MLB Trade Rumors on 2011 Pirate Rotation

[kansasfan]

If they can get Shields for Owens, Holt, and Miller, I will tentatively support it.

The Rays have stated they will not have a payroll over $60M next year.  They have 6 starting pitchers.  They will have no closers (not having a closer last year really cost them and having a real closer this year has helped tremendously -- closers are kind of important on teams that regularly have leads late in the game).  And they will almost certainly lose either Crawford or Pena.

The Pirates can take on payroll next year.  They need starting pitchers.  They have 2 closers (a completely unnecessary luxury on a losing team).

I think the Pirates could get Shields for (1) either Hanrahan or Meek; plus (2) one of the 4 LH potential power hitters we have that are cheap (Jones, Clement, Moss, Bowker); plus (3) one of the 4 A+ starting pitchers (Adcock, Pribanic, Leach, Alderson).  The Rays could pick which player they want out of each group.  This accomplishes what both teams need and are able to do payroll-wise and roster/prospect-wise.

[By the way, I'm not saying that any of the 4 LH hitters I mentioned are the equal of Pena or Crawford -- obviously they are inferior.  However, those two guys will cost $10M+ in free agency, while I believe all 4 of our guys are league minimum.  TB will find a way to make them useful -- after all, they've used Willie Aybar at DH since Burrell & Blalock flamed out and are still doing pretty well in the standings!]

[epoc]

I think the Rays' need to dump salary in the form of starting pitching is a bit overstated. The contracts of Crawford, Soriano, and Pena are coming off the books at the end of the season, as are those of Qualls, Navarro (non-tender), and probably Bartlett (trade, since they have Brignac, Rodriguez, Aybar, and Zobrist). They only have $17.7MM committed for next year, plus arb raises for Upton and Garza. Their only needs are a LHH 1B/DH and relief pitching, and they'll have $15-20MM to work with even if they want to keep their payroll under $45MM. That said, they do need a closer, so kansasfan's proposal might be intriguing. However, given that they don't have to trade one of their pitchers, I'd imagine they'll only trade Shields if they're blown away by an offer (i.e., if someone gives them an equally affordable piece that fits the holes on their 2011 roster). Two teams in our own division that come to mind are the Brewers and the Reds. The Reds would give up Yonder Alonso, Francisco Cordero, and eat ~$8MM of the latter's contract. The Brewers would have to work out a three-way because the Rays probably don't want to pay Fielder, but by all accounts the Brewers are looking to trade Fielder for pitching, and a three-way where Shields goes to Milwaukee, Fielder goes to a third party, and younger pieces go to Tampa makes a lot of sense.

[Born4RF]

...
I think the Pirates could get Shields for (1) either Hanrahan or Meek; plus (2) one of the 4 LH potential power hitters we have that are cheap (Jones, Clement, Moss, Bowker); plus (3) one of the 4 A+ starting pitchers (Adcock, Pribanic, Leach, Alderson).  The Rays could pick which player they want out of each group.  This accomplishes what both teams need and are able to do payroll-wise and roster/prospect-wise.

... Burrell & Blalock flamed out and are still doing pretty well in the standings!...

2 good points:  Hanrahan, Jones and Pribanic (my choice if I'm TBay) for Shields would be the ideal trade target if I'm convinced Shields doesn't have a physical problem.  He is a potential stopper and I can live without any of the traded pieces, even if they live up to optimal expectations.  However I wouldn't go higher on price for anyone because we cannot trade away our core of 1-2 year away pitchers. 

The second good point is pointing out how risky it is bringing in high priced hitters expecting them to regain former glory.  A Jones is a better risk, versus investment, than a Pena in my humble opinion.  This makes a package including him more enticing than we may think.