Back in the early 90’s when all the Braves’ games were on TV, I was amazed at how much David Justice crowded the plate. Every bit as much a Rizzo. Justice was quick though, and he could clear his left foot and hip in a hurry and crush an inside pitch. One day he explained his approach was to effectively shrink the strike zone for the pitcher. They didn’t want to pitch him up and in for fear of hitting him. They didn’t want to pitch him down and in which was one of his strengths. It deterred lefties from using the sweeping breaking pitch. His thought was to basically close off the inner half of the plate for the pitcher. Of course standing so close to the plate, pitches on the outer edge were right in his wheelhouse.
The approach worked well for Justice. He had a good career walk rate and astonishingly, was only hit by a pitch 19 times in 6,600 plate appearances. Times have changed and Rizzo has been hit over 100 times in his career. But both Justice and Rizzo are smart hitters who actively tried to influence how they are/were pitched to. I am interested to see how Moran’s approach will succeed over time and if he can develop the power aspect of his game.
Colin Moran
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Colin Moran
For all the talk about developing his power, his current numbers are good even setting aside he's a rookie. Small sample size of course, but if you project it out to .290 with 15 homeruns, that's certainly MLB quality. And if you can get the homeruns up to even 20 with his somewhat stoic defense but a usable arm, it's better than we've had in a long time. It would certainly be nice to not have drama at third base for a change! 
Colin Moran
Yep. If Moran can hold onto his .343 BaBIP and 28% LD rate, he'll be fine.
Colin Moran
777E766769130 wrote: Yep. If Moran can hold onto his .343 BaBIP and 28% LD rate, he'll be fine.
I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic here. Isn't a .343 BABIP abnormally high, indicating some regression to the mean? Or am I off there?
I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic here. Isn't a .343 BABIP abnormally high, indicating some regression to the mean? Or am I off there?
Colin Moran
6F67645345604748260 wrote: Yep. If Moran can hold onto his .343 BaBIP and 28% LD rate, he'll be fine.
I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic here. Isn't a .343 BABIP abnormally high, indicating some regression to the mean? Or am I off there?
Sarcasm, but anxious with him to see what happens. They are both unsustainable. Dog raised interesting questions. Part of why I was trying to dig through his pitch charts and interested in why he crowds, pulls, etc.. is because what he's doing currently is unsustainable.
right now, he's 10% HR/FB, which is ho-hum. normal. his FB rate is OK. If when his LD rate comes back down to earth, most of that goes over to FB% AND he can pull 10-15% more than so far... there's a possibility to get the power numbers I'm hoping for. like 25 HR / yr type numbers. IDk with this guy. I wish he wasn't already 25yrs old and I wish his minor league numbers were better.
wait and see, I guess. Aspects of it look good, other aspects look worrisome to me. I'm a hard grader, and want good not just OK
I can't tell if you're serious or sarcastic here. Isn't a .343 BABIP abnormally high, indicating some regression to the mean? Or am I off there?
Sarcasm, but anxious with him to see what happens. They are both unsustainable. Dog raised interesting questions. Part of why I was trying to dig through his pitch charts and interested in why he crowds, pulls, etc.. is because what he's doing currently is unsustainable.
right now, he's 10% HR/FB, which is ho-hum. normal. his FB rate is OK. If when his LD rate comes back down to earth, most of that goes over to FB% AND he can pull 10-15% more than so far... there's a possibility to get the power numbers I'm hoping for. like 25 HR / yr type numbers. IDk with this guy. I wish he wasn't already 25yrs old and I wish his minor league numbers were better.
wait and see, I guess. Aspects of it look good, other aspects look worrisome to me. I'm a hard grader, and want good not just OK
Colin Moran
As of June 1st of the 9 qualifying NL 3bman:
Moran has the lowest Pull% (39.2) highest opposite field % (33.1) and the 2nd to lowest hard contact rate (30%).
As the sample has increased:
- the pull rate has decreased just a touch (39.2)
-the BaBIP has normalized (.310 down from .343)
-as has the LD%(25.4% down from 28)
Unfortunately, as the line drive rate came down, the GB rate has been what increased (40%) and Moran is now statistically a slight GB hitter. Exit velocities are below average. His contact rate is very good. His hit profile looks like it did in the minors PRIOR to last years "swing change". None of last years changes have held or are holding.
Moran has to change his hitting approach, or he will be a backup quality, and one with a subpar glove, at that.
