Come On Pirates Do Something

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fjk090852-7
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Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:52 pm

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by fjk090852-7 »

0E2C3F222124232C0F382E2E224D0 wrote: Absolutely. We need a REAL MLB starter (ideally a lefty), a real SS and I still think we need another bat (with power) in the OF.




I absolutely agree with you. We need those three additional players and the Pirates could probably get them without breaking the bank. If the right players were signed or acquired it would be a boost to their fan base.
JollyRoger
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Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:31 pm

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by JollyRoger »

49485342541413270 wrote: As of right now, I would look at the lineup to be something like:

Frazier

Marte

Chisenhall/Polanco

Cervelli/Diaz

Bell

Dickerson

Moran/Kang

Newman/Gonzalez



As long as Chisenhall is healthy, he’ll be productive, so I don’t think there will be an issue with slotting him into that #3 slot, but you could also swap him with Dickerson there. I’m watching Frazier carefully as well. If he were to not be able to handle leadoff duties, I would like them to try Dickerson back there. This will at times be a flaccid lineup, but should Bell pick up where he left off, he could slot back to clean up and extend the lineup well by pushing Cervelli out of that role. Kang is also a wildcard and could force Moran out of the lineup and occupy a high leverage role in the lineup.

Should one of Marte, Chisenhall or Dickerson suffer injury prior to Polanco’s return that creates a headache, as that would force Reyes in to full time duty, and that is not a great option. Otherwise I don’t see any depth concerns as there isn’t that level of dropoff anywhere else in the lineup. I assume they are waiting for Tulowitzki to make his decision before pursuing other SS options. They are not going to go into ST with those two options. I honestly don’t have issue with them just going with a glove first guy and slotting the SS into the #8 slot in the lineup. I think Newman should be sent back down to AAA, let Gonzalez be the backup. Frazier forcing his way back into the picture was a major development heading into the season. Marte, Dickerson and Cervelli are pros and would start on any ML team, Chisenhall is a late career breakout candidate, and Polanco could return to the team. Kang is a decent hedge against Moran potentially stagnating.

So if we’re looking at this lineup and saying we trust Marte, Chisenhall/Polanco, Dickerson and Cervelli to produce consistently, and we feel pretty good about Frazier handling everyday duty. Moran and Bell become the keys to moving this from an ok team, to a playoff contender. I’ll just note that both Bell and Moran can handle the bat, they both got on base at solid clips, and they are both young and likely to improve. Remember, there was a point last year where the offense was tearing up the league, that was a fluke, but this is a collection of guys capable of scoring runs.

I think when we get focused on payroll issues, we lose sight what the team actually has. It would also be constructive to compare the pitching staff heading into 2019 compared to last year.

Rotation 2018: Nova, Taillon, Williams, Kuhl, Brault (until Musgrove returned in the summer)

Rotation 2019: Archer, Taillon, Williams, Musgrove, Brault/Lyles/Kingham

Bullpen 2018: Vazquez, Kontos, Feliz, Glasnow, Santana, Neverauskas, Smoker

Bullpen: 2019: Vazquez, Kela, Crick, Rodriguez, Lyles/Brault/Kingham, Feliz

I remember the bullpen throwing away a number of games to start the season as Kontos, Feliz, Neverauskus and Smoker pitched themselves off the team. You are essentially replacing a mediocre Nova with Archer and Kuhl with Musgrove to round out the top 4. They didn’t have a legit #5 last year for a while, and I think a case could be made that letting those three guys compete for the job in ST puts the Pirates in a better place heading into to 2019 opposed to handing the job to Nova. I actually like Kingham winning the job, he clearly hit a wall, but few guys make a seamless transition to the majors and he has the makeup of a good bottom of the rotation guy. Not sure what Lyles is, but I don’t think he’ll have a problem replacing Santana if he’s relegated to the bullpen. I think Brault should see the writing on the wall, and know that his future is in becoming a reliever and he could potentially be an asset as a LH reliever. Either way, we’re seeing young competent guys competing for playing time on the edge of the roster, that’s where the team wants to be. It’s likely a good bet that one of Crick or Rodriguez will play themselves out of the higher leverage roles in the bullpen, but I have faith in Kela and Vazquez, so it’s not going to be a big obstacle for one of the other bullpen guys to step up to fill a 7th inning role, as opposed to the 8th.

The AAA team has a collection of prospects that could see time in the majors next year and provide needed depth. The starting lineup could include, Craig, Kramer, Tucker, Hayes, Reynolds and Martin. And the rotation will have Keller, Brubaker, Holmes and Eppler.

