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Author Topic: Here's a reason Aki was better to sign than Kelly Johnson  (Read 5045 times)
WTM
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« Reply #195 on: May 05, 2010, 12:39:12 PM »

Let's not bring Young into this.  We've seen what he can do.  The Dodgers gave up on him as an infielder years ago and he's spent plenty of time with the Pirates proving them right.

I would still rather have given an opportunity to someone with a 2% chance of being a part of this team in 2011 and beyond than someone (Iwamura) with a 0% chance.

RJR

If you're talking regular secondbaseman, as things stood last fall, I'd have given Young the 0% chance and Iwamura the 2%.

Either way, at some point you have to make an effort to put a legitimate team on the field, even when you know it's going to be a bad team.  Young is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a secondbaseman, and has zero chance of ever being one.  If you're going to take the view that it doesn't matter how ridiculous your choices for regular players, why not just put Pearce at second?  You have to have some kind of minimum standard for what you put out there on a regular basis, and Young falls below mine.
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RJReynolds
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« Reply #196 on: May 05, 2010, 12:43:18 PM »

RJR you have stated some good arguments from the start against bringing in Aki but I agree with WTM that up to this point there has been no harm of Aki playing 2B (that is he has not been taking away at bats from anyone that I would have given them to).  At this point though I would much rather see if LaRoche can play there or if Walker can hit in the majors rather than watching Aki struggle any more.  LaRoche and Walker might be long term solutions at 2B but clearly Aki is not. It took me a month to see that while you were advocating this before the season.

It is going to be fairly hard to extricate ourselves from Aki, however. The only value he has to this team is as trade bait. Benching him all but assures that we get nothing whatsoever for him. It has only been a month...and you're right that if they were to now put Aki to the bench and call up Walker or move Laroche over it wouldn't be so bad...just a month of evaluation time lost. But I fear that the Pirates will just continue to ride it out because of what they have invested in him, as well as the fact that he will be a completely sunken cost once he moves to the bench. Thus my arguement that he never should have been here to begin with. Hopefully JR and NH will do what is right for the long term and sit his butt down permanently.

RJR
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RJReynolds
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« Reply #197 on: May 05, 2010, 12:46:20 PM »

Let's not bring Young into this.  We've seen what he can do.  The Dodgers gave up on him as an infielder years ago and he's spent plenty of time with the Pirates proving them right.

I would still rather have given an opportunity to someone with a 2% chance of being a part of this team in 2011 and beyond than someone (Iwamura) with a 0% chance.

RJR

If you're talking regular secondbaseman, as things stood last fall, I'd have given Young the 0% chance and Iwamura the 2%.

Either way, at some point you have to make an effort to put a legitimate team on the field, even when you know it's going to be a bad team.  Young is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a secondbaseman, and has zero chance of ever being one.  If you're going to take the view that it doesn't matter how ridiculous your choices for regular players, why not just put Pearce at second?  You have to have some kind of minimum standard for what you put out there on a regular basis, and Young falls below mine.

It's not that I don't see your point WTM. I do. I just don't think that the Pirates need to be concerned with keeping up appearances at this point. Every move...and I do mean every single one...needs to be done with just one thing in mind and that is the long term prospects of this team and its ability to compete on a playoff type level. I don't think that starting Young and not trading for Iwamura would have turned people away from the team. I do think, at this point, that continuing to start Aki over Walker/whomever very well may. this is the result of poor short term thinking in my view.

RJR
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Dmetz
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« Reply #198 on: May 05, 2010, 12:50:34 PM »

I don't think Young should come into the equation anywhere.  What could be done is swapping Laroche and Aki.  Aki's range is definitely down and he has experience at third and NH is nuts if he doesn't want to take a good look at Andy playing 2nd base.   (Right there are three good reasons to do it, there are others)

Play Aki @ 3rd and Laroche @ 2nd.  The infield would be marginally worse than it is now, but not greatly so.  You keep Aki in the lineup so when he turns around he has some value.   At the same time you get a good look at Andy, who is looking great bat-wise for 2nd.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2010, 12:53:39 PM by Dmetz » Logged
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« Reply #199 on: May 05, 2010, 01:01:01 PM »

Iwamura has a .236 BABIP right now, well below his career total and xBABIP.  His walk and K rates are both up just slightly and his ISO is pretty close to his career mark.  His approach hasn't changed statistically and his contact rate is virtually identical to his career numbers.  I agree that he looks awful right now (both at the plate and in the field), but don't be surprised if his bat ends up right around league average again.

