A Couple of Comments

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MaineBucs
Posts: 1145
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:51 pm

A Couple of Comments

Post by MaineBucs »

As a disappointing August for the Pirates winds to a close, I offer a few comments based on my observations of watching the team play:



1) In a season fraught with players under-performing, Jason Delay has been a real surprise. He appears to be strong defensively, and has held his own at the plate. albeit with little power. Delay's unexpected level of play reminds me of when Stallings was first recalled. When Stallings joined the Pirates there was no expectation that he would be with the team for more than a cup of coffee. Stallings, however, proved to be a real asset, particularly defensively, but also contributing as a complementary piece of the offense. Delay may not be able to maintain a .250 average, but he clearly appears capable of being a part-time catcher going forward.



2) Will Crowe (sadly) has really regressed from his great 1st month of the season. Watching him getting tagged for 2 home runs at the end of last night's game was really disappointing when it looked like the Pirates may be able to add to the Brewers' recent woes. The other relievers pitched better than should be expected (based on their track records), but Crowe looked and was all too hitable.



3) With Castro appearing to emerge as a viable long-term option, I now have a better understanding of why the Bucs were having Newman practice at 1st; even though both he and Chavis hit right-handed. Castro, as much as anyone on the team, has earned getting regular at-bats and to see if he can perform at 2nd. Although Suwinski is the better defensive left fielder, the Pirates likely will need to use him in RF much of the time so Marcano can get playing time in LF to see if can adjust to major league pitching.



4) Hayes appears to have the tendencies of a lemming in his unstoppable urge to chase pitches low and away. If I were a manager, I would never have a pitcher throw him a strike. Hayes has been a real disappointment this year, and at this point, he has not shown that he is worth the confidence and the contract that the team invested in him.



5) The Pirates have a slew of marginal relievers on the roster. It will be interesting to see who the Pirates will choose to carry on the roster through-out the winter.



6) I know the Bucs lost last night, but it sure would be nice to see Kellar come up with tossing a good game, with the hitters continuing to recognize that not all pitchers are invincible, and to do what they didn't do last night, which is to win.



7) Lastly, I recognize that I began watching baseball when the main stats you regularly checked on were the batting average, RBI's, runs scored, and home runs; and for pitchers, the won-loss record, the number of innings pitched, and the ERA. I adjusted and actually embraced the additional analysis first provided by Bill James and others. And while I recognize that more recent stats such as barrel-rates, exit velocities, fly ball trajectories, and spin rates are extension of folks trying to get a better understanding of a player's skill-set, I am beginning to get worn down by the constant barrage of stats, rather than focusing on the team's performance. I am particularly annoyed when I hear that a won-loss record for a pitcher is no longer important. Oh well, guess we will soon be getting stats like ghost runner strand rates, and ghost runner RBI's, together with a slew of new analyses associated with implementation of the electronic strike-zone.



Gotta hope that the team performs better in September than it has in August.
JollyRoger
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:31 pm

A Couple of Comments

Post by JollyRoger »

Mainer



A couple of comments to your post. Regarding #4; I honestly do not think that Hayes is our best 3B. I think in the limited action I have seen, I believe Castro is an equal to Hayes on defense and he is a superior hitter that will offer more power and he is a switch hitter. If Hayes does not significantly improve next year then I think you have to trade him and hand the job to Castro. We have plenty of middle infield prospects and Castro can play 3B.



On #7, I agree with you whole heartedly. Tough to keep up with all the new key stats. They should throw away complete games as that is a thing of the past and is now meaningless.
Bobster21

A Couple of Comments

Post by Bobster21 »

I like the Delay/Stallings comparison. Delay has done a good job.



Crowe was an average at best minor league pitcher and a flop as a starter last year. Relievers are hard to gauge because they pitch in short spurts. The best are rarely ineffective and the bad ones are frequently ineffective. The mediocre ones like Crowe go good and bad and you never know what you're going to get.



Of all the young players who had a chance to make an impact this year, Castro has hit the best. But defense is another story. He was weak at SS and made several mental errors at 2B. Maybe he could be adequate at 3B but Hayes is a superior defensive player, even if he doesn't walk on water as Greg Brown would have us believe. But Hayes needs to be more than a pedestrian hitter at a corner infield position. But based on his minor league stats, I think Hayes is hitting about as well as can be expected.



