OnlyBucs

0C2E39262A251F243C253823223B4B0 wrote: Many signings will be made before and during the start of spring training by all teams. The players better begin to see the writing on the wall and be realistic. Players being signed to ridiculous contracts, for the most most, are over. But, I will be very disappointed if the Bucs, along with many others, don't sign a shortstop, pitchers (both starting and reliever), and maybe another decent outfielder. I also feel the Pirates could challenge for a playoff spot.


FA market prices are dropping right now as well as teams looking to make trades might start asking for less (Sonny Gray anyone?). I think we'll see some more moves now that prices are entering where cheap teams like us spend.

133E33222534236360510 wrote: I sure wish I could find the enthusiasm that you guys have. I think the Pirates will be fighting for the cellar instead of the title. The Cubs, Cards, and Brewers all have more talent on their roster than the Pirates. IMO the Reds are going to be as good as the Bucs. This team desperately needs a SP, SS, and a decent bat. We are weak defensively at both IF corners and more than likely below average offensively at both of these positions. RF is going to be an issue also. I just don't see it.


Agreed. I don't see reasons to expect more than the 82 wins last year. The key is that Taillon, Archer and Williams all need to pitch great. But that's asking a lot especially with a horrible defensive infield. Bell and Moran are both very bad defenders. They're hoping Frazier can be adequate and they have no SS. And even with good pitching TBMTIB has done nothing to improve a team that was below the league average in runs scored. We seem to be hoping they can at least tread water until Polanco returns. That's the Polanco who's never hit higher than .258 or hit more than 23 HRs and is clueless in the OF and on the bases. I guess this is the time to be optimistic because once the games start, the chinks in the armor show. But I look at this roster and just don't see reasons to expect a lot unless winning 82 games is the goal (which, according to NH, is part of the 78-82 win goal). 






IF defense isn't tremendously important when batters all try to hit the ball in the air all the time. I don't think it's a lot to ask that Taillon, Archer and Williams just do what they did last year.

I think overall, the BP and Rotation combo is the best in the division. I think with Dickerson and Marte, the OF pretty much set, Reyes and Chisenhall will share time until Polanco returns. Most players with a pulse will match what Harrison and Mercer did in the MI last year, so at the absolute worst, it's a wash. I still think the baseline is 80 win team with the potential to compete for a playoff spot based on improvements from Bell and Moran.

Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year. It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.

576569697D4F6C65686D6265040 wrote: Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year.  It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.




Yeah, people are forgetting that Brault spent a month in the rotation. Kontos and Feliz started the year with major BP roles, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer accrued over 800 total ABs and complied just over half the WAR that Frazier put up. They have already upgraded second base by removing Harrison from the mix, if Frazier flounder Reyes or Kramer could take the job. Moran's wasn't as bad as people make it out to be, his BA and OBP were pretty good, he just has to hit with more authority and boost the power number because obviously his HR total is low, and thus his SLG% will have to increase. Bell obviously needs to not have a w month long slump and improve defensively.

Good to see some love, but ---



How about some reality.



1) Jordan Lyles is likely our #5 starter, and the back-up to him likely is Kingham.



2) Musgroves seems to have real problems staying healthy.



3) Williams pitched really well last year, but his success does not appear to be all that sustainable. Tallion and Archer, however, do appear to be solid.



4) Vasquez should be good. I am concerned that Kela couldn't finish the season. Also gotta hope that Rodriguez's and Krick's performances were not a mirage. The remainder of the pen seems to be a real push.



5) Folks have already discussed the defensive and offensive deficiencies in the infield.



6) Where is the power?



The Bucs won 82 games last year, but several other teams in the division appear to have improved. I believe it will be a challenge to equal last year's record.

4C716F626D676C4E6671606667030 wrote: Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year.  It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.




Yeah, people are forgetting that Brault spent a month in the rotation. Kontos and Feliz started the year with major BP roles, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer accrued over 800 total ABs and complied just over half the WAR that Frazier put up. They have already upgraded second base by removing Harrison from the mix, if Frazier flounder Reyes or Kramer could take the job. Moran's wasn't as bad as people make it out to be, his BA and OBP were pretty good, he just has to hit with more authority and boost the power number because obviously his HR total is low, and thus his SLG% will have to increase. Bell obviously needs to not have a w month long slump and improve defensively.
No, Moran was horrible when you factor in defense. His .OBP was ok, batting average was extremely empty with a slugging just over .400. There really isn't much room for improvement with him that I see, unless he gains 25 lbs of muscle and can hit 20+ bombs. The month that Brault was in the rotation? Well you are looking at a full season of that type of production from the 5 spot unless they bring someone in. While I'm not a Polanco fan he was our most productive bat last season and I don't see Chisenhall as the answer until he returns. This team is going to be fighting for last place mostly due to the division.

09252D2A2106312737440 wrote: Good to see some love, but ---



How about some reality. 



1)  Jordan Lyles is likely our #5 starter, and the back-up to him likely is Kingham.



2)  Musgroves seems to have real problems staying healthy.



3)  Williams pitched really well last year, but his success does not appear to be all that sustainable.  Tallion and Archer, however, do appear to be solid.



4)  Vasquez should be good.  I am concerned that Kela couldn't finish the season.  Also gotta hope that Rodriguez's and Krick's performances were not a mirage.   The remainder of the pen seems to be a real push. 



5)  Folks have already discussed the defensive and offensive deficiencies in the infield.



6)  Where is the power? 



The Bucs won 82 games last year, but several other teams in the division appear to have improved.  I believe it will be a challenge to equal last year's record.