That being said, I wouldn't be opposed to giving Walker a chance at second.  If he can succeed, Iwamura's chance of improving back to his career norm is not very relevant.  Young doesn't have a future as a regular, but Walker might.
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« Reply #200 on: May 05, 2010, 01:09:28 PM »

Aki is so far below his career production at this point, I'll be stunned if it doesn't turn out that he is playing injured. 
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« Reply #201 on: May 05, 2010, 01:15:41 PM »

There is virtually no chance his numbers don't improve imo.  If his defense and range stay where they are, we're basically screwed at the deadline imo.  It's hard to figure who would buy on Aki even after his bat comes back.    If his D were as reasonable as his career numbers indicate it would be like having Freddy Sanchez to trade again.   

His defense and range are just terribly disappointing.
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WTM
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« Reply #202 on: May 05, 2010, 01:30:08 PM »

I suspect this is going to be moot pretty soon.  Alvarez is going to come up and he's going to play third.  They can't exactly bench LaRoche if he continues to be arguably their best hitter.  We're probably looking at an in-season move to second.  I think it's getting close to inevitable.
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« Reply #203 on: May 05, 2010, 01:41:20 PM »

If the reason for not playing Laroche at 2B was defense, there is no reason to not try him there at this point.  
 
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« Reply #204 on: May 05, 2010, 02:31:34 PM »

This spring, NH made the correct decision to release Ramon Vasquez rather than bring him north.  The only reason the Pirates could have used to hang onto Vasquez is that he was owed $2 mil for this year.  Fortunately, the Pirates decided to eat the contract and selected a player (likely Young) who offered greater value to the team.  Clearly, all can debate if the initial decision to sign Vasquez was wise.  Nonetheless, the team cut him loose when they decided they had a better option, regardless of how much he was owed.  

With Aki, NH may soon be facing a similar decision.  To date, Aki has shown little ability to play 2nd (no range), and he has shown no speed on the basepaths.  Unless he is hitting a ton, I doubt he has any trade value.  In short, the Pirates need to be prepared to simply cut him loose and eat his contract if he continues to fail badly.  This decision would be that much easier if there is an internal option.  I have no idea if Walker is playing second adequately at AAA, and I would really question if LaRoche could simply slide over to 2nd mid-year with virtually no past experience.  I also would concur that Young has no future defensively at 2nd.

In the short term, if Aki is hurting so badly that he cannot perform and needs rest to help him heal, I would suggest sending him to the DL for a while and using some combo of Crosby, Young and Walker at 2nd.  If some time off would help, that could allow him to return with more strength and to play at a higher level.  That said, if his injuries have eroded his abilities as badly as his play has been to date, then the Pirates need to be ready to cut ties with him just like they did with Vasquez.  Walker and LaRoche would both come with a lot of risk, but Aki is fielding so poorly at 2nd that Young could be an upgrade defensively.    
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« Reply #205 on: May 06, 2010, 10:21:36 PM »

There is virtually no chance his numbers don't improve imo.  If his defense and range stay where they are, we're basically screwed at the deadline imo.  It's hard to figure who would buy on Aki even after his bat comes back.    If his D were as reasonable as his career numbers indicate it would be like having Freddy Sanchez to trade again.   

His defense and range are just terribly disappointing.
I think this was part of my pre-season hypothesis about Iwamura.  I said back in March or whatever month it was, that there was no circumstance that had him with the Pirates next season.  I said that if he plays well, he would go free agency or the Pirates would deal him.  We will never get to know how that one would have played out.

I also said back then, that if Iwamura was bad (I was wrong only by degree) the Pirates would not and should not keep him.  Well, he's been bad as bad can be. 

As for those who point to sabermetrics to count on Iwamura coming back, look at his GB/FB ratios and his GO/FO ratios.  Both are way up.  I don't know if out hitting coach tried the failed, hit the ball on the ground (see Chris Duffy for an idea on how well that works) to use your speed thing or what but Iwamura is hitting the ball on the ground more than he did before.  This different hitting result is a great way to make outs.

I stand by my initial thoughts on Iwamura.  He's given me no reason to change them.
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Dmetz
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« Reply #206 on: May 07, 2010, 01:50:46 PM »

There is virtually no chance his numbers don't improve imo.  If his defense and range stay where they are, we're basically screwed at the deadline imo.  It's hard to figure who would buy on Aki even after his bat comes back.    If his D were as reasonable as his career numbers indicate it would be like having Freddy Sanchez to trade again.   