As for stats, I love stats I can compute and verify. I don't like the ones that are nothing more than a value and/or measure hypotheticals. How many wins is a player worth? How many more wins is he worth than a hypothetical replacement? How many runs does he save? These are just math equations that can't be verified. The value means nothing other than whose value is higher than whose. But BA, OBP, ERA are concrete evidence of how a player performs. A pitcher's W-L record matters. There's more involved than just pitching but when Denny McLain had consecutive seasons with 16, 20, 17, 31 and 24 wins, thar's a great pitcher. When Warren Spahn wins 20+ games 13 times plus seasons of 18 and 17, that's great pitching. W-L doesn't mean everything, but it means a lot.
2drfischer@gmail.c

A Couple of Comments

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

4B666B7A7D6C7B3B38090 wrote: I like the Delay/Stallings comparison. Delay has done a good job.



Crowe was an average at best minor league pitcher and a flop as a starter last year. Relievers are hard to gauge because they pitch in short spurts. The best are rarely ineffective and the bad ones are frequently ineffective. The mediocre ones like Crowe go good and bad and you never know what you're going to get.



Of all the young players who had a chance to make an impact this year, Castro has hit the best. But defense is another story. He was weak at SS and made several mental errors at 2B. Maybe he could be adequate at 3B but Hayes is a superior defensive player, even if he doesn't walk on water as Greg Brown would have us believe. But Hayes needs to be more than a pedestrian hitter at a corner infield position. But based on his minor league stats, I think Hayes is hitting about as well as can be expected. 



As for stats, I love stats I can compute and verify. I don't like the ones that are nothing more than a value and/or measure hypotheticals. How many wins is a player worth? How many more wins is he worth than a hypothetical replacement? How many runs does he save? These are just math equations that can't be verified. The value means nothing other than whose value is higher than whose. But BA, OBP, ERA are concrete evidence of how a player performs. A pitcher's W-L record matters. There's more involved than just pitching but when Denny McLain had consecutive seasons with 16, 20, 17, 31 and 24 wins, thar's a great pitcher. When Warren Spahn wins 20+ games 13 times plus seasons of 18 and 17, that's great pitching. W-L doesn't mean everything, but it means a lot. 


Your third paragraph is what I've felt about the new analytics.  Admittedly, I'm older and prefer what I'm used to.  But like you, I have a much more clearer understanding of statistics that are easily computed, like batting average, slugging %, wins and losses, and ERA.  And as you said, they may be minimized by the seamheads, but they still tell an important story.
ArnoldRothstein

A Couple of Comments

Post by ArnoldRothstein »

Reporting here that the Pirates are at least talking to Roberto Perez about a return next year:



https://twitter.com/JMackeyPG/status/15 ... 3790808068
skinnyhorse
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:19 am

A Couple of Comments

Post by skinnyhorse »

Unfortunately hope/luck is all we have. There is a great lack of talent which is what we really need. Our player development/evaluation continues to be a disaster through multiple management regimes. So it is clear the owner and community has no interest in this baseball team. It's time for this team to be moved somewhere, where a community demands better. I never thought I would say that but it's impossible not to notice the community is okay with the worst team in baseball year after year after year. Baseball has created this sorry situation by revenue sharing. It's okay to help teams for a few down years but to allow teams to get paid for decades to lose is ridiculous. It's like generational welfare doesn't encourage folks to go back to work just the opposite. Nutting has no reason to go to work and build a winning team, he's happy with this gig and the community could care less.



5D71797E7552657363100 wrote: As a disappointing August for the Pirates winds to a close, I offer a few comments based on my observations of watching the team play:



1)  In a season fraught with players under-performing, Jason Delay has been a real surprise.  He appears to be strong defensively, and has held his own at the plate. albeit with little power.  Delay's unexpected level of play reminds me of when Stallings was first recalled.  When Stallings joined the Pirates there was no expectation that he would be with the team for more than a cup of coffee.  Stallings, however, proved to be a real asset, particularly defensively, but also contributing as a complementary piece of the offense.   Delay may not be able to maintain a .250 average, but he clearly appears capable of being a part-time catcher going forward.



