Something worth listening to

[BuccoFla]

Rocco Demaro had Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus on his show to talk about Pirates prospects. It is only about 20 minutes long and is available to listen to at http://www.wpgb.com/cc-common/podcast/single_podcast.html?podcast=extrainnings.xml It is the May 5th show.

[agent00]

Can somebody post a cliffnotes version? I can't listen to that at the moment.

[BuccoFla]

Here are a couple highlights.

1. Diego Moreno - One pitch guy (fastball) who will probably get hit when he moves up to AA

2. Tony Sanchez - Won't know if he is for real until he moves up because college hitters should do well in A ball

3. Starling Marte - 15 Hr upside but probably not a superstar just an above average regular

4. Brock Holt - Probably not able to play short and won't hit enough to play 2B. Too small only weighs 160lbs

5. Quincy Latimore - Could play in the majors but probably only a 4th outfielder

6. Nathan Adcock - 5th starter or middle reliever

7. Robbie Grossman - Might not be able to stay in Centerfield. Not enough power and too many strikeouts to play corner outfield

[thegreatchris]

Here are a couple highlights.

1. Diego Moreno - One pitch guy (fastball) who will probably get hit when he moves up to AA

2. Tony Sanchez - Won't know if he is for real until he moves up because college hitters should do well in A ball

3. Starling Marte - 15 Hr upside but probably not a superstar just an above average regular

4. Brock Holt - Probably not able to play short and won't hit enough to play 2B. Too small only weighs 160lbs

5. Quincy Latimore - Could play in the majors but probably only a 4th outfielder

6. Nathan Adcock - 5th starter or middle reliever

If those are the highlights, what are the lowlights??

[81omar]

    Good stuff.Wasnt as bad as BuccoFla made it sound,he likes Sanchez and Morris,Marte will be a nice major leaguer he said. Too early to call on others because they are 3 steps from the majors and it sounds like he likes to see AA success before he really begins to like guys as prospects which basically takes the guess work out of it because anyone who does well in AA really is just a phone call away from the majors. If they dont make it you could always point to his AA stats as why you thought he would be good.

[gnarburger]

That was actually KG being pretty positive.  He said they're one of the few teams with more than 2 or 3 guys who he's very interested in, and even more who he at least keeps an eye on.  The problem is that at that level it's tough to say how many will work out.  It's just unrealistic to expect a bunch of big league successes out of an A+ team.  Based on the numbers he's looked at you're lucky to have 4 in your entire system at any one time.

He was very positive on Morris and said this is what a lot of people have been expecting and he seems to have put something together.  Above average velocity and a killer curve.  Should be at AA before the all star break.  Nothing but positive things to say so far.

Said similar things about Locke, but said he's had some mechanical issues.  Had been a disappointment to this point, but combining late last year with this year he might be figuring something out.

Called Adcock "a big leaguer" which is actually a compliment, just doesn't have the ceiling.  Doesn't have the great stuff, relies on being "crafty".

Said the things he's saying about Sanchez are kind of unfair since it's not his fault he's not in AA, but he understands why he isn't there yet.  He basically just says wait and see before you get too excited about the offense.

Had some praise for Starling Marte.  Said he looks to be more advanced at the plate this year and has much better pitch selection.  Called him a "really good outfielder in the big leagues".

Jeremy Farrell: not a prospect.

Quincy Latimore: kind of a prospect.  Eventual 4th outfielder type ceiling.

Robbie Grossman was expected to hit for good power, but he hasn't shown it yet.  May not have the speed to stay in center, and he strikes out way too much.  Not good signs.

[Dale Berras Stash]

That was actually KG being pretty positive.  He said they're one of the few teams with more than 2 or 3 guys who he's very interested in, and even more who he at least keeps an eye on.  The problem is that at that level it's tough to say how many will work out.  It's just unrealistic to expect a bunch of big league successes out of an A+ team.  Based on the numbers he's looked at you're lucky to have 4 in your entire system at any one time.

He was very positive on Morris and said this is what a lot of people have been expecting and he seems to have put something together.  Above average velocity and a killer curve.  Should be at AA before the all star break.  Nothing but positive things to say so far.

Said similar things about Locke, but said he's had some mechanical issues.  Had been a disappointment to this point, but combining late last year with this year he might be figuring something out.

Called Adcock "a big leaguer" which is actually a compliment, just doesn't have the ceiling.  Doesn't have the great stuff, relies on being "crafty".

Said the things he's saying about Sanchez are kind of unfair since it's not his fault he's not in AA, but he understands why he isn't there yet.  He basically just says wait and see before you get too excited about the offense.

Had some praise for Starling Marte.  Said he looks to be more advanced at the plate this year and has much better pitch selection.  Called him a "really good outfielder in the big leagues".

Jeremy Farrell: not a prospect.

Quincy Latimore: kind of a prospect.  Eventual 4th outfielder type ceiling.

Robbie Grossman was expected to hit for good power, but he hasn't shown it yet.  May not have the speed to stay in center, and he strikes out way too much.  Not good signs.

