has the Pirates at 81-81 and tied with the Reds (about what a bunch of people are feeling). The surprise to me was that they only had the Cubs one game better.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... team-2019/
"The case for the 82-80 Cubs, only a game ahead of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh:
What PECOTA’s projecting is a really, really tight NL Central, with eight games separating the top from the bottom. One game out of last place in the Central isn’t like being a game out of last place in, say, any of the American League divisions. Two or three wins here or there—that’s a variation of less than two percent over 162 games—can alter the order a lot.
There are still some free agents available (I can think of a few in particular) whose addition could add three or four wins to a team’s projection. Not that the Cubs seem likely to pursue them, but still.
Let’s look at the Cubs’ division. The Brewers signed Yasmani Grandal. The Cardinals signed Andrew Miller and traded for Paul Goldschmidt. The Reds have added Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray along with Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Even the toss-around-nickels-like-they’re-manhole-covers Pirates signed Lonnie Chisenhall and Jordan Lyles.
The Cubs? Well, they swapped out Tommy La Stella for Daniel Descalso and signed Brad Brach for a year.
Meanwhile, they Cubs had the NL’s oldest pitching staff last year. The rotation looks like Jon Lester (in his age-35 season), Jose Quintana (30), Cole Hamels (35), Kyle Hendricks (29), and Yu Darvish (32). The closer will be … Brandon Morrow (34)? Pedro Strop (34)? Steve Cishek (32)? Brach (33)? PECOTA, fully cognizant of aging curves, is projecting these old hurlers surrendering 730 runs in 2019 compared to 645 in 2018, over half a run more per game. It sees the team scoring 739 runs, less than a tenth of a run fewer per game. The pessimism is based on those aging pitchers."
baseball prospectus PECOTA predictions.
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SammyKhalifa
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OrlandoMerced
baseball prospectus PECOTA predictions.
The Cubs are still very deep and will be contenders this year. I think Baez is good, but he's not going to be putting up MVP numbers again. they will get more from Bryant in 2019, but also then less from Baez and probably less from Schwarber who had a great year last year as well. Hamels isn't going to give them 75 innings of ace quality innings this year either.
But, these are just paper comparisons. We need to get into 2019 to see how things are going to play out. I think out of the Brewers, Cards and Cubs, one team is going to be be irrelevant, I don't know which.
But, these are just paper comparisons. We need to get into 2019 to see how things are going to play out. I think out of the Brewers, Cards and Cubs, one team is going to be be irrelevant, I don't know which.
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CarolinaBucco
baseball prospectus PECOTA predictions.
I find it very difficult to believe the Pirates will be just 1 game back of the Cubs.
Honestly I find it very difficult to believe that by the All-Star Break the Pirates will be within 10 games of the Cards, Cubs and Brewers.
Our starting pitching is good ... compared to the rest of our roster. But it's not ELITE and there are a lot of question marks and unknowns. My point is I don't believe our starting pitching is good enough to carry an otherwise average to bad lineup.
Hope I'm wrong.
Honestly I find it very difficult to believe that by the All-Star Break the Pirates will be within 10 games of the Cards, Cubs and Brewers.
Our starting pitching is good ... compared to the rest of our roster. But it's not ELITE and there are a lot of question marks and unknowns. My point is I don't believe our starting pitching is good enough to carry an otherwise average to bad lineup.
Hope I'm wrong.