As for the other teams in the division. I don’t care that the Reds collected the runoff from the dodgers. I don’t think they have any pitching that’s worth a damn. The Cubs will need Bryant to come back and return to form, I wouldn’t be surprised if that locker room becomes toxic with all those veterans underperforming their contracts. The Cardinals have the devil magic so they’ll be relevant, but I’m not sure they can count on what Carpenter and Mikolas repeating.  For whatever reason, the Pirates had the Brewer’s number last year, not sure how that will play out in 2019, but it’s reason to think that there are some chinks in their armor.

There are a range of outcomes for 2019, there’s reason to think they will improve over 2018, the question will of course be whether that improvement leads to more wins or just a more consistent product on the field. Remember that last year was a good baseball sandwiching a period of crap.


So you think the rotation is better without Nova and one of Brault, Kingham, and Lyles replacing him??? I could care less what we went into 2018 with, I care what we are going into 2019 with. Nova isn't a star by any means but he pitched 161  innings of 4.19 ball in 2018. He chews up innings. Lets not take this lightly, I don't see anyone capable of replacing what he provided on this roster.

Then you go on to make light of what the Reds have done. They added a legit pitcher along with 2 above average OF's. Look I don't think the Pirates are awful but they are clearly behind just about every team in this division, including the Reds.


I think the Pirates have a solid rotation and a bullpen that could be dominating. However they have absolutely no power. You can’t dismiss what the Reds have done. They now have 5 guys capable of hitting 30-40 HRs.

The Bucs simply will have no margin for error. How many 1-0 or 2-1 games can you expect to win each year?
notes34
Posts: 856
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:10 am

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by notes34 »

7A5F5C5C49625F575542300 wrote: As of right now, I would look at the lineup to be something like:

Frazier

Marte

Chisenhall/Polanco

Cervelli/Diaz

Bell

Dickerson

Moran/Kang

Newman/Gonzalez



As long as Chisenhall is healthy, he’ll be productive, so I don’t think there will be an issue with slotting him into that #3 slot, but you could also swap him with Dickerson there. I’m watching Frazier carefully as well. If he were to not be able to handle leadoff duties, I would like them to try Dickerson back there. This will at times be a flaccid lineup, but should Bell pick up where he left off, he could slot back to clean up and extend the lineup well by pushing Cervelli out of that role. Kang is also a wildcard and could force Moran out of the lineup and occupy a high leverage role in the lineup.

Should one of Marte, Chisenhall or Dickerson suffer injury prior to Polanco’s return that creates a headache, as that would force Reyes in to full time duty, and that is not a great option. Otherwise I don’t see any depth concerns as there isn’t that level of dropoff anywhere else in the lineup. I assume they are waiting for Tulowitzki to make his decision before pursuing other SS options. They are not going to go into ST with those two options. I honestly don’t have issue with them just going with a glove first guy and slotting the SS into the #8 slot in the lineup. I think Newman should be sent back down to AAA, let Gonzalez be the backup. Frazier forcing his way back into the picture was a major development heading into the season. Marte, Dickerson and Cervelli are pros and would start on any ML team, Chisenhall is a late career breakout candidate, and Polanco could return to the team. Kang is a decent hedge against Moran potentially stagnating.

So if we’re looking at this lineup and saying we trust Marte, Chisenhall/Polanco, Dickerson and Cervelli to produce consistently, and we feel pretty good about Frazier handling everyday duty. Moran and Bell become the keys to moving this from an ok team, to a playoff contender. I’ll just note that both Bell and Moran can handle the bat, they both got on base at solid clips, and they are both young and likely to improve. Remember, there was a point last year where the offense was tearing up the league, that was a fluke, but this is a collection of guys capable of scoring runs.

I think when we get focused on payroll issues, we lose sight what the team actually has. It would also be constructive to compare the pitching staff heading into 2019 compared to last year.

Rotation 2018: Nova, Taillon, Williams, Kuhl, Brault (until Musgrove returned in the summer)

Rotation 2019: Archer, Taillon, Williams, Musgrove, Brault/Lyles/Kingham

Bullpen 2018: Vazquez, Kontos, Feliz, Glasnow, Santana, Neverauskas, Smoker

Bullpen: 2019: Vazquez, Kela, Crick, Rodriguez, Lyles/Brault/Kingham, Feliz

I remember the bullpen throwing away a number of games to start the season as Kontos, Feliz, Neverauskus and Smoker pitched themselves off the team. You are essentially replacing a mediocre Nova with Archer and Kuhl with Musgrove to round out the top 4. They didn’t have a legit #5 last year for a while, and I think a case could be made that letting those three guys compete for the job in ST puts the Pirates in a better place heading into to 2019 opposed to handing the job to Nova. I actually like Kingham winning the job, he clearly hit a wall, but few guys make a seamless transition to the majors and he has the makeup of a good bottom of the rotation guy. Not sure what Lyles is, but I don’t think he’ll have a problem replacing Santana if he’s relegated to the bullpen. I think Brault should see the writing on the wall, and know that his future is in becoming a reliever and he could potentially be an asset as a LH reliever. Either way, we’re seeing young competent guys competing for playing time on the edge of the roster, that’s where the team wants to be. It’s likely a good bet that one of Crick or Rodriguez will play themselves out of the higher leverage roles in the bullpen, but I have faith in Kela and Vazquez, so it’s not going to be a big obstacle for one of the other bullpen guys to step up to fill a 7th inning role, as opposed to the 8th.

