OnlyBucs

43717D7D695B78717C797671100 wrote: The owners are stupid for being so obvious about this, especially when every team is getting a 50mil revenue check from BAM first quarter of this year.    It could hardly be more obvious to me what's happening now.   The big spenders are boxed in by the luxury tax working like a salary cap, and the lucrative FA class next year.... and 50%+ of the league WHICH SHOULD BE stepping into this vastly more competitive FA market because of that aren't trying to win.    



Unfortunately MLBPA will have to wait until 2021 to strike.   All prior strikes have been an ownership lockout, but this one may actually be an MLBPA work stoppage in 2021.   So far away...

next year is going to be even more interesting.  How much is this going to impact the big FA class signings next year?   



You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.   IMO, there's no possibility a "correction" like that is due to some profound, industry wide revolutionary re-understanding of stats.      


Well, I see what you're saying.  But from the teams' (and fans for that matter) perspectives, what's the real difference between winning 75 games a year or winning 78 games a year?  Nothing except a draft order really.  I remember lots of criticism directed towards David Littlefield and his "Drive for 75." 



Of course those extra war are more valuable to a contender than a non-contender.  I don't know why people think there has to be "collusion" for teams to come up to that very obvious realization.  I mean, clearly Moustakas' value was NOT $8M per WAR or else someone would have given it to him.  Now earlier in the offseason I think it might have been more valuable but he and many others held out for what they thought they were worth. 


It's pretty funny, because the 2018 Pirates are the perfect example of a team that,given this "market" should have held Cole and Cutch and went after Moustakas.



He was a name people on this board we're talking about signing at 10-15 PER and going for it this season. Or writing off altogether as untouchable for us. So surely NH completely botched reading this market, right? Frazier and Moustakas signed for comparative peanuts.

5B6965657143606964616E69080 wrote: The owners are stupid for being so obvious about this, especially when every team is getting a 50mil revenue check from BAM first quarter of this year.    It could hardly be more obvious to me what's happening now.   The big spenders are boxed in by the luxury tax working like a salary cap, and the lucrative FA class next year.... and 50%+ of the league WHICH SHOULD BE stepping into this vastly more competitive FA market because of that aren't trying to win.    



Unfortunately MLBPA will have to wait until 2021 to strike.   All prior strikes have been an ownership lockout, but this one may actually be an MLBPA work stoppage in 2021.   So far away...

next year is going to be even more interesting.  How much is this going to impact the big FA class signings next year?   



You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.   IMO, there's no possibility a "correction" like that is due to some profound, industry wide revolutionary re-understanding of stats.      


Well, I see what you're saying.  But from the teams' (and fans for that matter) perspectives, what's the real difference between winning 75 games a year or winning 78 games a year?  Nothing except a draft order really.  I remember lots of criticism directed towards David Littlefield and his "Drive for 75." 



Of course those extra war are more valuable to a contender than a non-contender.  I don't know why people think there has to be "collusion" for teams to come up to that very obvious realization.  I mean, clearly Moustakas' value was NOT $8M per WAR or else someone would have given it to him.  Now earlier in the offseason I think it might have been more valuable but he and many others held out for what they thought they were worth. 
I'd have to say it's far more likely that teams are in collusion than that all of them suddenly, coincidentally adopted a new strategy based on a new philosophy all at the same time. But I'm ok with that. Salaries are absurd and ruining the game in many ways. If they can get away with collusion to bring some sanity to the game, then good for them. For many years, players and agents have colluded to drive up prices. The union tried to influence players to hold out for more to set a higher market rate for others.

6B464B5A5D4C5B1B18290 wrote: The owners are stupid for being so obvious about this, especially when every team is getting a 50mil revenue check from BAM first quarter of this year.    It could hardly be more obvious to me what's happening now.   The big spenders are boxed in by the luxury tax working like a salary cap, and the lucrative FA class next year.... and 50%+ of the league WHICH SHOULD BE stepping into this vastly more competitive FA market because of that aren't trying to win.    



Unfortunately MLBPA will have to wait until 2021 to strike.   All prior strikes have been an ownership lockout, but this one may actually be an MLBPA work stoppage in 2021.   So far away...

next year is going to be even more interesting.  How much is this going to impact the big FA class signings next year?   



You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.   IMO, there's no possibility a "correction" like that is due to some profound, industry wide revolutionary re-understanding of stats.      


