Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

general

Moderators: SammyKhalifa, Doc, Bobster

PMike
Posts: 843
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 9:29 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by PMike »

49404859572D0 wrote: I guess some people have to stick to nonsense as long as possible. Polanco isn’t just hitting now. He has a season OPS+ of 119 just as he did when many started complaining about him. He’s been the best offensive player this season on the team of qualifying players. The notion that the Pirates should have sent him to AAA at some point seriously defies all reason.  And Sammy is right in that Marte is in as bad a slump right now as anything Polanco experienced but nobody is crying to send him down to find his swing.


That's a tough analysis.  He has no ancillary value so when his bat vanished for a month he was a negative player.  Yep, his OPS+ is 119 now after heating back up.   It all depends on when you want to dip the measuring stick into the water, I guess. 



Polanco is 0.2 WAR half way through the season.  So he's "on pace" for about 0.5 for the season, maybe 1.0.   He's such a streaky hitter, hard to know what the final season- long outcome will be or what real "pace" is.  If he ends up ripping 25-30 HRs, he's going to end up with solid starter overall numbers in right regardless of the rest of his game.



Marte is at 1.6 WAR right now, despite his terrible month.   This is because he has, you know, ancillary value.  (defense, baserunning (steals in his case))  He's not completely worthless when he's not hitting well.    However his hitting has been so poor since returning from his injury that I'm all in favor of getting him on the bench, since meadows is capable of playing CF.



Perhaps when players with no defensive or baserunning value go into the tank for 3 weeks or a month at a time, they shouldn't be in the lineup regularly... and when they're hot they should definitely be in the lineup regularly?



What I haven't seen is any evidence that all the ample rest has had any effect on our outfielders.   If anything, there appears to be a negative correlation with rest vs hitting numbers when it comes to our outfielders.      Also OPS+ is only adjusted for park, not for position.   If you have a CF with the same OPS+ as a RF you've got a better CF than you do a RF, all else being the same.  Although that definitely doesn't matter from building a batting order standpoint...


My points were offensive only.  I'm not suggesting Polanco is a better value player than Marte.  With that said, however, Polanco's defensive metrics this season are way below his previous career numbers and that is totally responsible for his overall WAR number this year.  I'm not really buying that he's become such a defensive liabilty, so I think his true value is significantly better than his WAR to date.




I'm unsure.  Not ruling what you're saying out.  It's odd that his defense is showing up so poorly this year on the stat sheet.  Really UZR and DRS can't be used in such a small sample anyway, but in this case, he looks like crap to me too this year.  Although he has looked better lately.     I have not considered him a bad defender until this year.  Clumsy but rangy to make up for it.   This year, he has looked different to me.  



With his SB's completely disappearing, I wonder if he has lost speed due to the continuous hamstring issues, and thereby costing him range.  If not top-end speed, perhaps he's lost first-step explosion?   




I think you exactly right. And the loss of that speed and first step takes a lot of his game from him. I have also wondered if his hamstring issues are also the cause of his problems at the plate. I have wondered if he moves from his shorter swing that is effective to the ridiculous, long, looping swing when his hamstrings aren't right because he is over compensating, either realistically or mentally. Didn't he admit last year that he played through injuries? If he is doing that again this year, it is absolutely insane when you have 3 other OFers who are more or less performing.
Wrathchild
Posts: 152
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:23 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by Wrathchild »

0F222F3E39283F7F7C4D0 wrote: I guess some people have to stick to nonsense as long as possible. Polanco isn’t just hitting now. He has a season OPS+ of 119 just as he did when many started complaining about him. He’s been the best offensive player this season on the team of qualifying players. The notion that the Pirates should have sent him to AAA at some point seriously defies all reason.  And Sammy is right in that Marte is in as bad a slump right now as anything Polanco experienced but nobody is crying to send him down to find his swing.
Gee whiz, I'm terrible sorry to bother you with my nonsense and my notion that seriously defies all reason. Allow me to explain what could have led me to such insanity. In the 9 week period from April 13 thru June 16, Polanco did this:



