2013 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

[georgejones]

I believe Dave Cameron has stated a team of replacement players would accrue around 44 wins.  If that's true, the estimated standings would look like this for 2013:

NL EAST
Nationals 91 - 71
Phillies 79 - 83
Marlins 65 - 97
Mets 63 - 99
Braves ?

NL CENTRAL
Reds 90 - 72
Brewers 79 - 83
Pirates 75 - 87
Cardinals 75 - 87
Cubs 74 - 88

NL WEST
Giants 87 - 75
Dodgers 86 - 76
Diamondbacks 80 - 82
Rockies 77 - 85
Padres 69 - 93

If there's a legitimate way to estimate a team's record using ZiPS, that's not it.

I'm basing these WAR totals on Fangraphs' rough depth charts, which look like this:



They only show ten pitchers and ten position players, so of course the projected WAR totals are low.

[dave3BA]

It's definitely not made to be taken literally, but it does offer a look at how teams stack up.

[georgejones]

That Cardinals number really threw me.  It's only because of great relief pitching that they even tied the Pirates projection.  I'm thinking they finish a comfortable margin ahead of not only the Pirates, but the Brewers as well.

Yeah, this method does no favors for the Cardinals.

For one, there was discussion that the Cards' offensive projections were too conservative because a lot of their hitters are high BABiP types. ZiPS is slow to acknowledge BABiP as a skill and accordingly projects these players conservatively.

Secondly, Oscar Taveras (projected 2.6 WAR) isn't on their rough depth chart, though he will definitely contribute this year.

Finally, I think their rotation is better than projected. They have a lot of quality depth. Also, in my mind Kyle Lohse remains an option for them, since they're the only team that won't lose a draft pick for signing him.

[georgejones]

It's definitely not made to be taken literally, but it does offer a look at how teams stack up.

[georgejones]

Ok, Fangraphs finally posted the Braves today, so we now have the entire National League:


Was
IF: 16
OF: 10
SP: 17
RP: 4
TOT: 47

Cin
IF: 17
OF: 7
SP: 18
RP: 4
TOT: 46

SF
IF: 18
OF: 9
SP: 13
RP: 3
TOT: 43

Atl
IF: 13
OF: 11
SP: 11
RP: 7
TOT: 42

LAD
IF: 15
OF: 9
SP: 15
RP: 3
TOT: 42

Ari
IF: 13
OF: 4
SP: 14
RP: 5
TOT: 36

Mil
IF: 13
OF: 10
SP: 11
RP: 1
TOT: 35

Phi
IF: 12
OF: 5
SP: 15
RP: 3
TOT: 35

Col
IF: 10
OF: 7
SP: 9
RP: 7
TOT: 33

Pit
IF: 13
OF: 9
SP: 10
RP: 1
TOT: 33

StL
IF: 12
OF: 7
SP: 8
RP: 4
TOT: 31

ChN
IF: 12
OF: 4
SP: 11
RP: 3
TOT: 30

SD
IF: 10
OF: 8
SP: 5
RP: 2
TOT: 25

Mia
IF: 6
OF: 9
SP: 5
RP: 1
TOT: 21

NYN
IF: 11
OF: 2
SP: 6
RP: 0
TOT: 19


I've (generously) given the Pirates' rotation a total of 3 extra points for signing Karstens and Liriano.

After all this, I'd say the biggest surprise is how bad the Cardinals look. If St. Louis really does stumble this year, that would open the door to a much more interesting year for the Pirates--possibly a 2nd-place finish in the division. But most likely, we're looking at a 75-80 win season.

[ECBucs]

why is St. Louis outfield so low?  I would expect better from the players they have.

It will be great if Cards do take a fall and have the Bucs pass them in the standings but I don't expect that to happen.

[georgejones]

ZiPs just doesn't seem all that impressed with Beltran (2), Holliday (3) and Jon Jay (2). I hope it's right!