Well, I see what you're saying.  But from the teams' (and fans for that matter) perspectives, what's the real difference between winning 75 games a year or winning 78 games a year?  Nothing except a draft order really.  I remember lots of criticism directed towards David Littlefield and his "Drive for 75." 



Of course those extra war are more valuable to a contender than a non-contender.  I don't know why people think there has to be "collusion" for teams to come up to that very obvious realization.  I mean, clearly Moustakas' value was NOT $8M per WAR or else someone would have given it to him.  Now earlier in the offseason I think it might have been more valuable but he and many others held out for what they thought they were worth. 
I'd have to say it's far more likely that teams are in collusion than that all of them suddenly, coincidentally adopted a new strategy based on a new philosophy all at the same time. But I'm ok with that. Salaries are absurd and ruining the game in many ways. If they can get away with collusion to bring some sanity to the game, then good for them. For many years, players and agents have colluded to drive up prices. The union tried to influence players to hold out for more to set a higher market rate for others.


salaries are absurd but unless the money is used to pay minor leaguers better the money just turns into bigger profits which would be just as absurd in my view.

434A42535D270 wrote:



It's pretty funny, because the 2018 Pirates are the perfect example of a team that,given this "market" should have held Cole and Cutch and went after Moustakas.



He was a name people on this board we're talking about signing at 10-15 PER and going for it this season.   Or writing off altogether as untouchable for us. So surely NH completely botched reading this market, right?   Frazier and Moustakas signed for comparative peanuts.






I agree with you. I thought this was the year to sign these guys and go for it with McCutchen. It was kind of known that players wouldn't be getting those big contracts. There will be bigger, younger free agents next year. The big players are willing to wait.



What I (we) don't know if they would have signed for a two year deal at the same rate. I also don't think if Moustakas (example) was offered this contract in November or December that he would have signed. The season is weeks away. They are getting desperate. The "mutual option" is an example of that.



Getting Moran killed any chance of a Frazier or Moustakas.

040F070B0E0F145157201901080F0F4E030F600 wrote:



It's pretty funny, because the 2018 Pirates are the perfect example of a team that,given this "market" should have held Cole and Cutch and went after Moustakas.



He was a name people on this board we're talking about signing at 10-15 PER and going for it this season.   Or writing off altogether as untouchable for us. So surely NH completely botched reading this market, right?   Frazier and Moustakas signed for comparative peanuts.






I agree with you.  I thought this was the year to sign these guys and go for it with McCutchen.  It was kind of known that players wouldn't be getting those big contracts.  There will be bigger, younger free agents next year.  The big players are willing to wait.



What I (we) don't know if they would have signed for a two year deal at the same rate.  I also don't think if Moustakas (example) was offered this contract in November or December that he would have signed.  The season is weeks away.  They are getting desperate.  The "mutual option" is an example of that.



Getting Moran killed any chance of a Frazier or Moustakas.




Yes, yes. The main place I'd be looking is the SP market.

58515948463C0 wrote: The owners are stupid for being so obvious about this, especially when every team is getting a 50mil revenue check from BAM first quarter of this year.    It could hardly be more obvious to me what's happening now.   The big spenders are boxed in by the luxury tax working like a salary cap, and the lucrative FA class next year.... and 50%+ of the league WHICH SHOULD BE stepping into this vastly more competitive FA market because of that aren't trying to win.    



Unfortunately MLBPA will have to wait until 2021 to strike.   All prior strikes have been an ownership lockout, but this one may actually be an MLBPA work stoppage in 2021.   So far away...

next year is going to be even more interesting.  How much is this going to impact the big FA class signings next year?   



You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.   IMO, there's no possibility a "correction" like that is due to some profound, industry wide revolutionary re-understanding of stats.      


Well, I see what you're saying.  But from the teams' (and fans for that matter) perspectives, what's the real difference between winning 75 games a year or winning 78 games a year?  Nothing except a draft order really.  I remember lots of criticism directed towards David Littlefield and his "Drive for 75." 



Of course those extra war are more valuable to a contender than a non-contender.  I don't know why people think there has to be "collusion" for teams to come up to that very obvious realization.  I mean, clearly Moustakas' value was NOT $8M per WAR or else someone would have given it to him.  Now earlier in the offseason I think it might have been more valuable but he and many others held out for what they thought they were worth. 


It's pretty funny, because the 2018 Pirates are the perfect example of a team that,given this "market" should have held Cole and Cutch and went after Moustakas.