AB 173

Hits 32

BA .185

OBP .280

SLG .324

OPS .604



Hurdle talked about his swing which was shorter in the 1st 2 weeks of the season but had returned to the long, looping swing that always caused him problems. Polanco was instructed to move back away from the plate to better square up the ball. But that is a significant adjustment because different positioning at the plate gives a different look to every pitch. It took awhile but Polanco seems to have mastered the changes and is now raking. Polanco didn't have to prove he could hit MLB pitching. He had to learn a new approach to hitting. Working on those mechanical issues could have been done at the AAA level so that he could have returned ready to be productive instead of being an anchor for 9 weeks as he struggled to master a new hitting approach. The team was struggling during Polanco's 9 weeks of not hitting, with a 26-32 records in that stretch. Much of that time they were rotating him with 3 more productive hitters so that they rarely had their best lineup on the field.



But I totally see your point, Wrathchild. Polanco is currently hitting very well and if we ignore those 9 consecutive weeks of poor hitting during which he worked on a new hitting approach, his overall stats don't look bad. And hey, what's a measly 9 weeks out of the season while your right fielder hits .185/.280/.324/.604? As long as he's hitting now, we can pretend those other 9 weeks didn't even happen. Now that's a completely sensible notion! Thanks for helping me see the light.  ::)


What you're arguing is beyond absurd.  Your nine week "streak" not only ignores the surrounding four plus weeks, but it also ignores that he wasn't awful for the entire nine weeks you've selected.  For instance, from May 1st through May 18th, he slashed .294/.389/.549.



You act like Hurdle and Huntington have a magic 8 ball they can consult to see if and when a guy is going to perform well that day, week or month.



The fact is that he has the best OPS on the team this season of qualifying batters and only a fool would try to parse out his statistics to show the Pirates were stupid not to send him back to AAA at some point.
First of all Wrathchild, thanks for being such a mature poster. If you don't agree with me, you call my opinions "nonsense, "defying logic" and "beyond absurd." So thanks for that. Now as to your criticisms, of course Poanco's 9 week slump ignores the 2 weeks before and the 2 weeks since.  That's why they call it a slump. If you want to tell me something useful, explain to me why there was nothing wrong with playing a RFer for 9 weeks with slash line of .185/.280/.324/.604 and why it would have been "beyond absurd" to let him get straightened out in AAA. And that slash line is actually inflated by a modest streak in early May.



I agree with you that his OPS is now tops on the team. He had a great first 2 weeks of the season and has been raking the past 2 weeks. That's great but it certainly was not the way he was hitting for the vast period in between. Had he spent time in AAA honing his hitting approach instead of bringing his numbers downward until recently, his OPS would no doubt be even better. But Hurdle kept sending him back put there until he mastered the new hitting approach they wanted him to work on and he turned things around. Ok fine. Obviously Hurdle and NH felt it was acceptable to let the team suffer until Polanco got straightened out instead of a temporary assignment to AAA where he would still have gotten straightened out without the team carrying a hole in the batting order for a long time. And I get that you're ok with that Wrathchild, as is your right. I would not insult you merely because you would take a different approach than me to fix a significant problem. But apparently anyone who would have taken a different course of action than you is nonsensical, defying logic and beyond absurd because it's not what you would have done. I admire your inflated opinion of yourself and anxiously await your next insults.




You decided to make the argument, once again, that the idiotic Pirates didn't send Polanco to AAA despite the fact that he's been overall the best offensive player on the team of those that have a qualifying number of plate appearances. I didn't make you say that. That opinion is nonsense and defies reason. The guy is a four year veteran that essentially was great for two weeks, terrible for two weeks, very good again for nearly three weeks, crappy for four weeks and now great again for a couple weeks. You don't send that particular guy down to AAA. Nobody does.



As for your whining about my maturity, it was you with the rolling eyes emoji and otherwise condescending post when I took your opiunion (without directly quoting you) to task. I'm sorry I hurt your feelings Bobster. If there was adequate emoji available to me, I'd surely use it.
OrlandoMerced

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by OrlandoMerced »

Maybe he's not stealing in order to keep the hamstrings healthy.



