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Author Topic: PECOTA 2011 Projected Standings  (Read 10508 times)
gnarburger
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« on: February 09, 2011, 11:27:34 AM »

National League

East
Philadelphia Phillies - 94-68
Atlanta Braves - 91-71
Florida Marlins - 81-81
New York Mets - 79-83
Washington Nationals - 69-93

Central
Cincinnati Reds - 93-69
St. Louis Cardinals - 85-77
Houston Astros - 76-86
Milwaukee Brewers - 75-87
Chicago Cubs - 70-92
Pittsburgh Pirates - 55-107

West
San Francisco Giants - 91-71
San Diego Padres - 90-72
Colorado Rockies - 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers - 79-83
Arizona Diamondbacks - 67-95

American League

East
New York Yankees - 100-62
Tampa Bay Rays - 98-64
Boston Red Sox - 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays - 83-79
Baltimore Orioles - 62-100

Central
Minnesota Twins - 95-67
Chicago White Sox - 89-73
Detroit Tigers - 82-80
Cleveland Indians - 67-95
Kansas City Royals - 66-96

West
Texas Rangers - 91-71
Oakland A's - 82-80
Los Angeles Angels - 78-84
Seattle Mariners - 62-100
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WTM
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2011, 11:31:26 AM »

So who's the top draft prospect for 2012?
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gnarburger
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2011, 11:35:37 AM »

I was going to mention the Pirates staying at 57 wins, but then I realized that this looks like the laziest projection of all time.  Just looking at the NL there are only 3 teams who have their record move 3 or more games from last year and 7 who have the exact same record.  The only change in the standings is the Brewers falling behind the Astros (!?).  In the AL the only change in the standings is the Yankees pulling ahead of the Rays (but still having both make the playoffs).  Somehow the Yankees improve by 5 games and the Red Sox stay exactly the same.
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Steve Zielinski
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2011, 11:35:53 AM »

Well, PECOTA makes conservative predictions for players even when the mechanism believes those players will improve. So....
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Steve Z
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2011, 11:37:37 AM »

National League

East
Philadelphia Phillies - 94-68
Atlanta Braves - 91-71
Florida Marlins - 81-81
New York Mets - 79-83
Washington Nationals - 69-93

Central
Cincinnati Reds - 93-69
St. Louis Cardinals - 85-77
Houston Astros - 76-86
Milwaukee Brewers - 75-87
Chicago Cubs - 70-92
Pittsburgh Pirates - 55-107

West
San Francisco Giants - 91-71
San Diego Padres - 90-72
Colorado Rockies - 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers - 79-83
Arizona Diamondbacks - 67-95

American League

East
New York Yankees - 100-62
Tampa Bay Rays - 98-64
Boston Red Sox - 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays - 83-79
Baltimore Orioles - 62-100

Central
Minnesota Twins - 95-67
Chicago White Sox - 89-73
Detroit Tigers - 82-80
Cleveland Indians - 67-95
Kansas City Royals - 66-96

West
Texas Rangers - 91-71
Oakland A's - 82-80
Los Angeles Angels - 78-84
Seattle Mariners - 62-100
Looks like I'm not out on the branch alone, when I said the Pirates are a best case 100 loss team.  I think 105 losses is easily within reach for this team.

Now here's the upside, relating to WTM's post.  I'm looking forward to a list of first round picks that Alvarez, Taillon, Rendon, and the top pick in 2012.  
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gorillagogo
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2011, 11:38:56 AM »

There are some really surprising numbers in there. The Padres are going to finish with the same record as last year after trading Gonzalez? The Red Sox won't be better after bringing in Gonzalez and Crawford? The Cubs and Brewers are each going to have worse records than last year after each made some big acquisitions?
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GoBucs21
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2011, 11:41:07 AM »

There are some really surprising numbers in there. The Padres are going to finish with the same record as last year after trading Gonzalez? The Red Sox won't be better after bringing in Gonzalez and Crawford? The Cubs and Brewers are each going to have worse records than last year after each made some big acquisitions?
Wait for PECOTA v1.1 to come out.  Didn't they make some sort of error last year that had to be corrected?
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Steve Zielinski
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2011, 11:44:07 AM »

I was going to mention the Pirates staying at 57 wins, but then I realized that this looks like the laziest projection of all time.  Just looking at the NL there are only 3 teams who have their record move 3 or more games from last year and 7 who have the exact same record.  The only change in the standings is the Brewers falling behind the Astros (!?).  In the AL the only change in the standings is the Yankees pulling ahead of the Rays (but still having both make the playoffs).  Somehow the Yankees improve by 5 games and the Red Sox stay exactly the same.

It's not a lazy projection. Historical numbers provide the input, PECOTA generates the output. It's a mathematical mechanism. Lazy is not one of its qualities.
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Steve Z
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2011, 11:49:20 AM »

How accurate was PECOTA for 2010 I wonder ?
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Roberto218
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2011, 11:54:00 AM »

This is scary. I bet that PECOTA underestimates Andrew and Pedro, has Walker regressing and has horrible  news about our pitching staff. On the bright side, MLB network has Andrew #1 in center, Walker in the top 10 at second, and Pedro just outside the top 10 at third. I say sign Andrew now to a long term deal before he has an MVP season.
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blackmax
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2011, 11:54:26 AM »

How accurate was PECOTA for 2010 I wonder ?

Last year, they had the Bucs winning 70 games.  They missed the Giants winning the West and the Rangers the AL central.
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GoBucs21
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« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2011, 11:56:13 AM »

This is scary. I bet that PECOTA underestimates Andrew and Pedro, has Walker regressing and has horrible  news about our pitching staff. On the bright side, MLB network has Andrew #1 in center, Walker in the top 10 at second, and Pedro just outside the top 10 at third. I say sign Andrew now to a long term deal before he has an MVP season.
Agree signing McCutchen to a Longoria type deal.  The offense isn't the reason this team will be so bad.  The pitching is, especially the starting pitching.
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People say I am ruthless. I am not ruthless. And if I find the man who is calling me ruthless, I shall destroy him.
Robert F. Kennedy

Moral courage is a more rare commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence.
Robert F. Kennedy
gorillagogo
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« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2011, 11:56:24 AM »

This is scary. I bet that PECOTA underestimates Andrew and Pedro, has Walker regressing and has horrible  news about our pitching staff. On the bright side, MLB network has Andrew #1 in center, Walker in the top 10 at second, and Pedro just outside the top 10 at third. I say sign Andrew now to a long term deal before he has an MVP season.

I'm ticked off the team never seemed to pursue this during the offseason.
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wallybackman19
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« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2011, 12:09:21 PM »

Apparently    Lance McCullers...

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5117

Better list..

http://allamericanfoundation.pointstreaksites.com/view/allamericanfoundation/news/mlb-2012-draft
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JollyRoger
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2011, 12:43:22 PM »

I think the Yankees at 100 wins is a reach.
The Phillies at only 94 wins seems too low.
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