He was a name people on this board we're talking about signing at 10-15 PER and going for it this season.   Or writing off altogether as untouchable for us. So surely NH completely botched reading this market, right?   Frazier and Moustakas signed for comparative peanuts.






1). Moose wasn't coming to Pittsburgh or any where else for less than a long term deal at 15 per. He's going to KC because he is comfortable there.



2). He's simply isn't good enough to get 17 million a season. He's had one really good year and is a career .250 with some but not a lot of pop.



3). 1 war isn't worth 9 million or whatever the experts say it's worth.



4). This signing to me says free agency was broken and is currently being fixed by the owners.

Actually it's much more likely he's going to KC because they won't lose a draft pick (unlike any other team that could sign him) rather than anything to do with Mike's "comfort"-whatever that might be.

232A22333D470 wrote:

You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.         


For this statement to be correct, Lorenzo Cain would have to be projected at 6-7 WAR this year, Hosmer at 8, Darvish at 9, and Martinez pushing 10. One price point does not define the market.



785558494E5F48080B3A0 wrote: I'd have to say it's far more likely that teams are in collusion than that all of them suddenly, coincidentally adopted a new strategy based on a new philosophy all at the same time.


Baseball has forever played follow the leader. A lot of money was spent this year on relievers - that's obviously a response to what's happened at the trade deadline and in the playoffs the last couple of years, rather than to some sort of collusion. The Cubs and now Astros have similarly set an example on how others should do their rebuilds.



I'll predict now that the tanking trend won't even be a big factor when the next agreement is negotiated. The trend will come to a screeching halt as soon as half a dozen of these teams tear themselves apart and then find out they're not getting overall No. 1 picks, because everyone else tried the same thing at the same time.

This is also what happens when the HR is cheapened. So many players are hitting 20+ HRs. Mike Moustakas has one year (2017) where he hit more than 22 HRs. Even Gregory Polanco hit 22 HRs once.



I wanted Moustakas because I didn't think he would get a big deal and the Pirates could afford him. I was told I was wrong and Moustakas had offers.



I did want Moran if Cole was traded to the Astros. At least that worked out. Moran will be cheaper and here longer too. Hopefully, this solves 3B for years to come.

5C717C6D6A7B6C2C2F1E0 wrote: The owners are stupid for being so obvious about this, especially when every team is getting a 50mil revenue check from BAM first quarter of this year.    It could hardly be more obvious to me what's happening now.   The big spenders are boxed in by the luxury tax working like a salary cap, and the lucrative FA class next year.... and 50%+ of the league WHICH SHOULD BE stepping into this vastly more competitive FA market because of that aren't trying to win.    



Unfortunately MLBPA will have to wait until 2021 to strike.   All prior strikes have been an ownership lockout, but this one may actually be an MLBPA work stoppage in 2021.   So far away...

next year is going to be even more interesting.  How much is this going to impact the big FA class signings next year?   



You've gone from a market price of about $8mil per WAR to approximately 2.5 mil per WAR in a calendar year.   IMO, there's no possibility a "correction" like that is due to some profound, industry wide revolutionary re-understanding of stats.      


Well, I see what you're saying.  But from the teams' (and fans for that matter) perspectives, what's the real difference between winning 75 games a year or winning 78 games a year?  Nothing except a draft order really.  I remember lots of criticism directed towards David Littlefield and his "Drive for 75." 



Of course those extra war are more valuable to a contender than a non-contender.  I don't know why people think there has to be "collusion" for teams to come up to that very obvious realization.  I mean, clearly Moustakas' value was NOT $8M per WAR or else someone would have given it to him.  Now earlier in the offseason I think it might have been more valuable but he and many others held out for what they thought they were worth. 
I'd have to say it's far more likely that teams are in collusion than that all of them suddenly, coincidentally adopted a new strategy based on a new philosophy all at the same time. But I'm ok with that. Salaries are absurd and ruining the game in many ways. If they can get away with collusion to bring some sanity to the game, then good for them. For many years, players and agents have colluded to drive up prices. The union tried to influence players to hold out for more to set a higher market rate for others.




Salaries are absurd only if you ignore the fact that revenues growth is even more absurd. And the billionaire owners are keeping more of it. (Slightly old info, but I doubt the trend has changed.) Salary capped leagues? They run high forties/fifty percent to player salary.





That MBAM windfall? It's pretty clear this spring that none of the owners are spending it.