I don't believe Polanco is able to turn on the inside pitch and that will forever limit his ceiling as a left handed power hitter. I'm curious to see how the league adjust to his new approach.
SammyKhalifa
Posts: 3630
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by SammyKhalifa »

6C656D7C72080 wrote: I guess some people have to stick to nonsense as long as possible. Polanco isn’t just hitting now. He has a season OPS+ of 119 just as he did when many started complaining about him. He’s been the best offensive player this season on the team of qualifying players. The notion that the Pirates should have sent him to AAA at some point seriously defies all reason.  And Sammy is right in that Marte is in as bad a slump right now as anything Polanco experienced but nobody is crying to send him down to find his swing.
Gee whiz, I'm terrible sorry to bother you with my nonsense and my notion that seriously defies all reason. Allow me to explain what could have led me to such insanity. In the 9 week period from April 13 thru June 16, Polanco did this:



AB 173

Hits 32

BA .185

OBP .280

SLG .324

OPS .604



Hurdle talked about his swing which was shorter in the 1st 2 weeks of the season but had returned to the long, looping swing that always caused him problems. Polanco was instructed to move back away from the plate to better square up the ball. But that is a significant adjustment because different positioning at the plate gives a different look to every pitch. It took awhile but Polanco seems to have mastered the changes and is now raking. Polanco didn't have to prove he could hit MLB pitching. He had to learn a new approach to hitting. Working on those mechanical issues could have been done at the AAA level so that he could have returned ready to be productive instead of being an anchor for 9 weeks as he struggled to master a new hitting approach. The team was struggling during Polanco's 9 weeks of not hitting, with a 26-32 records in that stretch. Much of that time they were rotating him with 3 more productive hitters so that they rarely had their best lineup on the field.



But I totally see your point, Wrathchild. Polanco is currently hitting very well and if we ignore those 9 consecutive weeks of poor hitting during which he worked on a new hitting approach, his overall stats don't look bad. And hey, what's a measly 9 weeks out of the season while your right fielder hits .185/.280/.324/.604? As long as he's hitting now, we can pretend those other 9 weeks didn't even happen. Now that's a completely sensible notion! Thanks for helping me see the light.  ::)


Both of your points are really good.  Stats can make really different arguments.



A bigger question I have is how the Pirates deal with slumping players.  I don't have an answer to this question.  For example, when Polanco hit that terrible 9 week slide, options I heard was to send him to AAA.  Or, just don't start him and let him work it out in the cage.  Or, continue to let him be part of the 4 person OF rotation.  Or, start him every day so he can work out of it.  Or, trade him.



Whether it's he or Marte or anyone else, how do you deal with a slump?  Hurdle seems to be pretty determined to let a player start every day at the major league level to get out of a slump.  Is that the only way?  Is there any data on how to best help out a player and protect the team in a slump?  Is it contingent on the player?



I think we all agree that Hurdle really screwed over the team during that time that Polanco was struggling and batting at the top of the lineup.  I am waiting for him to come out and say something to the effect, "See, we stuck with him and look what he is doing now."  I don't know if he (will) believe that or if it (will be a) CYA statement.  Could Polanco have figured it out in the cages/bench or AAA?


I guess, but his "struggling" times were not nearly as low as the lows for the other outfielders.  His low wasn't as low (but lasted longer), and his highs were higher.  His bad month was a 745 OPS. 



Yet those other guys are not getting NEARLY the criticism from the fanbase as Polanco had.  I have heard zero calls to DFA Corey Dickerson or to send Marte to the minors or to sit Austin Meadows.  All three have been worse for the last month than Polanco was during his down time.


I think you guys are ignoring that Dickerson and Marte have much better ancillary skills.  Dickerson has played very good defense and runs the bases well.  Marte is a dumb baserunner, but fast as lightning and may end up with 40 steals this year.   He also plays decent CF defense.



So when Marte and Dickerson's bat's disappear, they're still not out there looking like clowns at the plate, in the field, and on the bases.   