The AAA team has a collection of prospects that could see time in the majors next year and provide needed depth. The starting lineup could include, Craig, Kramer, Tucker, Hayes, Reynolds and Martin. And the rotation will have Keller, Brubaker, Holmes and Eppler.

As for the other teams in the division. I don’t care that the Reds collected the runoff from the dodgers. I don’t think they have any pitching that’s worth a damn. The Cubs will need Bryant to come back and return to form, I wouldn’t be surprised if that locker room becomes toxic with all those veterans underperforming their contracts. The Cardinals have the devil magic so they’ll be relevant, but I’m not sure they can count on what Carpenter and Mikolas repeating.  For whatever reason, the Pirates had the Brewer’s number last year, not sure how that will play out in 2019, but it’s reason to think that there are some chinks in their armor.

There are a range of outcomes for 2019, there’s reason to think they will improve over 2018, the question will of course be whether that improvement leads to more wins or just a more consistent product on the field. Remember that last year was a good baseball sandwiching a period of crap.


So you think the rotation is better without Nova and one of Brault, Kingham, and Lyles replacing him??? I could care less what we went into 2018 with, I care what we are going into 2019 with. Nova isn't a star by any means but he pitched 161  innings of 4.19 ball in 2018. He chews up innings. Lets not take this lightly, I don't see anyone capable of replacing what he provided on this roster.

Then you go on to make light of what the Reds have done. They added a legit pitcher along with 2 above average OF's. Look I don't think the Pirates are awful but they are clearly behind just about every team in this division, including the Reds.


I think the Pirates have a solid rotation and a bullpen that could be dominating. However they have absolutely no power. You can’t dismiss what the Reds have done. They now have 5 guys capable of hitting 30-40 HRs.

The Bucs simply will have no margin for error. How many 1-0 or 2-1 games can you expect to win each year?
Solid rotation sure, it is now worse after trading Nova and not signing an adequate replacement.
OrlandoMerced

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by OrlandoMerced »

Nova went from 6 innings per start in 2017 to 5.5 innings per start. He was the oldest, most expensive, and worst pitcher in the rotation. I can't understand why people think dumping him was sort of travesty. I would bet a healthy sum that whoever makes the majority of the starts behind the top four, outperforms Nova in 2019.



As for the Reds, Kemp and Puig are average corner OF's. The Reds are a good offensive team. But it's insane to think think they have surpassed the Pirates with this move.
SammyKhalifa
Posts: 3631
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by SammyKhalifa »

5D607E737C767D5F7760717776120 wrote: Nova went from 6 innings per start in 2017 to 5.5 innings per start. He was the oldest, most expensive, and worst pitcher in the rotation. I can't understand why people think dumping him was sort of travesty. I would bet a healthy sum that whoever makes the majority of the starts behind the top four, outperforms Nova in 2019.



As for the Reds, Kemp and Puig are average corner OF's. The Reds are a good offensive team. But it's insane to think think they have surpassed the Pirates with this move.


I don't think it's a travesty to lose him--he was way up and down. But I'd hope that we traded him in order to get someone better instead (I don't know how you could think of Kingham/Brault/Etc. as anything but at best a lateral move).
Bobster21

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by Bobster21 »

I think if we look at the best case scenario, the Pirates look pretty decent. But there are so many "ifs" that this scenario seems unlikely.



Will Bell find a consistent swing and be a steady hitter with power? Or will he continue to be streaky due to an inability to maintain a good swing? Will Moran develop the power expected of a corner infielder or continue to hit as he did last year? Will Bell and/or Moran become adequate defensively or continue to be liabilities in the field? Will Frazier be adequate defensively at 2B? Can Cervelli and Chisenhall buck their recent trends and stay healthy? What if anything can they expect from Kang? Who is the SS? Can Archer rebound into a top of the rotation starter? Can Musgrove find consistency? Can Williams repeat his success from last year? Can the 5th starter pitch at an acceptable level? Who is in the front end of the BP? That's a lot of uncertainty to count on.


SammyKhalifa
Posts: 3631
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by SammyKhalifa »

4D606D7C7B6A7D3D3E0F0 wrote: I think if we look at the best case scenario, the Pirates look pretty decent. But there are so many "ifs" that this scenario seems unlikely.



