694D595154380 wrote:
While I agree with much of what you say I want to point out that your assumption about dealing with an $80M payroll may be considerably off the mark. I refer back to Orlando Merced's detailed post concerning payroll for next year. His projections for the 2019 roster seem to me to be reasonable and accurate.
With statements from NH and CH confirming their unwillingness to spend significantly on any free agents I have to assume that no players such as Keuchel or Escobar will be acquired and their positions will be taken by internal options most likely making MLB minimum salary. Consequently the Pirate payroll for 2019 will be more in the $55M range, and not $80M. I think any chance for optimization at that payroll level involves a different GM, a different manager and coaching staff and the addition of some angels in the outfield.
Should not that my payroll assumption removes a number of contracts off the books, and ignores some other possibilities that could easily put the Pirates in the $85M range.
Just doing some tinkering with my spreadsheet, if they keep Nova and Freese, and also resign Mercer or Sean Rod for the bench, they are back to an $80M payroll.
I think unfortunately that is the most likely course for this FO. They will not go full pre-arb and break spring training with the Taillon/Musgrove/Williams/Kuhl/Kingham rotation and both Newman and Kramer.
Maybe I Am Too Optimistic
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Maybe I Am Too Optimistic
79445A575852597B5344555352360 wrote:
While I agree with much of what you say I want to point out that your assumption about dealing with an $80M payroll may be considerably off the mark. I refer back to Orlando Merced's detailed post concerning payroll for next year. His projections for the 2019 roster seem to me to be reasonable and accurate.
With statements from NH and CH confirming their unwillingness to spend significantly on any free agents I have to assume that no players such as Keuchel or Escobar will be acquired and their positions will be taken by internal options most likely making MLB minimum salary. Consequently the Pirate payroll for 2019 will be more in the $55M range, and not $80M. I think any chance for optimization at that payroll level involves a different GM, a different manager and coaching staff and the addition of some angels in the outfield.
Should not that my payroll assumption removes a number of contracts off the books, and ignores some other possibilities that could easily put the Pirates in the $85M range.
Just doing some tinkering with my spreadsheet, if they keep Nova and Freese, and also resign Mercer or Sean Rod for the bench, they are back to an $80M payroll.
I think unfortunately that is the most likely course for this FO. They will not go full pre-arb and break spring training with the Taillon/Musgrove/Williams/Kuhl/Kingham rotation and both Newman and Kramer.
Actually the things I've been reading indicate that Mercer is a guy they have no interest in having return, that if they can't deal Harrison and Freese at the trade deadline they will utilize their buyout options for 2019 (a total of $1.5M for both) rather than pay them their salaries, and that they fully intend to unload Nova and Dickerson at the trade deadline. As for SRod I haven't heard anything about him except that there's little chance that they can trade him (who would want him?) and if they bring him back next year (heaven forbid!) it won't be at anywhere near the $5.75M salary he's getting now.
As a consequence I'm inclined to think that the roster you posted (sadly minus Keuchel and Escobar who would be perfect) will in fact be the one we'll likely be seeing. This is extremely disappointing because with a core group of young players making MLB minimum, adding some high quality free agents such as Keuchel and Escobar could energize the team and still keep a very low (by MLB standards) payroll. Sure seems like a time when ownership and management could have their cake and eat it too.
While I agree with much of what you say I want to point out that your assumption about dealing with an $80M payroll may be considerably off the mark. I refer back to Orlando Merced's detailed post concerning payroll for next year. His projections for the 2019 roster seem to me to be reasonable and accurate.
With statements from NH and CH confirming their unwillingness to spend significantly on any free agents I have to assume that no players such as Keuchel or Escobar will be acquired and their positions will be taken by internal options most likely making MLB minimum salary. Consequently the Pirate payroll for 2019 will be more in the $55M range, and not $80M. I think any chance for optimization at that payroll level involves a different GM, a different manager and coaching staff and the addition of some angels in the outfield.
Should not that my payroll assumption removes a number of contracts off the books, and ignores some other possibilities that could easily put the Pirates in the $85M range.
Just doing some tinkering with my spreadsheet, if they keep Nova and Freese, and also resign Mercer or Sean Rod for the bench, they are back to an $80M payroll.
I think unfortunately that is the most likely course for this FO. They will not go full pre-arb and break spring training with the Taillon/Musgrove/Williams/Kuhl/Kingham rotation and both Newman and Kramer.
Actually the things I've been reading indicate that Mercer is a guy they have no interest in having return, that if they can't deal Harrison and Freese at the trade deadline they will utilize their buyout options for 2019 (a total of $1.5M for both) rather than pay them their salaries, and that they fully intend to unload Nova and Dickerson at the trade deadline. As for SRod I haven't heard anything about him except that there's little chance that they can trade him (who would want him?) and if they bring him back next year (heaven forbid!) it won't be at anywhere near the $5.75M salary he's getting now.
As a consequence I'm inclined to think that the roster you posted (sadly minus Keuchel and Escobar who would be perfect) will in fact be the one we'll likely be seeing. This is extremely disappointing because with a core group of young players making MLB minimum, adding some high quality free agents such as Keuchel and Escobar could energize the team and still keep a very low (by MLB standards) payroll. Sure seems like a time when ownership and management could have their cake and eat it too.
Maybe I Am Too Optimistic
507677607666150 wrote: pretty good post. However, I disagree about the 10 million on a pitcher. The Pirates are paying Cervelli 10 million this season, Marte 7.8, Harrison 10.2, and Nova 9.1
The team strategy as outlined by NH of building a 78-82 win team and then having people over perform every now and then is a stupid strategy no matter what the payroll.
The other flaw with this is that everyone who doesn’t overperform cannot underperform. But most of the time, at least as many guys who are overperforming will underperform and the rest will be average. But that just drags you right back to average as a team. You’re back to lightning in a bottle to succeed.
The team strategy as outlined by NH of building a 78-82 win team and then having people over perform every now and then is a stupid strategy no matter what the payroll.
The other flaw with this is that everyone who doesn’t overperform cannot underperform. But most of the time, at least as many guys who are overperforming will underperform and the rest will be average. But that just drags you right back to average as a team. You’re back to lightning in a bottle to succeed.