Is NH just getting bashed now?

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CarolinaBucco

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by CarolinaBucco »

I always said and I will always believe the 2015 was built to win it all and was clearly good enough to win it all.



It was built to win a 7-game series.



The one flaw was that it was not built to win a 1-game playoff, because we didn't have an ELITE No. 1 starter capable of matching another ELITE No. 1 starter by matching zeros for 9 innings. We just didn't have anyone to compare to a Bumgarner or an Arietta.



But that Pirates team was a genuinely great team that, if it could have survived the Wild Card game, could have very realistically won it all. Such a shame.
Bobster21

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by Bobster21 »

I think some NH bashing is certainly in order. After all, the organization saw fit to fire him. He did a nice job of building them up through 2015. Kudos to him for that. But it was 2016-2019 that got him fired.



Even the good 2013-2015 relied on Littlefield holdovers Cutch, Marte and Walker. NH added some quality veterans in Martin, Burnett and Liriano. Volquez was added in 2014 as was the vastly overrated Polanco. Meanwhile they were trying to get by with the problematic Locke and Morton in the rotation and a gaping hole at 1B with guys like Gary Sanchez and Ike Davis. The 2015 team was their best. They replaced Martin with Cervelli, added Kang and moved Alvarez to 1B where found another position to butcher before releasing their former #1 pick a year later. They were fortunate that Happ was a last minute emergency replacement at the TDL for the injured Burnett and Happ, who had struggled for several years, suddenly turned his career around and became dominant. Then they let him walk while adding a washed up Vogelsong while also trading Walker for an ineffective Niese and filling the hole at 1B by creating another hole with Jaso.



Meanwhile, NH was not adding much to the pipeline, which was a necessity since Nutting was not going to pay to keep their veterans very long. The 2010 draft had added only Taillon to the pipeline. Kingham was the only other player of note in that draft and he was grossly overrated. 2011 was a good draft with Cole, Bell, Alex Dickerson, Holmes and Glasnow. But NH traded Dickerson for Jaff Decker and Miles Mikolas, who he then traded for Chris ("Who?) McGuiness. The only player to contribute from the 2012 draft is Stallings. The 2013 draft yielded Meadows, McGuire, Jacoby Jones, Frazier and Kuhl. McGuire was given to Toronto so they would take Liriano's contract off Nutting's hands. Jones has a low ceiling and was effectively used to acquire Soria for 2 months. The highlight of the 2014 draft is Keller and Tucker. And Tucker's future with the club looks shaky. The 2015 draft yielded Hayes, which looks like a great pick. Otherwise that draft is notable only for Newman, Kramer and Brubaker. None are certain to have an impact. The 2016 draft picked Will Craig #1. Blake Cederlind is the only pick from that draft with a chance to contribute. The jury is still out on subsequent drafts as they are too recent to show results. But Shane Baz was #1 in 2017. During those bleak draft years, NH did acquire Reynolds as a prospect. Also Brault, Crick, Moran, Feliz, Martin and Musgrove. But the Cole trade was quantity instead of quality. Brault has had limited success and only Reynolds looks like a valuable acquisition.



So even while the 2013-15 teams were having success, NH was doing a poor job of drafting for the future and ripped the organization apart with the insane Archer trade. NH was hamstrung by his cheap owner but strong drafting and solid player evaluation and development would have been a strategy not dependent on Nutting's cobweb covered checkbook. Instead, the NH regime was notable for weak drafts, overrating or poorly developing players (Polanco, Kingham) or not realizing talent when they had it (Meadows, Glasnow, Baz).
Ecbucs
Posts: 4356
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by Ecbucs »

527F72636475622221100 wrote: I think some NH bashing is certainly in order. After all, the organization saw fit to fire him. He did a nice job of building them up through 2015. Kudos to him for that. But it was 2016-2019 that got him fired.



Even the good 2013-2015 relied on Littlefield holdovers Cutch, Marte and Walker. NH added some quality veterans in Martin, Burnett and Liriano. Volquez was added in 2014 as was the vastly overrated Polanco. Meanwhile they were trying to get by with the problematic Locke and Morton in the rotation and a gaping hole at 1B with guys like Gary Sanchez and Ike Davis. The 2015 team was their best. They replaced Martin with Cervelli, added Kang and moved Alvarez to 1B where found another position to butcher before releasing their former #1 pick a year later. They were fortunate that Happ was a last minute emergency replacement at the TDL for the injured Burnett and Happ, who had struggled for several years, suddenly turned his career around and became dominant. Then they let him walk while adding a washed up Vogelsong while also trading Walker for an ineffective Niese and filling the hole at 1B by creating another hole with Jaso.