1. He's competing for the 5th starter. Kingham likely has the inside track for the job, and in which case Lyles will replace Santana in the bullpen.



2. I don't think that's true at all.



3. Williams has pitched 333 innings in the majors with 3.72 ERA. He is excellent at inducing weak contact, an integral skill in the fly ball era.



4. Kela was shutdown for precautionary reasons, he should be fine. Crick is good, Rodriguez is a wild card for sure. But again, last year Smoker, Nevraukas and Feliz all pitched a lot of bad innings. It takes some time for any bullpen to sort itself out.



5. Can't get any worse than last year.



6. Can't get any worse than last year.

0D0C1706105057630 wrote: Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year.  It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.




Yeah, people are forgetting that Brault spent a month in the rotation. Kontos and Feliz started the year with major BP roles, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer accrued over 800 total ABs and complied just over half the WAR that Frazier put up. They have already upgraded second base by removing Harrison from the mix, if Frazier flounder Reyes or Kramer could take the job. Moran's wasn't as bad as people make it out to be, his BA and OBP were pretty good, he just has to hit with more authority and boost the power number because obviously his HR total is low, and thus his SLG% will have to increase. Bell obviously needs to not have a w month long slump and improve defensively.
No, Moran was horrible when you factor in defense. His .OBP was ok, batting average was extremely empty with a slugging just over .400. There really isn't much room for improvement with him that I see, unless he gains 25 lbs of muscle and can hit 20+ bombs. The month that Brault was in the rotation? Well you are looking at a full season of that type of production from the 5 spot unless they bring someone in. While I'm not a Polanco fan he was our most productive bat last season and I don't see Chisenhall as the answer until he returns. This team is going to be fighting for last place mostly due to the division.


Well I agree with that to an extent. Winning record yet like fourth place.

727368796F2F281C0 wrote: Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year.  It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.




Yeah, people are forgetting that Brault spent a month in the rotation. Kontos and Feliz started the year with major BP roles, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer accrued over 800 total ABs and complied just over half the WAR that Frazier put up. They have already upgraded second base by removing Harrison from the mix, if Frazier flounder Reyes or Kramer could take the job. Moran's wasn't as bad as people make it out to be, his BA and OBP were pretty good, he just has to hit with more authority and boost the power number because obviously his HR total is low, and thus his SLG% will have to increase. Bell obviously needs to not have a w month long slump and improve defensively.
No, Moran was horrible when you factor in defense. His .OBP was ok, batting average was extremely empty with a slugging just over .400. There really isn't much room for improvement with him that I see, unless he gains 25 lbs of muscle and can hit 20+ bombs. The month that Brault was in the rotation? Well you are looking at a full season of that type of production from the 5 spot unless they bring someone in. While I'm not a Polanco fan he was our most productive bat last season and I don't see Chisenhall as the answer until he returns. This team is going to be fighting for last place mostly due to the division.




And if Moran doesn't realize the needed boost to production, they have Kang, and if Kang is washed-out, they have Hayes at some point this season.



If the 5 starter is crap through June, they will have Keller. But I think it's likely that Kingham wins the job. I'm not sure why it's assumed that if guys aren't immediately all-stars upon arriving in the majors, that they are destined to failure. Kingham showed a lot, he's a dude that is going to get better with experience.



Polanco is wildy inconsistent, I don't think losing him overall makes much of a dent to the offense.

2C110F020D070C2E0611000607630 wrote: Yeah, I don't understand how (barring injury or whatever) someone could look at the current roster and decide that they're markedly worse than last year.  It's not like last season all of the stars aligned in our favor to get to our win total.




Yeah, people are forgetting that Brault spent a month in the rotation. Kontos and Feliz started the year with major BP roles, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer accrued over 800 total ABs and complied just over half the WAR that Frazier put up. They have already upgraded second base by removing Harrison from the mix, if Frazier flounder Reyes or Kramer could take the job. Moran's wasn't as bad as people make it out to be, his BA and OBP were pretty good, he just has to hit with more authority and boost the power number because obviously his HR total is low, and thus his SLG% will have to increase. Bell obviously needs to not have a w month long slump and improve defensively.
No, Moran was horrible when you factor in defense. His .OBP was ok, batting average was extremely empty with a slugging just over .400. There really isn't much room for improvement with him that I see, unless he gains 25 lbs of muscle and can hit 20+ bombs. The month that Brault was in the rotation? Well you are looking at a full season of that type of production from the 5 spot unless they bring someone in. While I'm not a Polanco fan he was our most productive bat last season and I don't see Chisenhall as the answer until he returns. This team is going to be fighting for last place mostly due to the division.




And if Moran doesn't realize the needed boost to production, they have Kang, and if Kang is washed-out, they have Hayes at some point this season.



If the 5 starter is crap through June, they will have Keller. But I think it's likely that Kingham wins the job. I'm not sure why it's assumed that if guys aren't immediately all-stars upon arriving in the majors, that they are destined to failure. Kingham showed a lot, he's a dude that is going to get better with experience.



Polanco is wildy inconsistent, I don't think losing him overall makes much of a dent to the offense.
I'd still rather have Polanco over whoever is going to replace him.



Not really excited about the 5th SP, and I'm against the "wait until Keller gets here" mindset. We've been down that road before. If we begin the season having traded a Fifth Starter and replacing with Wishful Thinking, that is a minus (and an easily avoidable one).



The Moran issues don't really factor into my ideas on whether we'll be better or worse than last year. After all, last season he didn't improve over last season, and we still had the record we did. I'd rather have better production of course but "we're going to be worse because Moran isn't going to improve" makes no logical sense.