There's also the fact that Polanco has 2000 at bats of this kind of performance, while Dickerson has half a season as a Pirate and Marte is consistently a 4 to 5.5 WAR player   ::)


Oh, as a complete player I'd certainly take Marte (and likely Meadows long term). But it still seems like a double standard to me, how they've been treated by the fans this year.
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by dmetz »

to me, it's understandable that fans treat Polanco differently.  He's been doing this for years and he's a poor fundamental player.  He's never put up overall value.



He's also been endlessly pumped up by the org. So when his game continues to be suspect, fans get frustrated more than someone who's hardly been here (Dickerson) or has played very well for a substantial number of years (marte) or has had a big impact as a young rookie in 30 some games (Meadows).



When Polanco was in meadows' shoes, fans were raving.



I'm going to take a guess that if Meadows ends up with 2000 at bats and 4.5 WAR to show for it, fans will quickly turn on him too.   And meadows is actually a pretty good defender and can play CF.  Something Polanco never really had (ability to play CF)
Ecbucs
Posts: 4219
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:53 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by Ecbucs »

717870616F150 wrote: to me, it's understandable that fans treat Polanco differently.  He's been doing this for years and he's a poor fundamental player.  He's never put up overall value.



He's also been endlessly pumped up by the org. So when his game continues to be suspect, fans get frustrated more than someone who's hardly been here (Dickerson) or has played very well for a substantial number of years (marte) or has had a big impact as a young rookie in 30 some games (Meadows).



When Polanco was in meadows' shoes, fans were raving.



I'm going to take a guess that if Meadows ends up with 2000 at bats and 4.5 WAR to show for it, fans will quickly turn on him too.   And meadows is actually a pretty good defender and can play CF.  Something Polanco never really had (ability to play CF)


I don't know why the Pirates moved Polanco out of center. Maybe because of Cutch and Marte, maybe because they thought he couldn't play it. He did start over 240 games in center in minors including almost all his games at Bradenton and Altoona in 2013.
Wrathchild
Posts: 152
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:23 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by Wrathchild »

737A72636D170 wrote: to me, it's understandable that fans treat Polanco differently.  He's been doing this for years and he's a poor fundamental player.  He's never put up overall value.



He's also been endlessly pumped up by the org. So when his game continues to be suspect, fans get frustrated more than someone who's hardly been here (Dickerson) or has played very well for a substantial number of years (marte) or has had a big impact as a young rookie in 30 some games (Meadows).



When Polanco was in meadows' shoes, fans were raving.



I'm going to take a guess that if Meadows ends up with 2000 at bats and 4.5 WAR to show for it, fans will quickly turn on him too.   And meadows is actually a pretty good defender and can play CF.  Something Polanco never really had (ability to play CF)


That's not exactly true, though. He did put up starter value in both 2015 and 2016 despite not being the hitter we hoped. He wasn't good last year. This year, the part of the game that is most objective and verifiable, offense, is better for Polanco than anything he has ever done. He's improving. Yet, people have taken every opportunity to needle his game. His overall value looks weak because of defensive metrics. If he were putting up the same defensive metrics as previous years, he's a 1.5-1.7 WAR player at the halfway point of the season. Maybe this 26-year-old guy suddenly can't play defense and his low WAR will continue until he's a 900 OPS hitter, but I'm not ready to conclude that and I'm surprised at everyone who has been so quick to get down on him.
Bobster21

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by Bobster21 »

082D3E2B373C3736333B5F0 wrote: I guess some people have to stick to nonsense as long as possible. Polanco isn’t just hitting now. He has a season OPS+ of 119 just as he did when many started complaining about him. He’s been the best offensive player this season on the team of qualifying players. The notion that the Pirates should have sent him to AAA at some point seriously defies all reason.  And Sammy is right in that Marte is in as bad a slump right now as anything Polanco experienced but nobody is crying to send him down to find his swing.
Gee whiz, I'm terrible sorry to bother you with my nonsense and my notion that seriously defies all reason. Allow me to explain what could have led me to such insanity. In the 9 week period from April 13 thru June 16, Polanco did this:



AB 173

Hits 32

BA .185

OBP .280

SLG .324

OPS .604



Hurdle talked about his swing which was shorter in the 1st 2 weeks of the season but had returned to the long, looping swing that always caused him problems. Polanco was instructed to move back away from the plate to better square up the ball. But that is a significant adjustment because different positioning at the plate gives a different look to every pitch. It took awhile but Polanco seems to have mastered the changes and is now raking. Polanco didn't have to prove he could hit MLB pitching. He had to learn a new approach to hitting. Working on those mechanical issues could have been done at the AAA level so that he could have returned ready to be productive instead of being an anchor for 9 weeks as he struggled to master a new hitting approach. The team was struggling during Polanco's 9 weeks of not hitting, with a 26-32 records in that stretch. Much of that time they were rotating him with 3 more productive hitters so that they rarely had their best lineup on the field.



But I totally see your point, Wrathchild. Polanco is currently hitting very well and if we ignore those 9 consecutive weeks of poor hitting during which he worked on a new hitting approach, his overall stats don't look bad. And hey, what's a measly 9 weeks out of the season while your right fielder hits .185/.280/.324/.604? As long as he's hitting now, we can pretend those other 9 weeks didn't even happen. Now that's a completely sensible notion! Thanks for helping me see the light.  ::)


What you're arguing is beyond absurd.  Your nine week "streak" not only ignores the surrounding four plus weeks, but it also ignores that he wasn't awful for the entire nine weeks you've selected.  For instance, from May 1st through May 18th, he slashed .294/.389/.549.



You act like Hurdle and Huntington have a magic 8 ball they can consult to see if and when a guy is going to perform well that day, week or month.



The fact is that he has the best OPS on the team this season of qualifying batters and only a fool would try to parse out his statistics to show the Pirates were stupid not to send him back to AAA at some point.
First of all Wrathchild, thanks for being such a mature poster. If you don't agree with me, you call my opinions "nonsense, "defying logic" and "beyond absurd." So thanks for that. Now as to your criticisms, of course Poanco's 9 week slump ignores the 2 weeks before and the 2 weeks since.  That's why they call it a slump. If you want to tell me something useful, explain to me why there was nothing wrong with playing a RFer for 9 weeks with slash line of .185/.280/.324/.604 and why it would have been "beyond absurd" to let him get straightened out in AAA. And that slash line is actually inflated by a modest streak in early May.



I agree with you that his OPS is now tops on the team. He had a great first 2 weeks of the season and has been raking the past 2 weeks. That's great but it certainly was not the way he was hitting for the vast period in between. Had he spent time in AAA honing his hitting approach instead of bringing his numbers downward until recently, his OPS would no doubt be even better. But Hurdle kept sending him back put there until he mastered the new hitting approach they wanted him to work on and he turned things around. Ok fine. Obviously Hurdle and NH felt it was acceptable to let the team suffer until Polanco got straightened out instead of a temporary assignment to AAA where he would still have gotten straightened out without the team carrying a hole in the batting order for a long time. And I get that you're ok with that Wrathchild, as is your right. I would not insult you merely because you would take a different approach than me to fix a significant problem. But apparently anyone who would have taken a different course of action than you is nonsensical, defying logic and beyond absurd because it's not what you would have done. I admire your inflated opinion of yourself and anxiously await your next insults.




You decided to make the argument, once again, that the idiotic Pirates didn't send Polanco to AAA despite the fact that he's been overall the best offensive player on the team of those that have a qualifying number of plate appearances.  I didn't make you say that.  That opinion is nonsense and defies reason.  The guy is a four year veteran that essentially was great for two weeks, terrible for two weeks, very good again for nearly three weeks, crappy for four weeks and now great again for a couple weeks.  You don't send that particular guy down to AAA.  Nobody does.



As for your whining about my maturity, it was you with the rolling eyes emoji and otherwise condescending post when I took your opiunion (without directly quoting you) to task.  I'm sorry I hurt your feelings Bobster.  If there was adequate emoji available to me, I'd surely use it.