Meanwhile, NH was not adding much to the pipeline, which was a necessity since Nutting was not going to pay to keep their veterans very long. The 2010 draft had added only Taillon to the pipeline. Kingham was the only other player of note in that draft and he was grossly overrated. 2011 was a good draft with Cole, Bell, Alex Dickerson, Holmes and Glasnow. But NH traded Dickerson for Jaff Decker and Miles Mikolas, who he then traded for Chris ("Who?) McGuiness. The only player to contribute from the 2012 draft is Stallings. The 2013 draft yielded Meadows, McGuire, Jacoby Jones, Frazier and Kuhl. McGuire was given to Toronto so they would take Liriano's contract off Nutting's hands. Jones has a low ceiling and was effectively used to acquire Soria for 2 months. The highlight of the 2014 draft is Keller and Tucker. And Tucker's future with the club looks shaky. The 2015 draft yielded Hayes, which looks like a great pick. Otherwise that draft is notable only for Newman, Kramer and Brubaker. None are certain to have an impact. The 2016 draft picked Will Craig #1. Blake Cederlind is the only pick from that draft with a chance to contribute. The jury is still out on subsequent drafts as they are too recent to show results. But Shane Baz was #1 in 2017. During those bleak draft years, NH did acquire Reynolds as a prospect. Also Brault, Crick, Moran, Feliz, Martin and Musgrove. But the Cole trade was quantity instead of quality. Brault has had limited success and only Reynolds looks like a valuable acquisition.



So even while the 2013-15 teams were having success, NH was doing a poor job of drafting for the future and ripped the organization apart with the insane Archer trade. NH was hamstrung by his cheap owner but strong drafting and solid player evaluation and development would have been a strategy not dependent on Nutting's cobweb covered checkbook. Instead, the NH regime was notable for weak drafts, overrating or poorly developing players (Polanco, Kingham) or not realizing talent when they had it (Meadows, Glasnow, Baz).   




I think this is correct. I've seen some argue that 2016 was unavoidable due to poor performance of Cutch, Liriano and a couple others, however, the team was not able to bounce back in 2017 and that should have been the end for NH.
skinnyhorse
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:19 am

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by skinnyhorse »

1E38392E38285B0 wrote: I think some NH bashing is certainly in order. After all, the organization saw fit to fire him. He did a nice job of building them up through 2015. Kudos to him for that. But it was 2016-2019 that got him fired.



Even the good 2013-2015 relied on Littlefield holdovers Cutch, Marte and Walker. NH added some quality veterans in Martin, Burnett and Liriano. Volquez was added in 2014 as was the vastly overrated Polanco. Meanwhile they were trying to get by with the problematic Locke and Morton in the rotation and a gaping hole at 1B with guys like Gary Sanchez and Ike Davis. The 2015 team was their best. They replaced Martin with Cervelli, added Kang and moved Alvarez to 1B where found another position to butcher before releasing their former #1 pick a year later. They were fortunate that Happ was a last minute emergency replacement at the TDL for the injured Burnett and Happ, who had struggled for several years, suddenly turned his career around and became dominant. Then they let him walk while adding a washed up Vogelsong while also trading Walker for an ineffective Niese and filling the hole at 1B by creating another hole with Jaso.



