Rocker vs Leiter as it now stands.

[WildwoodDave2]

2B27267D747D75787F607A4D0 wrote: I watched a little portion of Leiter’s start last night and he was just okay in my opinion. A graphic was posted saying he has given up 5 home runs in last 11 plus innings. That is a little concerning. I have been hoping the Bucs select Leiter, but I am on the fence as to which player they pick. The Pirates have about 3 months to continue to watch and compile the information on the two Vandy pitchers, or Lawlar the high school shortstop from Texas.
I will say this- I know it's early yet but there seems to be quite a few BAD teams out there. Colorado, Detroit, Texas. We might not get the chance

[Ecbucs]

033D3830233B3B301035223166540 wrote: I watched a little portion of Leiter’s start last night and he was just okay in my opinion. A graphic was posted saying he has given up 5 home runs in last 11 plus innings. That is a little concerning. I have been hoping the Bucs select Leiter, but I am on the fence as to which player they pick. The Pirates have about 3 months to continue to watch and compile the information on the two Vandy pitchers, or Lawlar the high school shortstop from Texas.
I will say this- I know it's early yet but there seems to be quite a few BAD teams out there. Colorado, Detroit, Texas. We might not get the chance


we get first shot at these guys as the Bucs do have first pick in the draft this summer. 2022 draft is in question.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

426F62737465723231000 wrote: The Pirates system is loaded with middle infielders; especially SS

If they pass on either Leiter or Rocker then there really is no hope for this team




I really don't agree with that. The only top prospect the Pirates have at ss IMO is Peguro. Cruz will never stick at ss.


I think we should keep an eye on Lawlar.  With pitching prospects, the Pirates:

A.  Develop for the next team

B.  Have team docs practice surgery

C.  Fail to unlock potential at the major league level

D.  All the above



I’m definitely interest in Lawlar.
In my opinion if they think Lawlar is the best player to take with the number 1 pick they will take him even though they have several middle infield candidates.
I don't know who they should take. But if it's one of the pitchers I hope he's the rare case who becomes dominating right from the start. Most great pitchers take 3-4 years to become great and by then it's time to start thinking about what you can get for them in a trade before they walk as a FA. Not to mention the arm problems so many pitchers suffer. In hindsight the Bucs would have done better picking Manny Machado (5+ great years for the Orioles) over Taillon (1 good year for Pirates).



Stephen Strasburg dominated from the start but a year later was having TJ surgery. His best years for the Nats were after they gave him a contract extension and subsequently re-signed him as a FA. If the Nats had traded him before he was first eligible to become a FA (as the Pirates would have done), Strasburg would have been just another pitcher who had his best years after he leaves his original team. 


Exactly my point and exactly why I’m thinking real serious about going after Lawlar as 1-1.  Also, when Cole (or Tallion or who ever) doesn’t REALLY dominate until years 4 or 5 the Pirates are getting low return in his trade. 



Finally, I wonder if Lawlar might sign below the cap, allowing the Pirates to be aggressive in later rounds.



Bottomline - I’m growing old watching Pirate pitching prospects underwhelm. 

[CTBucco]

A couple of things.  I struggle with some conflicting bits of reality.

• The Pirates will never acquire via FA (and probably also not by trade) TOR starting pitchers.
  
  Drafted position players have a higher chance of reaching their potential than similarly rated pitchers.
  
  As was said here, SPs take 3-4 years in the majors in most cases to produce as TOR pitchers.
  
  Most seriously contending teams have at least one ace and another good #2 SP.  They are needed to win playoff series.
  So, how does a team like the Bucs get quality TOR pitchers?  Cole was very good.  Taillon had the injury problems.  Glasnow was the one later round guy to succeed, but the team's approach under Searage hurt him (and Cole), and we gave up too soon.
  
  
  
  To my first point, Liriano and AJ Burnett were the only recent exceptions as TOR SPs.  Maybe JA Happ as a rental.  Liriano had had 3 straight subpar seasons before being signed so he was a reclamation project, and the success rate with those isn't great.  Burnett's story was similar.  Credit Searage or just lightning in a bottle?  Either way, it wasn't a repeatable way to build a staff as the following years proved.
  
  
  
  I think the only way is to draft them.  Maybe we can develop some int'l FAs?  It means that they will have a frustratingly low success rate.  But, unless a guy like Lawlar is a can't miss prospect (name one other than Harper that has produced), I think they have to draft for #1/2 SPs when the ceiling is present and especially when the floor is as high as Leiter's or Rocker's.