Tell me something. After Polanco fell into his deep hitting funk after the 1st 2 weeks of the season and didn't come out of it until 2 weeks ago other than a brief spurt in early May, how would it have been worse if he had worked out his issues in AAA while players who were not struggling were replacing him in the lineup? Maybe a few more wins? Oh, how awful. He could have returned after mastering the new approach they asked him to work on and still be putting up the good numbers we're currently seeing. Absent his dreadful numbers for most of a 9-week period, that OPS you love so dearly would be even better! You could still be calling him their best offensive player and his numbers would be even better. You're basing everything on his current OPS, which is a snapshot of how he's doing today. I posted his OPS for the 9 week period he struggled and it was quite different. No one was calling him their best overall offensive player at that time and a huge chunk of the season went by before he figured things out.



For you to get so insulting at the suggestion that a player who has been tasked with mastering a new hitting approach should go to AAA after spending 9 weeks going .185/.280/.324/.604 just because 3 months later after he figures things out and has their highest OPS is, let me find the words, nonsense, absurd, whiny and logic defying. Prior to his resurgence the past 2 weeks, his OPS had dropped to one of the lowest on the team. But you don't want to talk about that. You just want to look at how he's hitting after he finally figured things out and call him their best overall hitter and bristle at the suggestion that their best overall hitter at this moment should have gone to AAA over an extended time when he was their worst overall hitter. Just repeatedly citing his current OPS during a hot streak and ignoring how he hit most of the season is not a very convincing argument. And you wanna see condescending? I haven't even started yet.
Wrathchild
Posts: 152
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:23 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by Wrathchild »

4B666B7A7D6C7B3B38090 wrote: I guess some people have to stick to nonsense as long as possible. Polanco isn’t just hitting now. He has a season OPS+ of 119 just as he did when many started complaining about him. He’s been the best offensive player this season on the team of qualifying players. The notion that the Pirates should have sent him to AAA at some point seriously defies all reason.  And Sammy is right in that Marte is in as bad a slump right now as anything Polanco experienced but nobody is crying to send him down to find his swing.
Gee whiz, I'm terrible sorry to bother you with my nonsense and my notion that seriously defies all reason. Allow me to explain what could have led me to such insanity. In the 9 week period from April 13 thru June 16, Polanco did this:



AB 173

Hits 32

BA .185

OBP .280

SLG .324

OPS .604



Hurdle talked about his swing which was shorter in the 1st 2 weeks of the season but had returned to the long, looping swing that always caused him problems. Polanco was instructed to move back away from the plate to better square up the ball. But that is a significant adjustment because different positioning at the plate gives a different look to every pitch. It took awhile but Polanco seems to have mastered the changes and is now raking. Polanco didn't have to prove he could hit MLB pitching. He had to learn a new approach to hitting. Working on those mechanical issues could have been done at the AAA level so that he could have returned ready to be productive instead of being an anchor for 9 weeks as he struggled to master a new hitting approach. The team was struggling during Polanco's 9 weeks of not hitting, with a 26-32 records in that stretch. Much of that time they were rotating him with 3 more productive hitters so that they rarely had their best lineup on the field.



But I totally see your point, Wrathchild. Polanco is currently hitting very well and if we ignore those 9 consecutive weeks of poor hitting during which he worked on a new hitting approach, his overall stats don't look bad. And hey, what's a measly 9 weeks out of the season while your right fielder hits .185/.280/.324/.604? As long as he's hitting now, we can pretend those other 9 weeks didn't even happen. Now that's a completely sensible notion! Thanks for helping me see the light.  ::)


What you're arguing is beyond absurd.  Your nine week "streak" not only ignores the surrounding four plus weeks, but it also ignores that he wasn't awful for the entire nine weeks you've selected.  For instance, from May 1st through May 18th, he slashed .294/.389/.549.



You act like Hurdle and Huntington have a magic 8 ball they can consult to see if and when a guy is going to perform well that day, week or month.