Meanwhile, NH was not adding much to the pipeline, which was a necessity since Nutting was not going to pay to keep their veterans very long. The 2010 draft had added only Taillon to the pipeline. Kingham was the only other player of note in that draft and he was grossly overrated. 2011 was a good draft with Cole, Bell, Alex Dickerson, Holmes and Glasnow. But NH traded Dickerson for Jaff Decker and Miles Mikolas, who he then traded for Chris ("Who?) McGuiness. The only player to contribute from the 2012 draft is Stallings. The 2013 draft yielded Meadows, McGuire, Jacoby Jones, Frazier and Kuhl. McGuire was given to Toronto so they would take Liriano's contract off Nutting's hands. Jones has a low ceiling and was effectively used to acquire Soria for 2 months. The highlight of the 2014 draft is Keller and Tucker. And Tucker's future with the club looks shaky. The 2015 draft yielded Hayes, which looks like a great pick. Otherwise that draft is notable only for Newman, Kramer and Brubaker. None are certain to have an impact. The 2016 draft picked Will Craig #1. Blake Cederlind is the only pick from that draft with a chance to contribute. The jury is still out on subsequent drafts as they are too recent to show results. But Shane Baz was #1 in 2017. During those bleak draft years, NH did acquire Reynolds as a prospect. Also Brault, Crick, Moran, Feliz, Martin and Musgrove. But the Cole trade was quantity instead of quality. Brault has had limited success and only Reynolds looks like a valuable acquisition.



So even while the 2013-15 teams were having success, NH was doing a poor job of drafting for the future and ripped the organization apart with the insane Archer trade. NH was hamstrung by his cheap owner but strong drafting and solid player evaluation and development would have been a strategy not dependent on Nutting's cobweb covered checkbook. Instead, the NH regime was notable for weak drafts, overrating or poorly developing players (Polanco, Kingham) or not realizing talent when they had it (Meadows, Glasnow, Baz).   




I think this is correct.  I've seen some argue that 2016 was unavoidable due to poor performance of Cutch, Liriano and a couple others, however, the team was not able to bounce back in 2017 and that should have been the end for NH.


I strongly agree with 2017 should have been NH last season with the Bucs.  Unfortunately the owner has little baseball knowledge and apparently no one who can independently evaluate his leadership team so we hang on to NH even after the disastrous Glasnow trade until it was obvious to everyone NH couldn't recognize nor develop talent.  Incompetence can not be tolerated and we must be willing to admit mistakes and correct them quickly or we're always going to be losers in a highly competitive market.  Sitting an watching the last few years of CH and his coaching staff was like torture for me.  I was sure not impressed with Shelton's first year, if we see more of the same this year I would hope he'll be gone by mid August, just was awful last year.
shedman
Posts: 1896
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:06 am

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by shedman »

The only difference I see between NH and BC is that NH is gone(so he is fair game) and BC is here.
Bobster21

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by Bobster21 »

342C2E29293E2F28353422470 wrote:



I strongly agree with 2017 should have been NH last season with the Bucs.  Unfortunately the owner has little baseball knowledge and apparently no one who can independently evaluate his leadership team so we hang on to NH even after the disastrous Glasnow trade until it was obvious to everyone NH couldn't recognize nor develop talent.  Incompetence can not be tolerated and we must be willing to admit mistakes and correct them quickly or we're always going to be losers in a highly competitive market.  Sitting an watching the last few years of CH and his coaching staff was like torture for me.  I was sure not impressed with Shelton's first year, if we see more of the same this year I would hope he'll be gone by mid August, just was awful last year.
Yeah, I can give BC a pass last year for the circumstances of his late hiring and the severe impact of the pandemic on spring training and the major and minor league seasons. But I have a huge problem with his hiring of Shelton. Shelton was awful. It's not about wins and losses because he didn't have a competitive roster. But it's how he used his roster that was concerning. Maybe he'll manage a little smarter this year. If not, he needs to go. We all know the limitations imposed on the team by Nutting. So to have any chance of winning, they need a shrewd GM in developing a roster and a clever manager who uses his players to get the most he can from them. Shelton didn't do that.
Ecbucs
Posts: 4356
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by Ecbucs »

604D40515647501013220 wrote:



I strongly agree with 2017 should have been NH last season with the Bucs.  Unfortunately the owner has little baseball knowledge and apparently no one who can independently evaluate his leadership team so we hang on to NH even after the disastrous Glasnow trade until it was obvious to everyone NH couldn't recognize nor develop talent.  Incompetence can not be tolerated and we must be willing to admit mistakes and correct them quickly or we're always going to be losers in a highly competitive market.  Sitting an watching the last few years of CH and his coaching staff was like torture for me.  I was sure not impressed with Shelton's first year, if we see more of the same this year I would hope he'll be gone by mid August, just was awful last year.
Yeah, I can give BC a pass last year for the circumstances of his late hiring and the severe impact of the pandemic on spring training and the major and minor league seasons. But I have a huge problem with his hiring of Shelton. Shelton was awful. It's not about wins and losses because he didn't have a competitive roster. But it's how he used his roster that was concerning. Maybe he'll manage a little smarter this year. If not, he needs to go. We all know the limitations imposed on the team by Nutting. So to have any chance of winning, they need a shrewd GM in developing a roster and a clever manager who uses his players to get the most he can from them. Shelton didn't do that.