2)  Will Crowe  (sadly) has really regressed from his great 1st month of the season.  Watching him getting tagged for 2 home runs at the end of last night's game was really disappointing when it looked like the Pirates may be able to add to the Brewers' recent woes.  The other relievers pitched better than should be expected (based on their track records), but Crowe looked and was all too hitable.



3)  With Castro appearing to emerge as a viable long-term option, I now have a better understanding of why the Bucs were having Newman practice at 1st; even though both he and Chavis hit right-handed.   Castro, as much as anyone on the team, has earned getting regular at-bats and to see if he can perform at 2nd.  Although Suwinski is the better defensive left fielder, the Pirates likely will need to use him in RF much of the time so Marcano can get playing time in LF to see if can adjust to major league pitching.



4)  Hayes appears to have the tendencies of a lemming in his unstoppable urge to chase pitches low and away.  If I were a manager, I would never have a pitcher throw him a strike.   Hayes has been a real disappointment this year, and at this point, he has not shown that he is worth the confidence and the contract that the team invested in him.



5)  The Pirates have a slew of marginal relievers on the roster.   It will be interesting to see who the Pirates will choose to carry on the roster through-out the winter.   



6)  I know the Bucs lost last night, but it sure would be nice to see Kellar come up with tossing a good game, with the hitters continuing to recognize that not all pitchers are invincible, and to do what they didn't do last night, which is to win.



7)  Lastly, I recognize that I began watching baseball when the main stats you regularly checked on were the batting average, RBI's, runs scored, and home runs; and for pitchers, the won-loss record, the number of innings pitched, and the ERA.  I adjusted and actually embraced the additional analysis first provided by Bill James and others.  And while I recognize that more recent stats such as barrel-rates, exit velocities, fly ball trajectories, and spin rates are extension of folks trying to get a better understanding of a player's skill-set, I am beginning to get worn down by the constant barrage of stats, rather than focusing on the team's performance.  I am particularly annoyed when I hear that a won-loss record for a pitcher is no longer important.  Oh well, guess we will soon be getting stats like ghost runner strand rates, and ghost runner RBI's, together with a slew of new analyses associated with implementation of the electronic strike-zone.      



Gotta hope that the team performs better in September than it has in August.               
WildwoodDave2

A Couple of Comments

Post by WildwoodDave2 »

445C5E59594E5F58454452370 wrote: Unfortunately hope/luck is all we have.  There is a great lack of talent which is what we really need.  Our player development/evaluation continues to be a disaster through multiple management regimes.  So it is clear the owner and community has no interest in this baseball team.  It's time for this team to be moved somewhere, where a community demands better.  I never thought I would say that but it's impossible not to notice the community is okay with the worst team in baseball year after year after year.   Baseball has created this sorry situation by revenue sharing.  It's okay to help teams for a few down years but to allow teams to get paid for decades to lose is ridiculous.   It's like generational welfare doesn't encourage folks to go back to work just the opposite. Nutting has no reason to go to work and build a winning team, he's happy with this gig and the community could care less.   



As a disappointing August for the Pirates winds to a close, I offer a few comments based on my observations of watching the team play:



1)  In a season fraught with players under-performing, Jason Delay has been a real surprise.  He appears to be strong defensively, and has held his own at the plate. albeit with little power.  Delay's unexpected level of play reminds me of when Stallings was first recalled.  When Stallings joined the Pirates there was no expectation that he would be with the team for more than a cup of coffee.  Stallings, however, proved to be a real asset, particularly defensively, but also contributing as a complementary piece of the offense.   Delay may not be able to maintain a .250 average, but he clearly appears capable of being a part-time catcher going forward.



2)  Will Crowe  (sadly) has really regressed from his great 1st month of the season.  Watching him getting tagged for 2 home runs at the end of last night's game was really disappointing when it looked like the Pirates may be able to add to the Brewers' recent woes.  The other relievers pitched better than should be expected (based on their track records), but Crowe looked and was all too hitable.