[hr]
The defensive and baserunning metrics hate him, but it's too small a sample for them to have any real accuracy. Defensively, every metric hates him, not just UZR. his DP rate sucks, his range sucks, error rate is below average. Total Zone rating hates him worse than UZR.
My eyes like him about the same as the defensive stats, but I know I'm biased against him and want him to fail so that's not a fair assessment. His colleague across the Diamond, Mr. Bell, is in an even worse situation but that's another episode.
My summary:
Kang Kang Kang Kang Kang Kang !!
Moran has the lowest Pull% (39.2) highest opposite field % (33.1) and the 2nd to lowest hard contact rate (30%).
As the sample has increased:
- the pull rate has decreased just a touch (39.2)
-the BaBIP has normalized (.310 down from .343)
-as has the LD%(25.4% down from 28)
Unfortunately, as the line drive rate came down, the GB rate has been what increased (40%) and Moran is now statistically a slight GB hitter. Exit velocities are below average. His contact rate is very good. His hit profile looks like it did in the minors PRIOR to last years "swing change". None of last years changes have held or are holding.
Moran has to change his hitting approach, or he will be a backup quality, and one with a subpar glove, at that.
[hr]
The defensive and baserunning metrics hate him, but it's too small a sample for them to have any real accuracy. Defensively, every metric hates him, not just UZR. his DP rate sucks, his range sucks, error rate is below average. Total Zone rating hates him worse than UZR.
My eyes like him about the same as the defensive stats, but I know I'm biased against him and want him to fail so that's not a fair assessment. His colleague across the Diamond, Mr. Bell, is in an even worse situation but that's another episode.
My summary:
Kang Kang Kang Kang Kang Kang !!
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Colin Moran
In 1969 rookie Richie Hebner hit .301 8 homers 47 rbi and 23 doubles. As of today Colin Moran is hitting.274 with 8 homers 37 rbi and 13 doubles. Moran is not hitting for the high batting average as did Hebner, but the other stats should be very comparable at seasons end.
Colin Moran
4F4342191019111C1B041E290 wrote: In 1969 rookie Richie Hebner hit .301 8 homers 47 rbi and 23 doubles. As of today Colin Moran is hitting.274 with 8 homers 37 rbi and 13 doubles. Moran is not hitting for the high batting average as did Hebner, but the other stats should be very comparable at seasons end.
Also like Hebner (but worse) Moran is not good defensively. It took a few years, but Hebner ended up playing a lot of 1B. I think Moran probably needs to follow that route only sooner.
Also like Hebner (but worse) Moran is not good defensively. It took a few years, but Hebner ended up playing a lot of 1B. I think Moran probably needs to follow that route only sooner.
Colin Moran
6C60613A333A323F38273D0A0 wrote: In 1969 rookie Richie Hebner hit .301 8 homers 47 rbi and 23 doubles. As of today Colin Moran is hitting.274 with 8 homers 37 rbi and 13 doubles. Moran is not hitting for the high batting average as did Hebner, but the other stats should be very comparable at seasons end.
moran is a replacement level player. He's doing the things he needs to do in order to succeed worse now than a month ago.
But sure. Somebody back in 1960 did something and that's all we need to know
moran is a replacement level player. He's doing the things he needs to do in order to succeed worse now than a month ago.
But sure. Somebody back in 1960 did something and that's all we need to know
Colin Moran
79707869671D0 wrote: In 1969 rookie Richie Hebner hit .301 8 homers 47 rbi and 23 doubles. As of today Colin Moran is hitting.274 with 8 homers 37 rbi and 13 doubles. Moran is not hitting for the high batting average as did Hebner, but the other stats should be very comparable at seasons end.
moran is a replacement level player. He's doing the things he needs to do in order to succeed worse now than a month ago.
But sure. Somebody back in 1960 did something and that's all we need to know
He had a total of 34 MLB at bats going into this season. He is a bit old for a rookie at 25, but he basically had no major league experience. I think he is having a really solid season as he is figuring it all out. There is certainly lots of room for improvement.
If he was in his 3rd or 4th season in the majors I'd be ready to call him replacement level. Not at this point.
moran is a replacement level player. He's doing the things he needs to do in order to succeed worse now than a month ago.
But sure. Somebody back in 1960 did something and that's all we need to know
He had a total of 34 MLB at bats going into this season. He is a bit old for a rookie at 25, but he basically had no major league experience. I think he is having a really solid season as he is figuring it all out. There is certainly lots of room for improvement.
If he was in his 3rd or 4th season in the majors I'd be ready to call him replacement level. Not at this point.