I am curious about Shelton this year too. I wonder how much of last year was dictated to him. Was he ordered to play Tucker in the outfield and give Gonzalez most of time at short? Not to mention, the number of times Bell played at first when he could have been DH and the use of the pitching staff.
mouse
Posts: 1763
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:46 pm

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by mouse »

I suspect I am one of maybe two or three most ardent optimists on this board but I wasn't bothered at all by Tucker in center. Teams seem to want versatility these days. The Dodgers are famous for it. So Tucker getting experience somewhere else didn't bother me. I read the setup this way -- Tucker would be shortstop if he could hit. The team needed to know if he could. They already knew he was gold-glove level there defensively. What they did need to know is who would play there if Tucker couldn't hit. So Tucker was in center primarily to get him ML at bats so an intelligent decision could be made. Gonzales and whoever else spotted at short to see who the runner-up would be (and whether that person could hit). BC wanted to see what he had. That's what he said before the season -- a season to evaluate -- and that's what he did (or tried to do). This year, I think, we see the conclusions he's reached.
2drfischer@gmail.c

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

393B212731540 wrote: I suspect I am one of maybe two or three most ardent optimists on this board but I wasn't bothered at all by Tucker in center. Teams seem to want versatility these days. The Dodgers are famous for it. So Tucker getting experience somewhere else didn't bother me. I read the setup this way -- Tucker would be shortstop if he could hit. The team needed to know if he could. They already knew he was gold-glove level there defensively. What they did need to know is who would play there if Tucker couldn't hit. So Tucker was in center primarily to get him ML at bats so an intelligent decision could be made. Gonzales and whoever else spotted at short to see who the runner-up would be (and whether that person could hit). BC wanted to see what he had. That's what he said before the season -- a season to evaluate -- and that's what he did (or tried to do). This year, I think, we see the conclusions he's reached.


I could buy that explanation, mouse, if Tucker would've had more at bats. He only had about 25 more than Hayes, who came to the team late in the season. Tucker didn't play as much as he should have, and there has to be a reason for that, especially if management was trying to determine if he could be a big league hitter. Otherwise, they wasted a year evaluating him. Perhaps it's because they've already determined he's not going to be good enough, even if he were to become an outstanding defensive SS.
ArnoldRothstein

Is NH just getting bashed now?

Post by ArnoldRothstein »

The 2010 draft had added only Taillon to the pipeline. Kingham was the only other player of note in that draft and he was grossly overrated. 2011 was a good draft with Cole, Bell, Alex Dickerson, Holmes and Glasnow. But NH traded Dickerson for Jaff Decker and Miles Mikolas, who he then traded for Chris ("Who?) McGuiness


This is near the crux of what I'm thinking about. Obviously, in the long run talent didn't reach the majors. But what I'm seeing quite a bit of lately  is:  (a) NH was focused on collecting major league-ready guys; and, (b) that he neglected the lower minors or young prospects.  I think that when breaking down the 2007 team, his trades brought in a mix of failed prospects and blocked guys, but he also brought in legitimate (younger) prospects.



While Cherington is currently filling up the lower part of the system by trade, NH did the same thing by drafting. It's true that Taillon might be the only MLB value in the 2010 draft. But they also signed Stetson Allie for $2.2 million, which was mid-first round money that year. And then there were five guys, including Kingham, who got between $400k and $485k.  That was equivalent to supplemental second or high third round money.  The 2008 draft missed signing Tanner Scheppers, but gave Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller supplemental first round money. The 2009 draft had 9 guys that got paid equivalent to mid-third round or better.  2011 only had six of those guys, but one was Bell, whose signing was one of the main reasons MLB and the union decided to end competition via the draft. So I think it was clear that NH was trying to get high-ceiling talent into the lower minors, though most of it actually topped out as lottery tickets.
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