The fact is that he has the best OPS on the team this season of qualifying batters and only a fool would try to parse out his statistics to show the Pirates were stupid not to send him back to AAA at some point.
First of all Wrathchild, thanks for being such a mature poster. If you don't agree with me, you call my opinions "nonsense, "defying logic" and "beyond absurd." So thanks for that. Now as to your criticisms, of course Poanco's 9 week slump ignores the 2 weeks before and the 2 weeks since.  That's why they call it a slump. If you want to tell me something useful, explain to me why there was nothing wrong with playing a RFer for 9 weeks with slash line of .185/.280/.324/.604 and why it would have been "beyond absurd" to let him get straightened out in AAA. And that slash line is actually inflated by a modest streak in early May.



I agree with you that his OPS is now tops on the team. He had a great first 2 weeks of the season and has been raking the past 2 weeks. That's great but it certainly was not the way he was hitting for the vast period in between. Had he spent time in AAA honing his hitting approach instead of bringing his numbers downward until recently, his OPS would no doubt be even better. But Hurdle kept sending him back put there until he mastered the new hitting approach they wanted him to work on and he turned things around. Ok fine. Obviously Hurdle and NH felt it was acceptable to let the team suffer until Polanco got straightened out instead of a temporary assignment to AAA where he would still have gotten straightened out without the team carrying a hole in the batting order for a long time. And I get that you're ok with that Wrathchild, as is your right. I would not insult you merely because you would take a different approach than me to fix a significant problem. But apparently anyone who would have taken a different course of action than you is nonsensical, defying logic and beyond absurd because it's not what you would have done. I admire your inflated opinion of yourself and anxiously await your next insults.




You decided to make the argument, once again, that the idiotic Pirates didn't send Polanco to AAA despite the fact that he's been overall the best offensive player on the team of those that have a qualifying number of plate appearances.  I didn't make you say that.  That opinion is nonsense and defies reason.  The guy is a four year veteran that essentially was great for two weeks, terrible for two weeks, very good again for nearly three weeks, crappy for four weeks and now great again for a couple weeks.  You don't send that particular guy down to AAA.  Nobody does.



As for your whining about my maturity, it was you with the rolling eyes emoji and otherwise condescending post when I took your opiunion (without directly quoting you) to task.  I'm sorry I hurt your feelings Bobster.  If there was adequate emoji available to me, I'd surely use it.


Tell me something. After Polanco fell into his deep hitting funk after the 1st 2 weeks of the season and didn't come out of it until 2 weeks ago other than a brief spurt in early May, how would it have been worse if he had worked out his issues in AAA while players who were not struggling were replacing him in the lineup? Maybe a few more wins? Oh, how awful. He could have returned after mastering the new approach they asked him to work on and still be putting up the good numbers we're currently seeing. Absent his dreadful numbers for most of a 9-week period, that OPS you love so dearly would be even better! You could still be calling him their best offensive player and his numbers would be even better. You're basing everything on his current OPS, which is a snapshot of how he's doing today. I posted his OPS for the 9 week period he struggled and it was quite different. No one was calling him their best overall offensive player at that time and a huge chunk of the season went by before he figured things out. 



For you to get so insulting at the suggestion that a player who has been tasked with mastering a new hitting approach should go to AAA after spending 9 weeks going .185/.280/.324/.604 just because 3 months later after he figures things out and has their highest OPS is, let me find the words, nonsense, absurd, whiny and logic defying. Prior to his resurgence the past 2 weeks, his OPS had dropped to one of the lowest on the team. But you don't want to talk about that. You just want to look at how he's hitting after he finally figured things out and call him their best overall hitter and bristle at the suggestion that their best overall hitter at this moment should have gone to AAA over an extended time when he was their worst overall hitter. Just repeatedly citing his current OPS during a hot streak and ignoring how he hit most of the season is not a very convincing argument. And you wanna see condescending? I haven't even started yet. 


Honestly, I stopped reading your post intently after the second sentence, because you loaded it with disinformation even though I already corrected you on the point. The "brief spurt" in early May wasn't any more brief than the poor late April that preceded it. On May 18th, the guy had an .813 OPS (which is way better than batting averages you insist on constantly reporting to determine offensive value).



