2B222A3B354F0 wrote: to me, it's understandable that fans treat Polanco differently. He's been doing this for years and he's a poor fundamental player. He's never put up overall value.
He's also been endlessly pumped up by the org. So when his game continues to be suspect, fans get frustrated more than someone who's hardly been here (Dickerson) or has played very well for a substantial number of years (marte) or has had a big impact as a young rookie in 30 some games (Meadows).
When Polanco was in meadows' shoes, fans were raving.
I'm going to take a guess that if Meadows ends up with 2000 at bats and 4.5 WAR to show for it, fans will quickly turn on him too. And meadows is actually a pretty good defender and can play CF. Something Polanco never really had (ability to play CF)
That's not exactly true, though. He did put up starter value in both 2015 and 2016 despite not being the hitter we hoped. He wasn't good last year. This year, the part of the game that is most objective and verifiable, offense, is better for Polanco than anything he has ever done. He's improving. Yet, people have taken every opportunity to needle his game. His overall value looks weak because of defensive metrics. If he were putting up the same defensive metrics as previous years, he's a 1.5-1.7 WAR player at the halfway point of the season. Maybe this 26-year-old guy suddenly can't play defense and his low WAR will continue until he's a 900 OPS hitter, but I'm not ready to conclude that and I'm surprised at everyone who has been so quick to get down on him.
I understand what you're saying, but he's only really had 1 season by WAR where he was a solid starter, and that was 2015 at 2.6. That was actually defense assisted. His OPS was .701 that year.
Every other season he's had varying degrees of OK defensive value though not too bad. Not enough that I thought he was bad. This year, it's been about twice as bad so I agree it's weird and questionable what is going on defensively this year. There's a lot of disparity between Fangraphs and BRef with his WAR ratings.
Check out his range rate this year with fangraphs. -5.2. Killing his UZR so far this year. DRS hates him too at a -6 so far. The defensive numbers are off the charts bad because of his crazy bad range numbers this year. I don't know what to make of it or how a healthy player "showing upin the best shape of his life" could possibly go from decent range to worst in baseball in 6 months.
However, even that being said, the B-refernce OWar numbers don't support that he's ever had a good offensive season for a right fielder. I guess 1.6 in 2016 would be the low side of average. maybe.
2015 he was 92 w/RC+
2016 he was 106 W/RC+
2017 he was 81 w/RC+
2018 he is now 119 w/RC+ and it's all Pedro Alvarez. a few weeks of bashing with a couple months of absolutely nothing mixed in.
I admit I have no good guess what kind of hitter he will be next week, let alone next year. He's hot now, play him everyday and see what happens. Just how about we don't bat him 2nd for a month if/when he totally disappears again?
Yeah, Polanco's defensive metrics are interesting. Not only are certain metrics way below past performance, but the metrics don't really even agree this season. For instance, basic range factor places Polanco fifth in the NL this year among right fielders even though the Pirates don't really have a fly ball oriented pitching staff. Total zone says Polanco has been four runs saved above average. DRS doesn't like him at all but it doesn't like Marte or Meadows either. In fact, there seems to be a common discrepancy among Pirates outfielders. May be an issue with the measurements and not the players.
Polanco -- A Distressed Asset
Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster
Polanco -- A Distressed Asset
DRS loves Dickerson as does UZR
Marte is about even with UZR. DRS is in line with what he did last year in CF. below average.
Meadows has terrible UZR and DRS numbers so far everywhere he plays, in a tiny sample.
Considering how well Rodriguez and Frazier grade out in LF the past 2 years, it seems like LF is the outlier. Something about the defensive metrics makes whoever is playing LF for us look like a defensive wiz. (meadows excepted)
Marte is about even with UZR. DRS is in line with what he did last year in CF. below average.
Meadows has terrible UZR and DRS numbers so far everywhere he plays, in a tiny sample.
Considering how well Rodriguez and Frazier grade out in LF the past 2 years, it seems like LF is the outlier. Something about the defensive metrics makes whoever is playing LF for us look like a defensive wiz. (meadows excepted)