Agree with gnar.
Very positive review from KG and it's not just because he's on a PGH radio station.  When he said that Bradenton is the first FSL box score that he looks at every night....impressive.

I did find it interesting that he said at any time in a system (from AAA to GCL), there are only 4 future ML starters (1 position starter, 1 bench guy, 1 starting pitcher, 1 reliever).  He said he's crunched the numbers on it.  That's kind of sobering when you start to think about who makes it from this short list:
Alvarez
Tabata
Lincoln
Sanchez
Marte
d'Arnaud
Morris
Owens

Those are 8 guys that we all have high hopes for.  Only 1/2 of them will make it.  And that's not even factoring in 20 more guys that I could list that I like, especially relievers.

[5-ish Finkle]

Those are 8 guys that we all have high hopes for.  Only 1/2 of them will make it.  And that's not even factoring in 20 more guys that I could list that I like, especially relievers.

Well, another way to consider it is that if he's correct then 50% of that list 'makes it.' 

I would bet it will be lower, so a 50% hit rate on those 8 would likely be something to view as 'positive.'


Doesn't really matter though until you define 'making it.'  If 4 of those 8 make the majors, but only one is an impact player and the rest are JAGs, then it's not nearly as appealing.

[Dale Berras Stash]

Doesn't really matter though until you define 'making it.'  If 4 of those 8 make the majors, but only one is an impact player and the rest are JAGs, then it's not nearly as appealing.

I know you meant Just Another Guys, but I instantly thought of:


and

[Traco Bucco]

Doesn't really matter though until you define 'making it.'  If 4 of those 8 make the majors, but only one is an impact player and the rest are JAGs, then it's not nearly as appealing.

I know you meant Just Another Guys, but I instantly thought of:


and

Hey--that's my line of work! :-)

[Dale Berras Stash]

Are you a JAG or in the business of giving Code Reds.
Needs more information.

[kansasfan]

I did find it interesting that he said at any time in a system (from AAA to GCL), there are only 4 future ML starters (1 position starter, 1 bench guy, 1 starting pitcher, 1 reliever).  He said he's crunched the numbers on it. 

This is very surprising to me in certain respects.  Sometimes I wonder how many teams really TRY to get minor leaguers to the majors.  I really envy the way the Rays have built their team.  In the past year, they have brought up Price (I know he was up at the very end of '08 as well), Neimann & Davis (3/5 of their rotation) plus Brignac.  And as deep as their system, there might still be a few more players that were in the minors on 1/1/09 (with all 4 of these guys) that will make it to the majors.

In the mid-90's, the Yankees brought up Jeter, Posada, Rivera & Williams.

But these are the exceptions.  We just have to REALLY hope that the Pirates are one of the exceptions of the future!

[Dale Berras Stash]

I did find it interesting that he said at any time in a system (from AAA to GCL), there are only 4 future ML starters (1 position starter, 1 bench guy, 1 starting pitcher, 1 reliever).  He said he's crunched the numbers on it. 

This is very surprising to me in certain respects.  Sometimes I wonder how many teams really TRY to get minor leaguers to the majors.  I really envy the way the Rays have built their team.  In the past year, they have brought up Price (I know he was up at the very end of '08 as well), Neimann & Davis (3/5 of their rotation) plus Brignac.  And as deep as their system, there might still be a few more players that were in the minors on 1/1/09 (with all 4 of these guys) that will make it to the majors.

In the mid-90's, the Yankees brought up Jeter, Posada, Rivera & Williams.

But these are the exceptions.  We just have to REALLY hope that the Pirates are one of the exceptions of the future!

Yeah, I agree...it was a real interesting quote.  Keep in mind, though, the Tampa is way ahead of the curve in developing talent to bring to the majors.

I've always stuck by the axiom that for each draft class:
Draft 50
Sign 30
Get 20 to AA
Get 1 starter and 1 role player (bench guy, bullpen guy)

[kansasfan]

I've often wondered what a "typical" graduating class for a draft should look like.  Good rule of thumb, although honestly I would have thought it would be more (and for the Pirates, it really needs to be more, like the Rays are trying to do).

I know we had a thread on this a little while back (but I'm too lazy and technologically-challenged to find it!), but based on this rule of thumb, how did DL's drafts do?  We might end up averaging 2 major leaguers per draft out of him.

[Dale Berras Stash]

2002 draft (43 selections) - Capps
2003 draft (50 selections) - Maholm, Gorzelanny
2004 draft (50 selections) - None (Bixler doesn't even count as a bench guy and Walker hasn't established himself either)
2005 draft (50 selections) - Cutch-22, maybe Pearce
2006 draft (50 selections) - None (Lincoln, Crotta, Owens maybe soon)
2007 draft (50 selections) - None (Moskos, Friday, Watson, La%#@more maybes)

So in 6 drafts that's 5 guys, with only Capps, Maholm, Gorz, and Cutch22 as any level of success.

DL sucked.  Not matter how you slice it.  Don't let a crappy article like Dejan's Sunday piece in the P-G say otherwise.