You had to be corrected in your reporting of Polanco's statistics a few weeks ago as well. You seem to be more interested in convincing readers that you're right about something than discussing things honestly. Perhaps Polanco didn't sign your Pirates fantasy camp jersey.



Like I pointed out, he's been hot, cold, hot, cold and now hot. At various points during this season, he's had strong offensive statistics, not just on April 13th and today. Now, he leads the team among qualifiers in the measure that most people go to determine general offensive value.



Your entire argument is predicated on the fanciful notion that coaches and management should know when a guy is going to slump and when he's going to come out of it. You've been around too long for me to have to explain that isn't how it works.



The most interesting facet of your argument is you're stubborn enough to go out of your way to make it today. This doesn't even qualify as your typical second-guessing of a failure; it's the adherence to a belief that has now been established as false. Polanco didn't need to go to AAA to find his swing and, as of today, his overall performance hasn't hurt the team. I bet we could go through pretty much everyone on the team and select certain arbitrary endpoints and say "if we had sent that guy to AAA, his stats would be better."



So, you can be as condescending as you threaten to be, but your position is still wrong.
dmetz
Posts: 1687
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:52 pm

Polanco -- A Distressed Asset

Post by dmetz »

351003160A010A0B0E06620 wrote: to me, it's understandable that fans treat Polanco differently.  He's been doing this for years and he's a poor fundamental player.  He's never put up overall value.



He's also been endlessly pumped up by the org. So when his game continues to be suspect, fans get frustrated more than someone who's hardly been here (Dickerson) or has played very well for a substantial number of years (marte) or has had a big impact as a young rookie in 30 some games (Meadows).



When Polanco was in meadows' shoes, fans were raving.



I'm going to take a guess that if Meadows ends up with 2000 at bats and 4.5 WAR to show for it, fans will quickly turn on him too.   And meadows is actually a pretty good defender and can play CF.  Something Polanco never really had (ability to play CF)


That's not exactly true, though.  He did put up starter value in both 2015 and 2016 despite not being the hitter we hoped.  He wasn't good last year.  This year, the part of the game that is most objective and verifiable, offense, is better for Polanco than anything he has ever done.  He's improving.  Yet, people have taken every opportunity to needle his game.  His overall value looks weak because of defensive metrics.  If he were putting up the same defensive metrics as previous years, he's a 1.5-1.7 WAR player at the halfway point of the season.  Maybe this 26-year-old guy suddenly can't play defense and his low WAR will continue until he's a 900 OPS hitter, but I'm not ready to conclude that and I'm surprised at everyone who has been so quick to get down on him.


I understand what you're saying, but he's only really had 1 season by WAR where he was a solid starter, and that was 2015 at 2.6.  That was actually defense assisted.  His OPS was .701 that year.   



Every other season he's had varying degrees of OK defensive value though not too bad.  Not enough that I thought he was bad.  This year, it's been about twice as bad so I agree it's weird and questionable what is going on defensively this year.  There's a lot of disparity between Fangraphs and BRef with his WAR ratings.



Check out his range rate this year with fangraphs.  -5.2.  Killing his UZR so far this year.   DRS hates him too at a -6 so far.   The defensive numbers are off the charts bad because of his crazy bad range numbers this year.   I don't know what to make of it or how a healthy player "showing upin the best shape of his life" could possibly go from decent range to worst in baseball in 6 months.



However, even that being said, the B-refernce OWar numbers don't support that he's ever had a good offensive season for a right fielder.  I guess 1.6 in 2016 would be the low side of average.  maybe.



2015 he was 92 w/RC+

2016 he was 106 W/RC+

2017 he was 81 w/RC+

2018 he is now 119 w/RC+ and it's all Pedro Alvarez.  a few weeks of bashing with a couple months of absolutely nothing mixed in. 



I admit I have no good guess what kind of hitter he will be next week, let alone next year. He's hot now, play him everyday and see what happens. Just how about we don't bat him 2nd for a month if/when he totally disappears again?
Post Reply