3)  With Castro appearing to emerge as a viable long-term option, I now have a better understanding of why the Bucs were having Newman practice at 1st; even though both he and Chavis hit right-handed.   Castro, as much as anyone on the team, has earned getting regular at-bats and to see if he can perform at 2nd.  Although Suwinski is the better defensive left fielder, the Pirates likely will need to use him in RF much of the time so Marcano can get playing time in LF to see if can adjust to major league pitching.



4)  Hayes appears to have the tendencies of a lemming in his unstoppable urge to chase pitches low and away.  If I were a manager, I would never have a pitcher throw him a strike.   Hayes has been a real disappointment this year, and at this point, he has not shown that he is worth the confidence and the contract that the team invested in him.



5)  The Pirates have a slew of marginal relievers on the roster.   It will be interesting to see who the Pirates will choose to carry on the roster through-out the winter.   



6)  I know the Bucs lost last night, but it sure would be nice to see Kellar come up with tossing a good game, with the hitters continuing to recognize that not all pitchers are invincible, and to do what they didn't do last night, which is to win.



7)  Lastly, I recognize that I began watching baseball when the main stats you regularly checked on were the batting average, RBI's, runs scored, and home runs; and for pitchers, the won-loss record, the number of innings pitched, and the ERA.  I adjusted and actually embraced the additional analysis first provided by Bill James and others.  And while I recognize that more recent stats such as barrel-rates, exit velocities, fly ball trajectories, and spin rates are extension of folks trying to get a better understanding of a player's skill-set, I am beginning to get worn down by the constant barrage of stats, rather than focusing on the team's performance.  I am particularly annoyed when I hear that a won-loss record for a pitcher is no longer important.  Oh well, guess we will soon be getting stats like ghost runner strand rates, and ghost runner RBI's, together with a slew of new analyses associated with implementation of the electronic strike-zone.      



Gotta hope that the team performs better in September than it has in August.               

Would like to add to your list. Have you noticed that Chavis has a problem with the fastball at the letters. He strike out on that pitch quite often. It almost seems like his size makes it difficult for him to hit that pitch. Someone like doc might be able to comment on that
MaineBucs
Posts: 1145
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:51 pm

A Couple of Comments

Post by MaineBucs »

Chavis has always struck out at an elevated rate in his major league career, and he rarely walks. In fact, this is the first year, albeit not by much, that Chavis is striking out in less than one-third of his at bats.



Chavis plays really hard, can deliver the occasional home run, and seems to know what he is doing on a ball field. His former teammates also seemed to like seeing him when the Red Sox visited Pittsburgh in August. That said, his OBP and strike-outs indicate that he is not a long-term answer at first or anywhere else.



At present, I believe the best long-term answers for first include moving Cruz to first or platooning Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis at the position when the other is catching or serving as a DH. I do not hold out much hope for Mason Martin, and will see if another team claims him in this year's Rule 5 draft.
2drfischer@gmail.c

A Couple of Comments

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

"Unfortunately hope/luck is all we have. There is a great lack of talent which is what we really need. Our player development/evaluation continues to be a disaster through multiple management regimes. So it is clear the owner and community has no interest in this baseball team. [highlight]It's time for this team to be moved somewhere, where a community demands better.[/highlight] I never thought I would say that but it's impossible not to notice the community is okay with the worst team in baseball year after year after year. Baseball has created this sorry situation by revenue sharing. It's okay to help teams for a few down years but to allow teams to get paid for decades to lose is ridiculous. It's like generational welfare doesn't encourage folks to go back to work just the opposite. Nutting has no reason to go to work and build a winning team, he's happy with this gig and the community could care less."