Will Bell find a consistent swing and be a steady hitter with power? Or will he continue to be streaky due to an inability to maintain a good swing? Will Moran develop the power expected of a corner infielder or continue to hit as he did last year? Will Bell and/or Moran become adequate defensively or continue to be liabilities in the field? Will Frazier be adequate defensively at 2B? Can Cervelli and Chisenhall buck their recent trends and stay healthy? What if anything can they expect from Kang? Who is the SS? Can Archer rebound into a top of the rotation starter? Can Musgrove find consistency? Can Williams repeat his success from last year? Can the 5th starter pitch at an acceptable level? Who is in the front end of the BP? That's a lot of uncertainty to count on.






On the same matter though, like every year here we're going to see a bunch of people saying this is a 95 loss team, etc.  It would take an equal amount of "luck" for those peoples' scenarios to happen.  Those people are just as unrealistic. 



I do think the division will be pretty good though, with perhaps even the last-place team having a winning record. 
Quail
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Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:48 pm

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Post by Quail »

Losing Nova weakened the starting staff. Dumping his salary took valuable depth (at the least) from our rotation. Now we have to cross our fingers that one of our young, unproven pitchers will fill the #5 spot in the rotation. In short, we've added some uncertainty to what was to be a position of depth and strength.



Any team built around a pitching staff must have a defense capable of complementing that strength. Last year our defense at the corner infield positions was a weakness. To compound the problem, the offensive production from Moran and Bell was disappointing at best. Assuming neither of these guys will ever be even average defensively, we need legitimate corner infield power and production from them. Perhaps Kang will rebound and provide an upgrade in both offense and defense at 3B (or even 1B), but we've already got our the fingers crossed on our other hand in hopes that he'll return to form after a two year absence from playing.



Also worth mentioning that we're expecting a former utility player in Frazier to assume full-time duties at 2B. His defense looked to be improved in the time he played there at the end of 2018, but will he sustain that over the course of a full season? And if not, what's the backup plan?



And then of course there is the matter of shortstop which remains unresolved.



Right now this team looks like one that will have some good pitching, questionable infield defense and a lineup featuring a bunch of complementary type hitters, lacking a legitimate heart of the order.
SammyKhalifa
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Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:19 am

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by SammyKhalifa »

604450585D310 wrote: Losing Nova weakened the starting staff. Dumping his salary took valuable depth (at the least) from our rotation. Now we have to cross our fingers that one of our young, unproven pitchers will fill the #5 spot in the rotation. In short, we've added some uncertainty to what was to be a position of depth and strength.



Any team built around a pitching staff must have a defense capable of complementing that strength. Last year our defense at the corner infield positions was a weakness. To compound the problem, the offensive production from Moran and Bell was disappointing at best. Assuming neither of these guys will ever be even average defensively, we need legitimate corner infield power and production from them. Perhaps Kang will rebound and provide an upgrade in both offense and defense at 3B (or even 1B), but we've already got our the fingers crossed on our other hand in hopes that he'll return to form after a two year absence from playing.



Also worth mentioning that we're expecting a former utility player in Frazier to assume full-time duties at 2B. His defense looked to be improved in the time he played there at the end of 2018, but will he sustain that over the course of a full season? And if not, what's the backup plan?



And then of course there is the matter of shortstop which remains unresolved.



Right now this team looks like one that will have some good pitching, questionable infield defense and a lineup featuring a bunch of complementary type hitters, lacking a legitimate heart of the order.
I agree, but that's also what we had last year, which ended in a winning season--and it's not like everything broke the Pirates' way.
Bobster21

Come On Pirates Do Something

Post by Bobster21 »

13212D2D390B28212C292621400 wrote: I think if we look at the best case scenario, the Pirates look pretty decent. But there are so many "ifs" that this scenario seems unlikely.



Will Bell find a consistent swing and be a steady hitter with power? Or will he continue to be streaky due to an inability to maintain a good swing? Will Moran develop the power expected of a corner infielder or continue to hit as he did last year? Will Bell and/or Moran become adequate defensively or continue to be liabilities in the field? Will Frazier be adequate defensively at 2B? Can Cervelli and Chisenhall buck their recent trends and stay healthy? What if anything can they expect from Kang? Who is the SS? Can Archer rebound into a top of the rotation starter? Can Musgrove find consistency? Can Williams repeat his success from last year? Can the 5th starter pitch at an acceptable level? Who is in the front end of the BP? That's a lot of uncertainty to count on.






On the same matter though, like every year here we're going to see a bunch of people saying this is a 95 loss team, etc.  It would take an equal amount of "luck" for those peoples' scenarios to happen.  Those people are just as unrealistic. 



I do think the division will be pretty good though, with perhaps even the last-place team having a winning record. 


I think it's reasonable to expect some of the "ifs" to work out positively and others not so much. I don't expect a terrible team nor a post season participant. My best guess is that we can expect as few as 80 or as many as 85 wins depending on how many of the "ifs" work out in the team's favor.
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