[Bobster21]

1205132432323E510 wrote: A couple of things.  I struggle with some conflicting bits of reality.

• The Pirates will never acquire via FA (and probably also not by trade) TOR starting pitchers.
  
  Drafted position players have a higher chance of reaching their potential than similarly rated pitchers.
  
  As was said here, SPs take 3-4 years in the majors in most cases to produce as TOR pitchers.
  
  Most seriously contending teams have at least one ace and another good #2 SP.  They are needed to win playoff series.
  So, how does a team like the Bucs get quality TOR pitchers?  Cole was very good.  Taillon had the injury problems.  Glasnow was the one later round guy to succeed, but the team's approach under Searage hurt him (and Cole), and we gave up too soon.
  
  
  
  To my first point, Liriano and AJ Burnett were the only recent exceptions as TOR SPs.  Maybe JA Happ as a rental.  Liriano had had 3 straight subpar seasons before being signed so he was a reclamation project, and the success rate with those isn't great.  Burnett's story was similar.  Credit Searage or just lightning in a bottle?  Either way, it wasn't a repeatable way to build a staff as the following years proved.
  
  
  
  I think the only way is to draft them.  Maybe we can develop some int'l FAs?  It means that they will have a frustratingly low success rate.  But, unless a guy like Lawlar is a can't miss prospect (name one other than Harper that has produced), I think they have to draft for #1/2 SPs when the ceiling is present and especially when the floor is as high as Leiter's or Rocker's.
  Happ was another failed pitcher when the Pirates acquired him. Burnett was injured at the last minute before the TDL and NH had to scramble to quickly find a replacement. Happ had significantly declined since a good season in 2009 and at the TDL he was 4-6 with a 4.64 ERA for Seattle. Searage seemed to have really helped him as he went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA in his 11 starts as a Pirate, 20-4 the next year for Toronto and 17-6 2 years after that. But at the time of the trade it looked like the Pirates were dumpster diving for a quick replacement for Burnett.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

786F794E5858543B0 wrote: A couple of things.  I struggle with some conflicting bits of reality.

• The Pirates will never acquire via FA (and probably also not by trade) TOR starting pitchers.
  
  Drafted position players have a higher chance of reaching their potential than similarly rated pitchers.
  
  As was said here, SPs take 3-4 years in the majors in most cases to produce as TOR pitchers.
  
  Most seriously contending teams have at least one ace and another good #2 SP.  They are needed to win playoff series.
  So, how does a team like the Bucs get quality TOR pitchers?  Cole was very good.  Taillon had the injury problems.  Glasnow was the one later round guy to succeed, but the team's approach under Searage hurt him (and Cole), and we gave up too soon.
  
  
  
  To my first point, Liriano and AJ Burnett were the only recent exceptions as TOR SPs.  Maybe JA Happ as a rental.  Liriano had had 3 straight subpar seasons before being signed so he was a reclamation project, and the success rate with those isn't great.  Burnett's story was similar.  Credit Searage or just lightning in a bottle?  Either way, it wasn't a repeatable way to build a staff as the following years proved.
  
  
  
  I think the only way is to draft them.  Maybe we can develop some int'l FAs?  It means that they will have a frustratingly low success rate.  But, unless a guy like Lawlar is a can't miss prospect (name one other than Harper that has produced), I think they have to draft for #1/2 SPs when the ceiling is present and especially when the floor is as high as Leiter's or Rocker's.
  
  
  This may be the most damaging example of nutting”s ownership: unwilling to add the few critical pieces needed to field the best team possible.
  
  
  
  Instead of being forced to draft a pitcher, build a team and then add one or two high end pitchers. The Brewers, Indians, Reds.....find a way. Can the Pirates? Gotta be willing to add. As I said over and over back in 2015: FINISH THE TEAM!

[Bobster21]

686F79717F682F235A7D777B7376347975771A0 wrote: A couple of things.  I struggle with some conflicting bits of reality.

• The Pirates will never acquire via FA (and probably also not by trade) TOR starting pitchers.
  
  Drafted position players have a higher chance of reaching their potential than similarly rated pitchers.
  
  As was said here, SPs take 3-4 years in the majors in most cases to produce as TOR pitchers.
  
  Most seriously contending teams have at least one ace and another good #2 SP.  They are needed to win playoff series.
  So, how does a team like the Bucs get quality TOR pitchers?  Cole was very good.  Taillon had the injury problems.  Glasnow was the one later round guy to succeed, but the team's approach under Searage hurt him (and Cole), and we gave up too soon.
  