His defense and range are just terribly disappointing.
I think this was part of my pre-season hypothesis about Iwamura.  I said back in March or whatever month it was, that there was no circumstance that had him with the Pirates next season.  I said that if he plays well, he would go free agency or the Pirates would deal him.  We will never get to know how that one would have played out.

I also said back then, that if Iwamura was bad (I was wrong only by degree) the Pirates would not and should not keep him.  Well, he's been bad as bad can be. 

As for those who point to sabermetrics to count on Iwamura coming back, look at his GB/FB ratios and his GO/FO ratios.  Both are way up.  I don't know if out hitting coach tried the failed, hit the ball on the ground (see Chris Duffy for an idea on how well that works) to use your speed thing or what but Iwamura is hitting the ball on the ground more than he did before.  This different hitting result is a great way to make outs.

I stand by my initial thoughts on Iwamura.  He's given me no reason to change them.

He doesn't and never has had much speed so there's no chance his GB ratio is intentional.  The sample size is small and his hitting should come back.  He has maintained a better than normal avg to obp spread through this slump so he is positioned pretty well to heat up and be back into his .275 .350 norms.    Aki returning to normal with the bat is a matter of a hot streak, really.  Singles and a few doubles mixed in.

I consider that part of it very likely.  He's running with normal ISO spreads and, like I said, an improved BA/OBP spread.   The only thing he needs to do to get right back to normal is have about a 14 for 40 run of normal type hits for him.  Singles, a few doubles, maybe a HR.  He definitely should be ok with the bat imo.  He has history and periphial numbers that ease my worries about him getting back into the .260-.270ish  -  .350 obp range.

I'm with everyone who is basically going "what the heck?" with his defense and range.  Very concerning to me.  That's not something that usually just flips around.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2010, 01:53:54 PM by Dmetz » Logged
GoBucs21
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« Reply #207 on: May 07, 2010, 04:56:26 PM »

There is virtually no chance his numbers don't improve imo.  If his defense and range stay where they are, we're basically screwed at the deadline imo.  It's hard to figure who would buy on Aki even after his bat comes back.    If his D were as reasonable as his career numbers indicate it would be like having Freddy Sanchez to trade again.   

His defense and range are just terribly disappointing.
I think this was part of my pre-season hypothesis about Iwamura.  I said back in March or whatever month it was, that there was no circumstance that had him with the Pirates next season.  I said that if he plays well, he would go free agency or the Pirates would deal him.  We will never get to know how that one would have played out.

I also said back then, that if Iwamura was bad (I was wrong only by degree) the Pirates would not and should not keep him.  Well, he's been bad as bad can be. 

As for those who point to sabermetrics to count on Iwamura coming back, look at his GB/FB ratios and his GO/FO ratios.  Both are way up.  I don't know if out hitting coach tried the failed, hit the ball on the ground (see Chris Duffy for an idea on how well that works) to use your speed thing or what but Iwamura is hitting the ball on the ground more than he did before.  This different hitting result is a great way to make outs.

I stand by my initial thoughts on Iwamura.  He's given me no reason to change them.

He doesn't and never has had much speed so there's no chance his GB ratio is intentional.  The sample size is small and his hitting should come back.  He has maintained a better than normal avg to obp spread through this slump so he is positioned pretty well to heat up and be back into his .275 .350 norms.    Aki returning to normal with the bat is a matter of a hot streak, really.  Singles and a few doubles mixed in.

I consider that part of it very likely.  He's running with normal ISO spreads and, like I said, an improved BA/OBP spread.   The only thing he needs to do to get right back to normal is have about a 14 for 40 run of normal type hits for him.  Singles, a few doubles, maybe a HR.  He definitely should be ok with the bat imo.  He has history and periphial numbers that ease my worries about him getting back into the .260-.270ish  -  .350 obp range.

I'm with everyone who is basically going "what the heck?" with his defense and range.  Very concerning to me.  That's not something that usually just flips around.
I agree the sample is small but it is what it is and likely the explanation for his slump.  I also disagree that Iwamura will get back to .270 any time soon. 

I don't think he makes it back to .270 before he is no longer a Pirate.  He's hitting just below .200 now.  To get to .270 by around July 4th, Iwamura is going to have to hit .400 over his next 202 ABs.  I don't see him doing that.

As for his defense, I said all along it was ordinary at best.  Now, his defense is awful.

I said he was ordinary in March, now Iwamura will have to get a lot better just to be ordinary.  He wasn't worth the money then, he certainly isn't worth the money now. 

Its time to sit him down or send him packing and see what Walker can do until Alvarez is ready to come up and Laroche moves to second.
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