OnlyBucs

46-116, but we will be good in 2050. 520 runs.

7A575A4B4C5D4A0A09380 wrote: 46-116, but we will be good in 2050.


You need to list how many runs the team will score.  And you can't say how many they'll score in 2050.
We will give extra credit if he correctly predicts the 2050 runs. 


________

_Hey Bobster, how many $$$$ is the credit worth and when can I get it. Don't kick the can down the road.

415A57565F535C320 wrote: 46-116, but we will be good in 2050.


You need to list how many runs the team will score.  And you can't say how many they'll score in 2050.
We will give extra credit if he correctly predicts the 2050 runs. 


________

_Hey Bobster, how many $$$$ is the credit worth and when can I get it.  Don't kick the can down the road.
The credit is worth an 8 x 10 glossy of Ben Cherington and a copy of his soon to be released book, "I Took This Job Just to Piss Off Shedman."

61-99 with one game not played.



599 runs.

567B76676071662625140 wrote: 46-116, but we will be good in 2050.


You need to list how many runs the team will score.  And you can't say how many they'll score in 2050.
We will give extra credit if he correctly predicts the 2050 runs. 


________

_Hey Bobster, how many $$$$ is the credit worth and when can I get it.  Don't kick the can down the road.
The credit is worth an 8 x 10 glossy of Ben Cherington and a copy of his soon to be released book, "I Took This Job Just to Piss Off Shedman."


I'll take a copy, please.

"PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ version of a projection system, has released their 2021 standings. They have the Pirates in last place in the National League at 61 wins..."

726964656C606F010 wrote: "PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ version of a projection system, has released their 2021 standings.  They have the Pirates in last place in the National League at 61 wins..."


I don't know what kind of voodoo math they're using by I sure can't see 61 wins. Have they looked at the roster?

I don't know what kind of voodoo math they're using by I sure can't see 61 wins. Have they looked at the roster?


I think that it's one of those things where the math isn't adapting quickly enough. There's a strong presumption that teams are trying to improve, and that when things get bad they'll flail about and try to fix things, and that some of those things will work out. I don't think that the models have adapted yet to teams that have decided not to come up for air.

51627E7F7C74427F6478636475797E100 wrote: I don't know what kind of voodoo math they're using by I sure can't see 61 wins.  Have they looked at the roster?


I think that it's one of those things where the math isn't adapting quickly enough. There's a strong presumption that teams are trying to improve, and that when things get bad they'll flail about and try to fix things, and that some of those things will work out.  I don't think that the models have adapted yet to teams that have decided not to come up for air.


Good point. Hard to quantify when teams are working in the opposite direction of trying to win.

7F59584F59493A0 wrote: 61-99 with one game not played.



599 runs.


I think this would be 2 games not played. No matter, I was getting a little sad that at 56-106, mine was looking like the most optimistic projection!