  
  
  To my first point, Liriano and AJ Burnett were the only recent exceptions as TOR SPs.  Maybe JA Happ as a rental.  Liriano had had 3 straight subpar seasons before being signed so he was a reclamation project, and the success rate with those isn't great.  Burnett's story was similar.  Credit Searage or just lightning in a bottle?  Either way, it wasn't a repeatable way to build a staff as the following years proved.
  
  
  
  I think the only way is to draft them.  Maybe we can develop some int'l FAs?  It means that they will have a frustratingly low success rate.  But, unless a guy like Lawlar is a can't miss prospect (name one other than Harper that has produced), I think they have to draft for #1/2 SPs when the ceiling is present and especially when the floor is as high as Leiter's or Rocker's.
  
  
  This may be the most damaging example of nutting”s ownership: unwilling to add the few critical pieces needed to field the best team possible. 
  
  
  
  Instead of being forced to draft a pitcher, build a team and then add one or two high end pitchers.  The Brewers, Indians, Reds.....find a way.   Can the Pirates?  Gotta be willing to add.  As I said over and over back in 2015: FINISH THE TEAM!
  
  
  That was how the 2015 team hit a wall in 2016 and went from 98 wins to 78 wins. Burnett retired and rather than pay to keep Happ, they added Vogelsong. When they wouldn't even start Alvarez in the WC game because of his atrocious defense, they needed a 1Bman and settled for John Jaso. When Locke and Morton had been a weak 2/5ths of the rotation they kept Locke and replaced Morton with nothing more than Jon Niese. You have to be willing to add the missing pieces to a good team and you can't fill holes with players who everyone can see will weaken the team.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

684548595E4F58181B2A0 wrote: A couple of things.  I struggle with some conflicting bits of reality.

• The Pirates will never acquire via FA (and probably also not by trade) TOR starting pitchers.
  
  Drafted position players have a higher chance of reaching their potential than similarly rated pitchers.
  
  As was said here, SPs take 3-4 years in the majors in most cases to produce as TOR pitchers.
  
  Most seriously contending teams have at least one ace and another good #2 SP.  They are needed to win playoff series.
  So, how does a team like the Bucs get quality TOR pitchers?  Cole was very good.  Taillon had the injury problems.  Glasnow was the one later round guy to succeed, but the team's approach under Searage hurt him (and Cole), and we gave up too soon.
  
  
  
  To my first point, Liriano and AJ Burnett were the only recent exceptions as TOR SPs.  Maybe JA Happ as a rental.  Liriano had had 3 straight subpar seasons before being signed so he was a reclamation project, and the success rate with those isn't great.  Burnett's story was similar.  Credit Searage or just lightning in a bottle?  Either way, it wasn't a repeatable way to build a staff as the following years proved.
  
  
  
  I think the only way is to draft them.  Maybe we can develop some int'l FAs?  It means that they will have a frustratingly low success rate.  But, unless a guy like Lawlar is a can't miss prospect (name one other than Harper that has produced), I think they have to draft for #1/2 SPs when the ceiling is present and especially when the floor is as high as Leiter's or Rocker's.
  
  
  This may be the most damaging example of nutting”s ownership: unwilling to add the few critical pieces needed to field the best team possible. 
  
  
  
  Instead of being forced to draft a pitcher, build a team and then add one or two high end pitchers.  The Brewers, Indians, Reds.....find a way.   Can the Pirates?  Gotta be willing to add.  As I said over and over back in 2015: FINISH THE TEAM!
  
  
  That was how the 2015 team hit a wall in 2016 and went from 98 wins to 78 wins. Burnett retired and rather than pay to keep Happ, they added Vogelsong. When they wouldn't even start Alvarez in the WC game because of his atrocious defense, they needed a 1Bman and settled for John Jaso. When Locke and Morton had been a weak 2/5ths of the rotation they kept Locke and replaced Morton with nothing more than Jon Niese. You have to be willing to add the missing pieces to a good team and you can't fill holes with players who everyone can see will weaken the team.
  
  
  I considered those moves a “con job” by the FO.
  
  
  
  I believed this back then and I still believe it today: the Pirates can build a good team through the draft and smart acquisitions. But to be a championship caliber team they will have to add one or two major acquisitions.

[MJohnson]

And plan on paying to keep a player or two into free agency.

[rucker59@gmail.com]

6F684D4A4C514D4C220 wrote: And plan on paying to keep a player or two into free agency.


Yes. Especially if it’s a pitcher that took a couple years to develop. But we know the most expensive FA years to buy out.