad this year and maybe the team will finish around 500.
The team looks like it will be below average on offense, possibly below average on defense and slightly above average with pitching.
As Bobster and VaPirate point out in this thread the models that NH talk about show the Bucs should be adding talent.
Yet, NH says himself the moves he has made so far haven't done that. So either he has more moves to make or this will be a disappointing year.
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Personally, I didn't mind either trade. They had to be done. Fangraph's 79 win prediction sounds about right to me. Remember last year when we were are critical of Cole, saying, "He's not an ace!" "He's not even the best pitcher on his own team, heck, he's probably not even second best?" And so on, and so forth? Fact of the matter is that Gerrit Cole underperformed here. He was great in 2015, but from there, was a #3 starter. It wouldn't shock me if Musgrove's 2018 is better than Cole's 2017.
Cutch is still a good player, but hasn't been MVP level for two years. The worst part about the McCutchen deal was waiting a year too late. In short, I don't think either deal will have a huge net decrease in terms of total wins, if any. I wouldn't be shocked if 2018 Moran+Crick+Musgrove+Feliz yield more WAR than 2017 McCutchn+Cole+two random BP guys (whose roster spots will go to Crick and Feliz).
That said...this isn't a good team. Stop trying to sell it as one. I actually think they COULD surprise some people, and I do think they'll be more competitive than most. But, in a very tough division (Cubs, Cards, and Brewers should all be good), I predict 70-80 wins. If you are going to win that many, you might as well win 60. So, I'm still hoping they sell Harrison, Cervelli, and Hudson (at least). If we're gonna rebuild, then let's rebuild. This sitting on the fence garbage is getting old.
Cutch is still a good player, but hasn't been MVP level for two years. The worst part about the McCutchen deal was waiting a year too late. In short, I don't think either deal will have a huge net decrease in terms of total wins, if any. I wouldn't be shocked if 2018 Moran+Crick+Musgrove+Feliz yield more WAR than 2017 McCutchn+Cole+two random BP guys (whose roster spots will go to Crick and Feliz).
That said...this isn't a good team. Stop trying to sell it as one. I actually think they COULD surprise some people, and I do think they'll be more competitive than most. But, in a very tough division (Cubs, Cards, and Brewers should all be good), I predict 70-80 wins. If you are going to win that many, you might as well win 60. So, I'm still hoping they sell Harrison, Cervelli, and Hudson (at least). If we're gonna rebuild, then let's rebuild. This sitting on the fence garbage is getting old.
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Fangraphs may not have accounted for the moves fully yet. I hope so, for that websites sake.
The team as structured and in the division it's in has about as much chance to win 79 games as it does to make the playoffs. Something is awry with their estimates.
Pretty sure this is about 90 loss team. It will be more than that if start the season slow. The culture of losing is back and it infests ball players like a virus
The team as structured and in the division it's in has about as much chance to win 79 games as it does to make the playoffs. Something is awry with their estimates.
Pretty sure this is about 90 loss team. It will be more than that if start the season slow. The culture of losing is back and it infests ball players like a virus
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29202839374D0 wrote: Fangraphs may not have accounted for the moves fully yet. I hope so, for that websites sake.
The team as structured and in the division it's in has about as much chance to win 79 games as it does to make the playoffs. Something is awry with their estimates.
Pretty sure this is about 90 loss team. It will be more than that if start the season slow. The culture of losing is back and it infests ball players like a virus
Here is fangraphs as of today. has the Bucs projected to win one more than Brewers. Right now Brewers are expected to give up almost as many runs as Reds. We'll see what happens if Brewers get another starter and more relief help.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.a ... =Standings
The team as structured and in the division it's in has about as much chance to win 79 games as it does to make the playoffs. Something is awry with their estimates.
Pretty sure this is about 90 loss team. It will be more than that if start the season slow. The culture of losing is back and it infests ball players like a virus
Here is fangraphs as of today. has the Bucs projected to win one more than Brewers. Right now Brewers are expected to give up almost as many runs as Reds. We'll see what happens if Brewers get another starter and more relief help.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.a ... =Standings
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The numbers inside the fangraphs numbers are horrible. Only marte is projected to be good, the rest of the position players are bad starters to replacement level.
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
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707971606E140 wrote: The numbers inside the fangraphs numbers are horrible. Only marte is projected to be good, the rest of the position players are bad starters to replacement level.
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
the chart is still showing 78 for 2018, the 75 number is for 2017
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
the chart is still showing 78 for 2018, the 75 number is for 2017
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604647504656250 wrote: The numbers inside the fangraphs numbers are horrible. Only marte is projected to be good, the rest of the position players are bad starters to replacement level.
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
the chart is still showing 78 for 2018, the 75 number is for 2017
Thanks for pointing that out. I was misreading it. I conclude that I must be wrong. I have no idea how fangraphs is coming up with their 2018 W-L predictions. They are not a biased source, so they must be right.
They're extremely high on Musgrove as a starter and very low on Moran as a 3bman. Looking at the individual numbers they've projected for the players, I don't see how a team full of players putting up those numbers could win 78 games, but we shall see.
They're also showing 75 wins now instead of 79. So maybe in another month they'll come down to around 70-72. Idk. The offense is projected to be atrocious but maybe they're right and the rotation and bullpen can stave off 90+losses?
the chart is still showing 78 for 2018, the 75 number is for 2017
Thanks for pointing that out. I was misreading it. I conclude that I must be wrong. I have no idea how fangraphs is coming up with their 2018 W-L predictions. They are not a biased source, so they must be right.
They're extremely high on Musgrove as a starter and very low on Moran as a 3bman. Looking at the individual numbers they've projected for the players, I don't see how a team full of players putting up those numbers could win 78 games, but we shall see.