What I've highlighted I could never agree with. It would be a significant loss to western PA for the Pirates to leave, not just for the economic reasons, but for cultural reasons as well. The Alleghenys/Pirates have been playing baseball here since 1883. They're as much a part of the fabric of this community as any neighborhood, historical site, or cultural activity. Each of us would suffer some degree of loss if they were no longer here. To suggest that Nutting take the team away is irresponsible and indicates a complete lack of an understanding of the consequences.
2drfischer@gmail.c

A Couple of Comments

Post by 2drfischer@gmail.c »

6856535B4850505B7B5E495A0D3F0 wrote: Unfortunately hope/luck is all we have.  There is a great lack of talent which is what we really need.  Our player development/evaluation continues to be a disaster through multiple management regimes.  So it is clear the owner and community has no interest in this baseball team.  It's time for this team to be moved somewhere, where a community demands better.  I never thought I would say that but it's impossible not to notice the community is okay with the worst team in baseball year after year after year.   Baseball has created this sorry situation by revenue sharing.  It's okay to help teams for a few down years but to allow teams to get paid for decades to lose is ridiculous.   It's like generational welfare doesn't encourage folks to go back to work just the opposite. Nutting has no reason to go to work and build a winning team, he's happy with this gig and the community could care less.   



As a disappointing August for the Pirates winds to a close, I offer a few comments based on my observations of watching the team play:



1)  In a season fraught with players under-performing, Jason Delay has been a real surprise.  He appears to be strong defensively, and has held his own at the plate. albeit with little power.  Delay's unexpected level of play reminds me of when Stallings was first recalled.  When Stallings joined the Pirates there was no expectation that he would be with the team for more than a cup of coffee.  Stallings, however, proved to be a real asset, particularly defensively, but also contributing as a complementary piece of the offense.   Delay may not be able to maintain a .250 average, but he clearly appears capable of being a part-time catcher going forward.



2)  Will Crowe  (sadly) has really regressed from his great 1st month of the season.  Watching him getting tagged for 2 home runs at the end of last night's game was really disappointing when it looked like the Pirates may be able to add to the Brewers' recent woes.  The other relievers pitched better than should be expected (based on their track records), but Crowe looked and was all too hitable.



3)  With Castro appearing to emerge as a viable long-term option, I now have a better understanding of why the Bucs were having Newman practice at 1st; even though both he and Chavis hit right-handed.   Castro, as much as anyone on the team, has earned getting regular at-bats and to see if he can perform at 2nd.  Although Suwinski is the better defensive left fielder, the Pirates likely will need to use him in RF much of the time so Marcano can get playing time in LF to see if can adjust to major league pitching.



4)  Hayes appears to have the tendencies of a lemming in his unstoppable urge to chase pitches low and away.  If I were a manager, I would never have a pitcher throw him a strike.   Hayes has been a real disappointment this year, and at this point, he has not shown that he is worth the confidence and the contract that the team invested in him.



5)  The Pirates have a slew of marginal relievers on the roster.   It will be interesting to see who the Pirates will choose to carry on the roster through-out the winter.   



6)  I know the Bucs lost last night, but it sure would be nice to see Kellar come up with tossing a good game, with the hitters continuing to recognize that not all pitchers are invincible, and to do what they didn't do last night, which is to win.



7)  Lastly, I recognize that I began watching baseball when the main stats you regularly checked on were the batting average, RBI's, runs scored, and home runs; and for pitchers, the won-loss record, the number of innings pitched, and the ERA.  I adjusted and actually embraced the additional analysis first provided by Bill James and others.  And while I recognize that more recent stats such as barrel-rates, exit velocities, fly ball trajectories, and spin rates are extension of folks trying to get a better understanding of a player's skill-set, I am beginning to get worn down by the constant barrage of stats, rather than focusing on the team's performance.  I am particularly annoyed when I hear that a won-loss record for a pitcher is no longer important.  Oh well, guess we will soon be getting stats like ghost runner strand rates, and ghost runner RBI's, together with a slew of new analyses associated with implementation of the electronic strike-zone.      



Gotta hope that the team performs better in September than it has in August.               

Would like to add to your list. Have you noticed that Chavis has a problem with the fastball at the letters. He strike out on that pitch quite often. It almost seems like his size makes it difficult for him to hit that pitch. [highlight]Someone like doc might be able to comment on that[/highlight]


If I were to write all that I know about hitting, I could record it on the tip of my little finger. But I don't think Chavis's size has much to do with it, it's that most hitters have difficulty hitting high fastballs. That's why hard throwers find success working in that part of the strike zone.
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